September Weather Discussion 2019

[rclab]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting, so you think it'll take that long - 

My guess, no. It could take that long.   Like anything in this weather game, timing change is the last frontier of technological advancement because as is ... we're really not that good at it.  How often does the ambit of tech and its constituent entangled web of interconnected methods all tell us that it'll definitely get hot(cold) in two weeks, only to have it get hot(cold) in a month?  Meanwhile, forecast' or not, I've seen whole scale changes sweep through continents in a single day.   Just as well ... I've seen step down alterations, where the canvas seemed to carry paint of both regimes, simultaneously, for a long while before committing.   

However, I don't think the latter is favored this year?  Probably not favored in any year since 2000 for that matter, and most likely not so in the future.

Here's why:    Global Warming ... quite plausibly  ( so admittedly supposition ) another in a myriad of emergent properties no one knew would happen because of GW jolting, too.

How's that for necessarily terse ... One could write Flowers For Algernon quality prose to describe this shit, and in today's society it seems mice would ironically demonstrate the better comprehension.   

Short version, when pattern changes occur for colder or hotter, the difference before and after tend to be greater than they used to be.

"Used to be" - that always meant Millennial time spans... But in this context? Single normal human live's are afflicted.  And changes are empirically observable in the environment emerging at a faster rate than model(s) projected GW impacts would register. 

So, that specifically behavior, the difference between warm and cool patterns, may not be a metric that's evaluated in climate models anyway.  They're not really designed for that discrete level probability.  But we're seeing that right now, today, in the models ( for example). 570 to nearly 580 dm thickness's pervade warm sectors, while snow falls in clumps 500 km away, and not merely caused by local topographic forcing, rather ... at synoptic scales.   Systems are rich in gradients these days. And this is true at pattern boundaries, as well; which is intuitively pleasing because ding ding ding, events happen ( or tend to ) at those seams. 

That said ... the way Global Warming effects all this seasonal change stuff is interesting - and I have other Mets that agree with me ... even though saying  that no longer caries the gravitas it used to ... Wild digression in-coming: this post Industrial Revolution has given so much proxy and power ( actually, more succinctly ...the ability to evade the consequence of bad decision making) to the individual, they no longer have to rely upon the million 500 thousand years of evolutionary cooperative instincts to survive. Thus, affording them the ability to flout advice. People deny this shit because they can. So, when it feels better to watch porn, eat twinkies, soak in psychotropic drugs either literally or via emanation, the "get to" impugn the very sources that were always charged with the responsibility to veracity. 

Distrust and fake truth paranoia emerged along the way, and is coming to a pernicious parallax in history - and is causing a fracturing of the very institutions and "faith" in the system the Industry helped create ...  Man, that's a special kind of f'ed right there.   And so... bring this home, no one believes that the Hadley Cell is bloated and hot.   ( see how I did that ...? )

Anyway, the polar regions ...although empirically warming at a faster rate - like dem total full-of-crap dumbass scientists report - are still mightily cold by comparison to the lower latitudes ( Hadley). The gradient between, in the interim ( ...prolly the next 10 to 50 years depending upon which climate modeled apocalypse one ascribes to...) is larger than it [ probably ] has been in the preceding ...well, epoch. 

It's probably time to start thinking in terms of having crossed over into a new epoch and in fact, I've heard the phrasing, holocene vs anthropocene bandied about in recent years.  Makes sense to me...  Humanity, for better or worse, is a geological force.  Our power registers above the back ground din of other processes that have come in and out of the greater "Gaia" system - but did/do not comparatively leave/have anywhere close to size and vibrating footprint.  That, imho, put us on the list, even if we are at the lower end of the significance scale.  And, seeing as those totally dumbass scientist warn that long after we've completed our [ clear intent of .. ] phasing ourselves out ... the effects of us having been here will continue to rage onward for 10,000 years, hm -   

So for the next few decades we'll likely have autumns ( and springs for that matter ) where dividing lines are enhancing baroclinicity. Lower tropospheric temperature variances between "cold" and "hot" regions, is greater.  When the sun slips below the Equator ... that gets more noticeable too, because it's ability to modulate the cold regions is obviously attenuated(ing).  Comparing pre-Industrial or now... warm arieas below the 35th ( or so) latitude stay warmer later as seasonal migration inextricably encroaches from the N...  

