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September Weather Discussion 2019


dryslot
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Well it's time to hang it up. A few short months of dark, dreary wx and that sun angle comes climbing back again so we look on the bright side. The drab, dark, rainy Oct./Nov. months tend to go quickly and hopefully we coast right through those awful months. Beyond that, deeper into winter, let's all hope it's another gradient winter where the ski resorts are pummeled with 10 ft. Depths, yet there is literally a few inches of snow the majority of SNE...and we rock a few bare ground 80's in Morch. Let's hope for this type of perfect winter.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

Well it's time to hang it up. A few short months of dark, dreary wx and that sun angle comes climbing back again so we look on the bright side. The drab, dark, rainy Oct./Nov. months tend to go quickly and hopefully we coast right through those awful months. Beyond that, deeper into winter, let's all hope it's another gradient winter where the ski resorts are pummeled with 10 ft. Depths, yet there is literally a few inches of snow the majority of SNE...and we rock a few bare ground 80's in Morch. Let's hope for this type of perfect winter.

What a gradient that was. Epic amount of winter rain systems. 15?

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Beautiful here. Sunny and cracking 70 shortly.

Yeah it could be 10-15F warmer and it would be a bit more COC.  It is a tad on the cool side despite the sun...sun doesn’t have that warmth it did a couple months ago.  Like you want to go out in shorts and a t-shirt and then step outside and it’s like nope.

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18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it could be 10-15F warmer and it would be a bit more COC.  It is a tad on the cool side despite the sun...sun doesn’t have that warmth it did a couple months ago.  Like you want to go out in shorts and a t-shirt and then step outside and it’s like nope.

That will be us later this week. Temp is actually down a notch to 69 now, but with no wind it feels really nice. 

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Well it's time to hang it up. A few short months of dark, dreary wx and that sun angle comes climbing back again so we look on the bright side. The drab, dark, rainy Oct./Nov. months tend to go quickly and hopefully we coast right through those awful months. Beyond that, deeper into winter, let's all hope it's another gradient winter where the ski resorts are pummeled with 10 ft. Depths, yet there is literally a few inches of snow the majority of SNE...and we rock a few bare ground 80's in Morch. Let's hope for this type of perfect winter.

Can we get a 'troll' emoticon?

What a COC today is.  70/49 with a nice breeze.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it could be 10-15F warmer and it would be a bit more COC.  It is a tad on the cool side despite the sun...sun doesn’t have that warmth it did a couple months ago.  Like you want to go out in shorts and a t-shirt and then step outside and it’s like nope.

Ah 77, no shoes no problem.  Windows,sliders wide open, breeze blowing,  low dews, watching 2 football games, ribs on the grill with corn on the cob. Cukes, tomatoes, green beans, basil, oregano salad all picked this morning. Pats and Giants ,Raiders Football on rotate,  dogs, chillaxin, last throes of summer. We take

20190929_135633.jpg

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Ah 77, no shoes no problem.  Windows,sliders, watching 2 football games, ribs on the grill with corn on the cob. Cukes, tomatoes, green beans, basil, oregano salad all picked this morning. Pats and Giants ,Raiders Football on rotate,  dogs, chillaxin, last throes of summer. We take

20190929_135633.jpg

Pics of the food?

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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ah 77, no shoes no problem.  Windows,sliders wide open, breeze blowing,  low dews, watching 2 football games, ribs on the grill with corn on the cob. Cukes, tomatoes, green beans, basil, oregano salad all picked this morning. Pats and Giants ,Raiders Football on rotate,  dogs, chillaxin, last throes of summer. We take

20190929_135633.jpg

 Your dog watching what dogs the Bills really are.... 

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56 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ah 77, no shoes no problem.  Windows,sliders wide open, breeze blowing,  low dews, watching 2 football games, ribs on the grill with corn on the cob. Cukes, tomatoes, green beans, basil, oregano salad all picked this morning. Pats and Giants ,Raiders Football on rotate,  dogs, chillaxin, last throes of summer. We take

Damn on my way to your house haha.

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On 9/27/2019 at 8:20 AM, snowman21 said:

Mostly automated the same way point and click is. NWS can obviously tweak specific grid points, but a computer does most of the work.

 

On 9/27/2019 at 8:26 AM, weatherwiz said:

I've always been extremely curious about how this works. Perhaps @OceanStWx has gone into great depth about this before, but when it comes to these snow map, if they are all computer generated with human tweaks, how exactly are they derived? Is it a blend of numerous forecast models, an in-house model, one particular model? And what algorithms are used in them...or are they just derived from the model snowfall algorithms (like 10:1 ratio or Kucheria). But then with the human tweaking...across this region that can't be particularly easy, especially if you have little experience/knowledge of the terrain and geographical influences. 

 

GTFO with Kuchera ;)

Basically at all NWS offices the forecasters will create grids for temps, PoP, QPF, snow ratio. From that you get Wx grids, and from that you can determine where snow you be output in a snow grid. You can also choose how you want to display it temporally. A one hour grid will produce a more realistic snow fall than a 3 or 6 hour grid that has parameters averaged over that time. 

It is up to the forecaster whether they want to hand draw grids, pick a model of the day, or use some form of a blend. Personally I use a blended approach, and then tweak for things like local effects or forecast position of banding. 

We have grids every hour with thousands of grid points, so we rarely are editing just one gridpoint. Rather we try and lock down the base grids and everything sort of fall out from there (i.e. if your temp, dewpoint, PoP, QPF, snow ratio are good, then your Wx and snowfall should be good too). We could automate a lot of that, but you would lose local knowledge and QC. Like we don't want to blend GFS 2 m temps in a damming scenario, but the computer doesn't know that.

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