Rjay Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, foxstorm said: That's pretty much why I stopped visiting this forum. This is your first post 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FatherNature Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: So what are people suppose to discuss?? Even Mets on here and other online sites/TV have discussed Dorians wobbles and potential tracks. And some have speculated on Dorian hitting FL. Is that wishcasting? I have not read a post that stated "I want to see A full fledged CAT 5 Dorian hit Florida" It’s wonderful that other Mets have discussed that possibility, WHILE DISCUSSING THE OTHER POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. Again, what he was talking about was the people who ONLY talk about that scenario. They don’t have to say it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FatherNature Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: This is your first post I’m just happy after 8 years my post was the one that got him to say something. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: This is your first post 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 1 minute ago, FatherNature said: It’s wonderful that other Mets have discussed that possibility, WHILE DISCUSSING THE OTHER POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. Again, what he was talking about was the people who ONLY talk about that scenario. They don’t have to say it. So you make the jump from "Dorian seems to be still heading west" to people hoping for a direct hit on FL????? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxstorm Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: This is your first post I have not posted for at least five years, do they clear old post after a certain amount of time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: This is your first post it was short visit lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Not going to bother to count but for Dorian, I wonder how many individual model runs posted are on the left side of the NHC cone of uncertainty vs. the right side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Not going to bother to count but for Dorian, I wonder how many individual model runs posted are on the left side of the NHC cone of uncertainty vs. the right side... I thought about this as well. Just looking over the last few days, it seemed like 25-33% showed landfalls. That's a big problem considering any one of those ensemble runs could be correct. I think this is a lot of the reason why so many of the states are clearing out there coasts. There is way too much uncertainty on this one. The forecast seems to change with each model run. If it were minor changes, I think they would have been more conservative on evacuations. I heard at some point, one model spread was 70 miles in width. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FatherNature Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: So you make the jump from "Dorian seems to be still heading west" to people hoping for a direct hit on FL????? Clearly there is something you aren’t understanding, so let’s just agree to disagree. Maybe our understanding of the word wishcasting is different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, FatherNature said: Clearly there is something you aren’t understanding The weather..:D Meanwhile not to worry folks, the 12z NAM has a great handle on the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildFlower Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 15 hours ago, jburns said: Trump Tweets About Hurricane Dorian Hitting Alabama — and National Weather Services Issue Correction https://people.com/politics/trump-hurricane-dorian-hitting-alabama-national-weather-services-issue-correction/ Thought this was a joke till I clicked on the link... then I remembered who sent the tweet. I'll promise to behave and not say what I really think of the idiot. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 26 minutes ago, fyrfyter said: I thought about this as well. Just looking over the last few days, it seemed like 25-33% showed landfalls. That's a big problem considering any one of those ensemble runs could be correct. I think this is a lot of the reason why so many of the states are clearing out there coasts. There is way too much uncertainty on this one. The forecast seems to change with each model run. If it were minor changes, I think they would have been more conservative on evacuations. I heard at some point, one model spread was 70 miles in width. No doubt it is stressing me out; I have family in Wilmington, NC and Raleigh, NC although not as worried about Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: The weather..:D Meanwhile not to worry folks, the 12z NAM has a great handle on the situation. Hey did you find that post on your profile????? Ya know the one you said a mod deleted. Easily done! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 28 minutes ago, FatherNature said: Clearly there is something you aren’t understanding, so let’s just agree to disagree. Maybe our understanding of the word wishcasting is different. That is a huge leap to make from still moving west to someone wanting a direct hit on Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Getting bored of this storm. Ready for some blizzards up this way now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: That is a huge leap to make from still moving west to someone wanting a direct hit on Florida. Come on, we know EXACTLY the underlying implications of those posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Come on, we know EXACTLY the underlying implications of those posts. So if Dorian does take a turn to the north, and I post "Looks like Dorian is going to hit the SC coast" ...you assume I want to see a cat 3/4 hit SC??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FatherNature Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Come on, we know EXACTLY the underlying implications of those posts. I wouldn’t even bother. He doesn’t understand the point nor does he understand the concept of wishcasting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Hey did you find that post on your profile????? Ya know the one you said a mod deleted. Easily done! That makes absolutely no sense, but you are consistent anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: That makes absolutely no sense, but you are consistent anyway. Just now, Dr. Dews said: That makes absolutely no sense, but you are consistent anyway. And you are consistent as well...………. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 35 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: So if Dorian does take a turn to the north, and I post "Looks like Dorian is going to hit the SC coast" ...you assume I want to see a cat 3/4 hit SC??? No, because that is very plausible. A FL landfall at this point is not and hasn’t been for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Ok, I see these videos of people that are obviously well off that stayed. Why in the world would you not evacuate??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Ok, I see these videos of people that are obviously well off that stayed. Why in the world would you not evacuate??? Videos from the well off people appear to be from Freeport area, where wind gusts likely 120-130 range, which would destroy a wooden house, but won’t do too much damage to a newly built concrete house. These people likely know their house can withstand cat 3 winds and stayed, probably to ward off looting. My fathers house near Naples was hit with 140 winds in Irma and sustained minor roof damage and lost his linai. He could have stayed and been fine, but no power or water for weeks... New construction is solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: Videos from the well off people appear to be from Freeport area, where wind gusts likely 120-130 range, which would destroy a wooden house, but won’t do too much damage to a newly built concrete house. These people likely know their house can withstand cat 3 winds and stayed, probably to ward off looting. My fathers house near Naples was hit with 140 winds in Irma and sustained minor roof damage and lost his linai. He could have stayed and been fine, but no power or water for weeks... New construction is solid. Yeah, but when the surge is in your living room.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, psv88 said: Videos from the well off people appear to be from Freeport area, where wind gusts likely 120-130 range, which would destroy a wooden house, but won’t do too much damage to a newly built concrete house. These people likely know their house can withstand cat 3 winds and stayed, probably to ward off looting. My fathers house near Naples was hit with 140 winds in Irma and sustained minor roof damage and lost his linai. He could have stayed and been fine, but no power or water for weeks... New construction is solid. New construction is garbage. How cheap can we build a house? It's cheaper for it to be destroyed and rebuild it than to build something that will last. Look around, all the new buildings are built with glue and lumber scraps. Nothing is designed to last anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, fyrfyter said: New construction is garbage. How cheap can we build a house? It's cheaper for it to be destroyed and rebuild it than to build something that will last. Look around, all the new buildings are built with glue and lumber scraps. Nothing is designed to last anymore. New Houses aren’t built out of wood in Florida or the Bahamas. Strict building codes. Maybe where you live in Southern Ohio houses are made out of glue, but down there new construction is rock solid. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 This one's a real doozy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 turtlehurricane gonna be waiting a bit for that RI.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: turtlehurricane gonna be waiting a bit for that RI. . Is he really a met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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