 

Perhaps a defendant of Algernon will deposit seeds on the grounds above Charlie Gordon’s grave and the flowers will take care of themselves.

[Torch Tiger]

what a summer. If we only had a hurricane impact, this would easily have been a top 5 all-timer. As I said last month, it seems we'll flip to winter around Oct.10th or so. Maybe the 15th. Then we can drop summer hobbies such as weather and focus on enjoyable winter ones.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

what a summer. If we only had a hurricane impact, this would easily have been a top 5 all-timer. As I said last month, it seems we'll flip to winter around Oct.10th or so. Maybe the 15th. Then we can drop summer hobbies such as weather and focus on enjoyable winter ones.

 

[Torch Tiger]

16 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

What's happened to this forum? I remember it having a cold, snow bias pretty much all the time. I guess I'm still one of the hardcore old school cold and snow lovers on here. I'd slam the button for a -12 anomaly every month of the year without hesitation and for >200" snow each winter.
 

It does have a cold and snow bias. Show me one seasonal wknter forecast by a member here, pro met or otw. on that had/has + temp anomalies and - snow. Not happening 

[weathafella]

47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting, so you think it'll take that long - 

My guess, no. It could take that long.   Like anything in this weather game, timing change is the last frontier of technological advancement because as is ... we're really not that good at it.  How often does the ambit of tech and its constituent entangled web of interconnected methods all tell us that it'll definitely get hot(cold) in two weeks, only to have it get hot(cold) in a month?  Meanwhile, forecast' or not, I've seen whole scale changes sweep through continents in a single day.   Just as well ... I've seen step down alterations, where the canvas seemed to carry paint of both regimes, simultaneously, for a long while before committing.   

However, I don't think the latter is favored this year?  Probably not favored in any year since 2000 for that matter, and most likely no so in the future.

Here's why:    Global Warming

How's that for necessarily terse ... One could write Flowers For Algernon quality prose to describe this shit, and in today's society it seems mice would ironically demonstrate the better comprehension.   

Short version, when patterns changes occur for colder or hotter, the difference before and after tend to be greater than they used to be.

"Used to be" - that always meant Millennial time spans... But in this context? Single normal human live's are afflicted.  And changes are empirically observable in the environment emerging at a faster rate than model(s) projected GW impacts would register. 

So, that specifically behavior, the difference between warm and cool patterns, may not be a metric that's evaluated in climate models anyway.  They're not really designed for that discrete level probability.  But we're seeing that right now, today, in the models ( for example). 570 to nearly 580 dm thickness's pervade warm sectors, while snow falls in clumps 500 km away, and not merely caused by local topographic forcing, rather ... at synoptic scales.   Systems are rich in gradients these days. And this is true at pattern boundaries, as well; which is intuitively pleasing because ding ding ding, events happen ( or tend to ) at those seams. 

That said ... the way Global Warming effects all this seasonal change stuff is interesting - and I have other Mets that agree with me ... even though saying  that no longer caries the gravitas it used to ... Wild digression in-coming: this post Industrial Revolution has given so much proxy and power ( actually, more succinctly ...the ability to evade the consequence of bad decision making) to the individual, they no longer have to rely upon the million 500 thousand years of evolutionary cooperative instincts to survive. Thus, affording them the ability to flout advice. People deny this shit because they can. So, when it feels better to watch porn, eat twinkies, soak in psychotropic drugs either literally or via emanation, the "get to" impugn the very sources that were always charged with the responsibility to veracity. 

