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Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread


Jtm12180
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11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Think it's probably a major again.

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       

                    ADT-Version 9.0                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  04 SEP 2019    Time :   202015 UTC
      Lat :   30:32:59 N     Lon :   79:37:47 W

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.8     5.3     5.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 34 km

 Center Temp : +12.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -61.8C

 Scene Type : LARGE EYE  

 Subtropical Adjustment : OFF 

 Extratropical Adjustment : OFF 

 Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING 

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC      
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT 
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :  142nmi
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1012mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES16 
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.9 degrees 

05LP.GIF

Because everyone knows that Dvorak is the best intensity estimation method out there, firmly beating recon aircraft in every metric.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Because everyone knows that Dvorak is the best intensity estimation method out there, firmly beating recon aircraft in every metric.

 

 

um actually that means it's even stronger than a major because dvorak underestimates atlantic basin cyclones due to tropopause heights

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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

the point of my post is that dvorak blows and should only be used if there are literally no better alternatives

I agree with you 10000%. Although I do like its eye temp enhancement.

I've also been seeing posts on twitter talking about how strong Haiyan must be compared to Dorian at peak intensity because of how their dvorak presentation was different, so I have accumulated a bit of salt that I had to let out in a blaze of sarcasm.

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Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

No. Compartmentalizing this stuff is what allows trump to thrive. People who support him should be forced to make ridiculous posts that all of us can read and mock. 

Yeah maybe make less excuses for grown men who say stupid things and attempt to cover themselves with vain, petty theatrics that debase our hobby and its science in the bargain.  Maybe cut that.

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Some of the Trump posts have been removed.  It is one thing to talk about his statements regarding Dorian but this board is not the place for broader political discussions.

It is mind boggling and embarrassing that anybody at this board or any wx enthusiast in general would try to explain away the cone comment.  People are too quick to reflexively fall back into their corners.  

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Just saw that presser with the Dr. The Most Honorable PM of The Bahamas. I swear it reminded me of Baghdad Bob.....nothing much to see here....most buildings little to no damage...infrastructure in place....locally sourced response...and this was after saying it was a generational disaster. Made no sense. 

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