September 2019 temperature forecast contest and results of Seasonal Max contest

[Roger Smith]

Make a note or enter early as the Labor Day weekend will be just getting underway ... it's the usual forecast challenge ... anomalies (vs 1981-2010 normals) for

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA:  +1.6

NYC:  +1.7

BOS:  +2.2

ORD:  +0.2

ATL:  +1.4

IAH:  +1.2

DEN:  +0.4

PHX:  +1.2

SEA:  +2.1

[wxallannj]

DCA:  +1.2

NYC:  +1.1

BOS:  +1.2

ORD:  +0.4

ATL:  +2.1

IAH:  +1.4

DEN:  +0.9

PHX:  +1.4

SEA:  +2.4

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.5      0.6      0.4       0.2      1.4    1.3        0.6      1.5     2.1  

[Tom]

DCA:  +0.3

NYC:  +0.2

BOS:  +0.3

ORD:  -0.3

ATL:  +1.5

IAH:  +1.5

DEN:  +1.2

PHX:  +1.5

SEA:  +1.6

[Scotty Lightning]

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

1.5      1.0      1.0     0.5      1.5    1.0      0.5      1.0     -0.5 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

0.5      0.3     0.3     0.6      0.2    2.7      2.6     1.2     2.1

[Roger Smith]

+2.4 _ +2.0 _ +3.3 ___ +0.8 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +3.6

[wxdude64]

LATE!!!

DCA:  +1.8

NYC:  +1.1

BOS:  +0.2

ORD:  -0.8

ATL:  +1.4

IAH:  +0.9

DEN:  +1.1

PHX:  +1.4

SEA:  +2.2

[bkviking]

Late again... but will get on track for winter lol 

 

DCA:  +1.8

NYC:  +1.5

BOS:  +1.0

ORD:  +0.5

ATL:  +1.2

 IAH:  +1.0

DEN:  +1.0

PHX:  +0.8

SEA:  +1.9

[Roger Smith]

Table of entries for September 2019

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Roger Smith _______________ +2.4 _+2.0 _+3.3 __ +0.8 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+3.6

BKViking _____ (-8%)________+1.8 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.2 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+0.9 _+1.8

wxdude64 ____ (-1%) _______+1.8 _+1.1 _+0.2 __ --0.8 _+1.4 _+0.9 ___ +1.1 _+1.4 _+2.2

hudsonvalley21 _____________+1.6 _+1.7 _+2.2 __ +0.2 _+1.4 _+1.2 ___ +0.4 _+1.2 _+2.1

Scotty Lightning ____________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _--0.5

___ Consensus _____________+1.5 _+1.1 _+1.0 __ +0.4 _+1.4 _+1.3 ___ +1.0 _+1.4 _+2.1

wxallannj __________________+1.2 _+1.1 _+1.2 __ +0.4 _+2.1 _+1.4 ___ +0.9 _+1.4 _+2.4

DonSutherland1 ____________ +0.5 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +0.2 _+1.4 _+1.3 ___ +0.6 _+1.5 _+2.1

RodneyS __________________ +0.5 _+0.3 _+0.3 __ +0.6 _+0.2 _+2.7 ___ +2.6 _+1.2 _+2.1 

Tom ______________________+0.3 _+0.2 _+0.3 __ --0.3 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.2 _+1.5 _+1.6

___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

[Roger Smith]

First reports on anomalies and forecasts ...

____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_8th ________ (7d) ___________ +2.7 _--1.6 _--0.4 __--1.1 _+6.4 _+4.6 ___ +5.6 _+6.5 _+4.6

_8th _______(p14d) ___________ +1.5 _--0.8 __0.0 __+0.7 _+6.0 _+4.5 ___ +3.5 _+3.5 _+2.8

_8th _______(p24d) ___________ +2.0 __0.0 _+1.0 __+1.5 _+4.0 _+3.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+1.0

[Roger Smith]

Reports on anomalies and forecasts ...