Distrust and fake truth paranoia emerged along the way, and is coming to a pernicious parallax in history - and is causing a fracturing of the very institutions and "faith" in the system the Industry helped create ...  Man, that's a special kind of f'ed right there.   And so... bring this home, no one believes that the Hadley Cell is bloated and hot.   ( see how I did that ...? )

Anyway, the polar regions ...although empirically warming at a faster rate - like dem total full-of-crap dumbass scientists report - are still mightily cold by comparison to the lower latitudes ( Hadley). The gradient between, in the interim ( ...prolly the next 10 to 50 years depending upon which climate modeled apocalypse one ascribes to...) is larger than it [ probably ] has been in the preceding ...well, epoch. 

It's probably time to start thinking in terms of having crossed over into a new epoch and in fact, I've heard the phrasing, holocene vs anthropocene bandied about in recent years.  Makes sense to me...  Humanity, for better or worse, is a geological force.  Our power registers above the back ground din of other processes that have come in and out of the greater "Gaia" system - but did/do not comparatively leave/have anywhere close to size and vibrating footprint.  That, imho, put us on the list, even if we are at the lower end of the significance scale.  And, seeing as those totally dumbass scientist warn that long after we've completed our [ clear intent of .. ] phasing ourselves out ... the effects of us having been here will continue to rage onward for 10,000 years, hm -   

So for the next few decades we'll likely have autumns ( and springs for that matter ) where dividing lines are enhancing baroclinicity. Lower tropospheric temperature variances between "cold" and "hot" regions, is greater.  When the sun slips below the Equator ... that gets more noticeable too, because it's ability to modulate the cold regions is obviously attenuated(ing).  Comparing pre-Industrial or now... warm arieas below the 35th ( or so) latitude stay warmer later as seasonal migration inextricably encroaches from the N...  

 

I loved Flowers for Algernon!  Read it about 20 years ago and periodically do a reread.  I was somewhat tongue in cheek though I sense the back half of October is cold.

[Great Snow 1717]

25 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

what a summer. If we only had a hurricane impact, this would easily have been a top 5 all-timer. As I said last month, it seems we'll flip to winter around Oct.10th or so. Maybe the 15th. Then we can drop summer hobbies such as weather and focus on enjoyable winter ones.

Did you relocate to central Canada????

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Summer *CANCEL*

Wish we were there. It's like Kevin wrote that hazard summary. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wish we were there. It's like Kevin wrote that hazard summary. 

Lol. That’s a dream come true. Heavy snow, catostrophic winds, heavy damage to infrastructure and cows and steer being tipped over from combo of strong winds and heavy ,wet snow on backs .Wish we there 

[dryslot]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wish we were there. It's like Kevin wrote that hazard summary. 

That probably has a better chance of verifying there though then his post.............

[weathafella]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol. That’s a dream come true. Heavy snow, catostrophic winds, heavy damage to infrastructure and cows and steer being tipped over from combo of strong winds and heavy ,wet snow on backs .Wish we there 

Not to quibble but I think the snow will be powdery.

[weathafella]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

not sure about the board, but alot of people around here are leaving-even younger folks-taxes/cost of living in CT at a tipping point.

Taxes are a bad reason to leave given the difficulty in relocating.  Then again-MA is pretty tax friendly to retirees especially govt retirees-no state taxes on social security or federal pension.  I would never go to the wasteland known as Florida.   I’m staying in New England.

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hartford County is what he meant. Not Wundham

You made that up

show pretty good spatial consistency in
showing an area of mist under the radiation inversion across
Tolland/Windsor Counties in CT eastward across northern/central
RI and towards SE MA after 06z, in an area of light to calm

[STILL N OF PIKE]

??

