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September Weather Discussion 2019


dryslot
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34 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

59.3F  Partly sunny with cirrus patches.   High was 67F at midnight and temps fell into the 50's by 5am.  Tried all day to get back to 60F but looks like a fail.  

Similar fate here. High 67F after midnight. Afternoon high of 63F and already back down to 58F. Should be 30s again here tonight.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Hard to believe it was sunny U50s here and HVN was 80F.

Yeah this was the first day that really felt like an autumn air mass in the sense that despite full sunshine, it could not warm above the mid/upper 50s this afternoon. 

We've had a few cooler afternoons but all of them so far have included clouds/low ceilings or rain.  This was that first time where it was like, "yep, that sun isn't going to get it done" today.  55F and full sun and decent mixing is definitely a cool air mass.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Um

4 interceptions by the QB's and the QB's also fumbled twice, both recovered by Bills. Pat's also sacked the Bills QB 5 times.  Pat's twice had 1st and goal and only came away with 3 points. Pats should have been up 21-0. 

The game was similar to the Clemson -NC game yesterday, Clemson played poorly on offense, much like the Pat's did today, the poor play by the offense led to the game being close. 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Um

Bills QB's threw 4 interceptions and they were sacked 5 times. And the QB's also fumbled twice but both were recovered by the Bills.   Pat's twice had 1st and goal and only came away with 3 points. The Pat's easily could have  been ahead 20-0. 

Today's game was similar to the Clemson-NC game yesterday, Clemson's offense played poorly, much like the Pat's offense did today, the poor play by the offense led to the game being close. 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Bills QB's threw 4 interceptions and they were sacked 5 times. And the QB's also fumbled twice but both were recovered by the Bills.   Pat's twice had 1st and goal and only came away with 3 points. The Pat's easily could have  been ahead 20-0. 

Today's game was similar to the Clemson-NC game yesterday, Clemson's offense played poorly, much like the Pat's offense did today, the poor play by the offense led to the game being close. 

 

 

 

I think the Buffalo defense played unreal

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Already in the 40s at 7pm.... Frost Advisory in effect. 

Probably will have the heat on tonight, this afternoon just didn't warm the inside up like it has in the past. 

Nice.  We'll be doing the heat later in the week.  In the meantime, great sleeping weather.

58/35

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On 9/26/2019 at 6:50 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Do me a favor . Track that forecast with the actual highs. See how much higher they are. You’ll have min 2 days of 80’s and max of 4 by the time this hot period for the time of year is over 

Looks like I might reach 75* or so on Wednesday.  If the front comes through sooner, perhaps not even that.

I'm going to go on a limb and say we will have had 0 days of 80's.

 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

18z GFS is a step in the right direction for Friday...

Good time for a reminder that the FV3 continues to have a cold bias, especially with increasing lead time. In other words, the cold bias gets worse as you move towards the end of the run.

Unfortunately something we're going to have to mentally QC out for the time being until they can upgrade/fix it (but GEFS moving to FV3 is a priority first). 

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Good time for a reminder that the FV3 continues to have a cold bias, especially with increasing lead time. In other words, the cold bias gets worse as you move towards the end of the run.

Unfortunately something we're going to have to mentally QC out for the time being until they can upgrade/fix it (but GEFS moving to FV3 is a priority first). 

Good to know... it's complete hogwash that run but still the first real run of the season with real cold season synoptics.

I'll just post that so you can field questions of "How much for Rangley?" during your next shift, ha.

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Good to know... it's complete hogwash that run but still the first real run of the season with real cold season synoptics.

I'll just post that so you can field questions of "How much for Rangley?" during your next shift, ha.

It's definitely going to be a problem for 240 hour snow map rip and readers.

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41 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Good time for a reminder that the FV3 continues to have a cold bias, especially with increasing lead time. In other words, the cold bias gets worse as you move towards the end of the run.

Unfortunately something we're going to have to mentally QC out for the time being until they can upgrade/fix it (but GEFS moving to FV3 is a priority first). 

Hmm , did a damn good job with Montana 

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26 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Some slight overcast, think it’s enough to keep us from going low?

Yeah the high cirrus moving in might be the difference between widespread 30-32F and a bunch of 33-37F type stuff tomorrow morning.

The ASOS stations at MPV and MVL had wind until just the 8pm hour they are now reading calm.  But I think we'll both be squarely into frost advisory range of mid-30s.

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