____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_8th ________ (7d) ___________ +2.7 _--1.6 _--0.4 __--1.1 _+6.4 _+4.6 ___ +5.6 _+6.5 _+4.6

_8th _______(p14d) ___________ +1.5 _--0.8 __0.0 __+0.7 _+6.0 _+4.5 ___ +3.5 _+3.5 _+2.8

_8th _______(p24d) ___________ +2.0 __0.0 _+1.0 __+1.5 _+4.0 _+3.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+1.0

 

16th _______ (15d) ____________+4.2 __0.0 _+1.0*_ +2.1 _+8.2 _+4.5 ___ +6.0*_+3.9 _+3.1

16th ______ (p22d) ____________+3.0 __0.0 _+0.3 __+4.5 _+6.6 _+5.0 ___ +5.5 _+2.7 _+2.0

16th _______(p30d) ____________+3.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 __+3.5 _+5.0 _+5.0 ___ +5.0 _+3.0 _+2.5

 

23rd ______ (22d) _____________ +4.2 _+0.6 _+1.8*__+4.4 _+7.5 _+3.7 ___ +5.9 _+2.5 _+2.4

23rd ______ (p30d) ____________ +4.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 __+4.0 _+8.0 _+4.0 ___ +6.0 _+1.5 _+1.5

___ final anomalies ____________+5.5 _+2.4 _+3.1 __+4.8 _+8.9 _+4.0 ___ +5.9 _+0.7 _+1.5

16th _ Went a day late as NWS had not updated all CF6 on 15th, BOS and DEN still not updated so used daily climate reports to estimate. The forecasts to 14th were not out as much as 15th data might imply (DCA to BOS, ORD, DEN) because 15th was very warm, still, they were low by about a degree; the rest were fairly accurate. ... Have now projected to 22nd and end of month, the GFS continues quite warm in all regions 23rd to 30th. Month will likely end quite a bit warmer than forecast range for central and DEN. Seasonal max had no new developments despite 98F at DCA on 12th, the table back in August thread is likely final now, will confirm around 25th.

23rd _ Some of the stations have not updated since the 8th so I had to estimate their anomalies so far. Since the seven-day NWS forecast takes us to the 29th, I have added day 8 from the GFS to the one forecast added today although most of the NWS forecasts I used had updated through Monday 30th (I am a bit late getting to this today). This will make it possible to post provisional scoring by tomorrow.

1st Oct _ Final anomalies are now posted, and scoring will be adjusted very soon as most of the estimates proved to be correct.. 

 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for September, 2019

 

Scoring is based on provisional anomalies in previous post. 

* one point late deduction included

^ scores based on max-60 rule _ 

__ the progression used was 60, 53, 46, 39, 32, 25, 18, 11, 4 setting normal between levels or at zero if lower than all.

__ this was modified to a more equitable progression for ORD and ATL where most of the raw scores were lower than 30.

__ the progression used for those two locations was 60, 55, 50 etc. 

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH___cent__ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west __ TOTAL

Roger Smith _______________ 60^_ 92 _ 96 __ 248 __ 60^_ 55^_ 60 __175 __423__ 53^_ 66 _ 58 __ 177 ____ 600

RodneyS __________________ 18^_ 58 _ 44 __ 120 __ 55^_ 25^_ 76__ 156 __ 276 __ 60^_ 90 _ 88 __ 238 ____ 514 

wxallannj __________________25^_ 74 _ 62 __ 161 __ 40^_ 60^_ 48 __ 148 __ 309 __ 25^_ 86 _ 82 __ 191 ____ 502

hudsonvalley21 ____________39^_ 86 _ 74 __ 199 __35^_ 40^_ 44 __ 119 __ 318 __ 04^_ 90 _ 88 __ 182 ____ 500

 ___ Consensus ____________32^_ 74 _ 58 __ 164 __ 40^_ 40^_ 46 __ 126 __ 290 __ 32^_ 86 _ 88 __ 206 ____ 496

BKViking __________________53^_ 82 _ 58 __ 193 __ 50^_ 30^_ 40 __ 120 __ 313 __ 32^_ 96 _ 94 __ 222 _ 535

_____________ (-8%) ________ 49^_ 75 _ 53 __ 177 __ 46^_ 28^_ 37 __ 111 __ 288 __ 29^_ 88 _ 86 __ 203 ____ 491

wxdude64 ____ (-1%) _______52^*_ 81*_ 42__ 175 __ 20 _ 40^_ 38 __ 098 __ 273 __ 39^_ 85*_ 85*__209 ____ 482

Scotty Lightning ____________32^_ 72 _ 58 __ 162 __ 50^_ 55^_ 40 __ 145 __ 307 __ 11^_ 94 _ 60 __ 165 ____ 472

Tom _______________________04^_ 56 _ 44 __ 104 __ 25^_ 55^_ 50 __ 130 __ 234 __ 46^_ 84 _ 98 __ 228 ____ 462

DonSutherland1 ____________18^_ 64 _ 46 __ 128 __ 35^_ 40^_ 46 __ 121 __ 249 __ 18^_ 84 _ 88 __ 190 ____ 439

___ Normal _________________ 00 _ 52 _ 38 __ 090 __ 30^_ 00 _ 20 __ 050 __ 140 __ 00 _ 86 _ 70 __ 156 _____ 296

================================================================

 

Extreme forecasts

DCA __ +5.5 is warmer than all forecasts, Roger Smith (+2.4) has a win.

NYC __ +2.4 is warmer than all forecasts, Roger Smith (+2.0) has a win.

BOS __ +3.1 is closest to the warmest forecast (Roger Smith +3.3) for another win.

ORD, ATL, IAH and DEN are all likely to finish well above all forecasts. Roger Smith has a win for ORD, wxallannj for ATL and RodneyS has two for IAH, DEN.

PHX __ +0.7 is lower than all forecasts. Due to late penalty, BKViking (+0.9) has a "no decision" while Scotty Lightning (+1.0) has high score and the win.

SEA __ As the outcome is +1.5, Tom has second coldest forecast and high score for a win. Scotty L has a loss. Normal also gets a win. 

 

[Roger Smith]

<<<<< =====  ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-Sep 2019 ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>

  

 A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. 

Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. 

  

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL

  

RodneyS ________________555 _696 _629__1880 __597 _541 _730__1868__3748 __ 617 _618 _596 __ 1831___ 5579

 

___ Consensus __________627_ 750 _634 __2011__562 _532 _676 __1770 __3781 __ 505 _608 _566 __1679 ____5460

 

DonSutherland.1 _________551 _726 _547 __1824 __539 _532 _692 __1763 __ 3587 __ 505 _644_ 606__1755____ 5342

Roger Smith _____________ 660 _668 _634 __1962 __502 _515 _636 __1653 __3615 __ 624 _550 _548 __1722____5337

wxdude64 _______________617 _722 _589 __1928 __585 _486 _651 __1722 __ 3650 __ 525 _594 _562 __1681____5331

wxallannj ________________613 _672 _662__1947 __482 _594 _652 __1728 __ 3675 __ 457 _614 _558 __1629____5304

hudsonvalley21 __________576 _762 _678__2016 __519 _574 _672 __1765 __3781 __ 359 _612 _542 __1513____5294

BKViking ________________ 646 _720 _631 __1997 __525 _474 _620 __1619 __3616 __ 445 _554 _551 __1550 ____5166

Scotty Lightning__________557 _692 _613 __1862 __524 _573 _642 __1739 __3601 __ 373 _564 _464 __1401 ____5002

Tom _____________________487 _665 _527 __1679 __553 _437 _652 __1642 __3321 __ 411 _598 _545 __1554 ____4875

 ___ Normal ______________ 402 _692 _528 __1622 __532 _360 _620 __1512 __3134 __ 341 _601 _411__1353 ____4487

Stebo (4/9) ______________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __ 1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ___ 2225

 RJay (4/9) _______________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __ 1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ___ 2083

tplbge (1/9) ______________  90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___72 __ 88 __32 __ 192 ____ 684

 smerby (1/9) ______________94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___432 ___50 __ 82 __ 96 __ 228 ____ 660

Jakkelwx (1/9) _____________92 __ 68 __ 30 __ 190 __ 50 __ 82 __ 68 __ 200 ___390___ 80 __ 90 __ 88 __ 258 ____ 648

 _______________________________________________________________________

 

 Best scores in each category 

_ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine).

 _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above.

_ July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also

___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher). 

  

FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine

  

RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 3 ____ 3 ___1 ___2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___2 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY

 ___Consensus__________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

DonSutherland.1 ________0 ___1 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0

Roger Smith ____________ 5 ___1 ___2 ____ 4 ____ 3 ___3 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___2 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 __ JUL, SEP

wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___0 ___1*____2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___1 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN

wxallannj _______________ 1 ___2 ___1 ____ 1____ 0 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 _________ 1 ___3 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN

BKViking ________________0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1*___0 ___0 ____ 0

Scotty Lighning _________ 1 ___1 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 __ AUG

Tom ____________________ 0 ___2 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 2* ___ 0

___ Normal _____________ 1 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB

 RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

smerby _________________0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

 jakkelwx _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0

 

 __________________________________________________________________________________

  

Extreme forecasts  

  

 STANDINGS to date in 2019

 

 Roger Smith _________20-6

 RodneyS ____________11-4

DonSutherland1 ______ 7-0

wxallannj ____________ 7-2

Scotty Lightning ______ 6-1

Normal ______________ 5-1

hudsonvalley21 _______4-0

Tom __________________3-1

wxdude64 ___________ 3-0

Stebo ________________3-1

BKViking ____________ 2-0*^

 RJay ________________ 1-0

 tplbge _______________1-0

 Jakkelwx ____________1-0

 *retained if Jakkelwx plays fewer than three.

 ^ no decision for BOS, SEA in Aug (highest raw score reduced by late penalty) 

^ also no decision for PHX (Sep) same reason.

 ______________________________________________________________________________

 

[Roger Smith]

Scoring has been completely updated now. 

FYI, BKV would have one point less than second place DonS without any late penalties (175 points in total). Tom is down 31 on one set of late penalties, but would remain a bit behind Scotty L. Wxdude64 has only lost nine points, but that would move him ahead of me into third (fourth counting BKV who has one more point than wxdude64 when late penalties are added). As I mentioned in a previous post, I don't really think BKV has lost quite that much ground as the later forecasts may have gained insight (which is why we have late penalties more than as a punitive measure). In the two months where BKV took significant numbers of points, he did manage to finish middle of the pack and had some high scores (best forecasts) at least on raw scores. If you assume that half the lost points would have remained lost with less insight, then adding 80 would get BKV closer to the chase pack but no further ahead (his total is now 128 behind hudsonvalley21). The chase pack has five within about 50 points, but RodneyS retains a lead of 237 over DonSutherland1. I worked out that over three months remaining in this year's contest, you can gain 216 points by being 0.4 F closer on each location.

[Roger Smith]

Seasonal Max contest -- final results

 

Scoring for seasonal max 2019 -- departures (F deg) from actual values

___________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ DEN_PHX_SEA

Actual values ______________ 99 _ 95 _ 98 ___ 95 _100 _103 ___ 101 _115 _ 95 ___ Total dep

01 _ wxallannj _______________2 __ 1 __ 3 ____ 1 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 1 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 14

02 _ RodneyS _______________ 0 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 0 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 3 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 15

t03 _hudsonvalley21 _________2 __ 5 __ 2 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 0 ______ 1 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 17

t03 _DonSutherland1 ________1 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 1 __ 2 __ 1 ______ 3 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 17

05 _ BKViking _______________1 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 3 ______ 1 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 18 

06 _ Tom ___________________ 0 __ 4 __ 2 ____ 5 __ 1 __ 1 ______ 2 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 21

07 _ wxdude64 _____________ 3 __ 5 __ 3 ____ 5 __ 1 __ 1 ______ 1 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 22

08 _ Scotty Lightning _______ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 1 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 6 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 22

09 _ Roger Smith ___________ 8 __ 9 __ 7 ____ 8 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 3 __ 5 __ 5 _____ 48

 

Seasonal Max forecasts for 2019

Roger Smith _______________ 107 _ 104 _ 105 __ 103 _ 101 _ 101 __ 104 _ 120 _ 100

wxdude64 _________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 __ 100 __ 99 _ 104 __ 102 _ 118 __ 95

Scotty Lightning ____________102 _ 100 __ 98 ___ 96 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 95 _ 117 __ 93

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 101 _ 100 __ 96 ___ 99 __ 99 _ 103 __ 100 _ 116 __ 94

BKViking __________________ 100 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 100 _ 117 __ 94

DonSutherland1 ____________100 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 96 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 98 _ 117 __ 93

Tom _______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 96 ___100 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 97

 RodneyS ___________________99 __ 98 __  96 ___ 95 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92

wxallannj ___________________97 __ 96 __ 95 ___ 96 __ 98 _ 100 __ 100 _ 116 __ 95

=============================================================================

Congrats to wxallannj for a winning total of 14 deg just ahead of RodneyS at 15, with hudsonvalley21 and DonSutherland1 tied third at 17.

The best performances in regions were:

_ Eastern (DCA, NYC, BOS) __ best score RodneyS (5 deg) __ second place wxallannj, BKViking, DonSutherland, Tom (all 6 deg)

_ Central (ORD, ATL, IAH) ___ best score RodneyS (3 deg) ___ second place Don Sutherland and Scotty Lightning (both 4 deg)

_ Western (DEN, PHX, SEA) _ best score wxallannj (2 deg) __ second place hudsonvalley21 (3 deg) __ third wxdude64, BKV (4 deg)

 

The most perfect forecasts went to RodneyS with two. 

Our consensus forecasts would have scored 16 points, good for third place. We were generally a bit too high for NYC and ORD, otherwise quite close as a group to the other seven.

Given the number of hot days, it's perhaps somewhat surprising that the outcomes were all rather close to seasonal normals, but perhaps that was due to high humidity which can make it difficult for readings to get much past 100 degrees (apart from PHX which also had a rather average outcome despite a lot of sustained heat waves). 

The next special contest will be seasonal snowfall and that will be introduced in the November thread.