[ORH_wxman]

Moved the CT state discussion to the banter thread

[dendrite]

60.4F OVC

Cool afternoon

[weatherwiz]

This is insane. I wonder if some parts of NNE end as some flakes or mix with grauple with this FROPA

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Summer *CANCEL*

Thanks for the update dryslot; it seems right in line with all the recent talk in here about how September is the new August.  Most of our friends from back in Montana have been saying how all those record-breaking powder blizzards impacting the lower valleys that used to take place in August are now taking place in September.  So I guess it checks out.

[West Point, NY]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

That said ... the way Global Warming effects all this seasonal change stuff is interesting - and I have other Mets that agree with me ... even though saying  that no longer caries the gravitas it used to ... Wild digression in-coming: this post Industrial Revolution has given so much proxy and power ( actually, more succinctly ...the ability to evade the consequence of bad decision making) to the individual, they no longer have to rely upon the million 500 thousand years of evolutionary cooperative instincts to survive. Thus, affording them the ability to flout advice. People deny this shit because they can. So, when it feels better to watch porn, eat Twinkies, soak in psychotropic drugs either literally or via emanation, they "get to" impugn the very sources that were always charged with the responsibility to veracity in lieu immorality. 

  

 

Factual or not, the scientific community on board with human induced Climate Change should not have engaged in incidents of historical data altering/smoothing... conveniently removing long standing record high temp occurrences using reasoning that it's too anomalous to be correct (and skews our numbers) so it must be faulty. Then there's damaging e-mails out of U of E. Anglia actually discussing distorting data to solidify the findings they wanted to present to the UN. To me, that's not the damning part. It's the silence and sweep any misdoings under the rug like it didn't happen or as Hillary would say after 15 yrs of denials about her husband's infidelity... "So what. What difference does it make"? For many people who are on the fence of this being a reality or Socialism's last gasp to destroy Capitalism and the wealthy Western way of life, it makes a huge difference of who to believe. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

Factual or not, the scientific community on board with human induced Climate Change should not have engaged in incidents of historical data altering/smoothing... conveniently removing long standing record high temp occurrences using reasoning that it's too anomalous to be correct (and skews our numbers) so it must be faulty. Then there's damaging e-mails out of U of E. Anglia actually discussing distorting data to solidify the findings they wanted to present to the UN. To me, that's not the damning part. It's the silence and sweep any misdoings under the rug like it didn't happen or as Hillary would say after 15 yrs of denials about her husband's infidelity... "So what. What difference does it make"? For many people who are on the fence of this being a reality or Socialism's last gasp to destroy Capitalism and the wealthy Western way of life, it makes a huge difference of who to believe. 

Never ever trust anything that has become political . Ever . Never . 

Never trust anything that can’t be questioned without name calling In response. Big red flag. Doesn’t mean we throw the baby out w the bath water but it’s a big pause 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, West Mtn NY said:

Factual or not, the scientific community on board with human induced Climate Change should not have engaged in incidents of historical data altering/smoothing... conveniently removing long standing record high temp occurrences using reasoning that it's too anomalous to be correct (and skews our numbers) so it must be faulty. Then there's damaging e-mails out of U of E. Anglia actually discussing distorting data to solidify the findings they wanted to present to the UN. To me, that's not the damning part. It's the silence and sweep any misdoings under the rug like it didn't happen or as Hillary would say after 15 yrs of denials about her husband's infidelity... "So what. What difference does it make"? For many people who are on the fence of this being a reality or Socialism's last gasp to destroy Capitalism and the wealthy Western way of life, it makes a huge difference of who to believe. 

Not sure if your bold is an accusation and belief of what's happened(ing), or a statement of how someone else is perceiving matters ... For me, I don't agree that scientists have been conditionally "fixing" numbers to fit preconceptions and/or agenda in the majority practice.  Isolated malfeasance ... probably. That's concomitant with the species frankly and cannot be avoided. But, if one questionable apple slates the entire orchard for chopping and clearing, then in reality no one wanted the orchard in the first place. 

And I also find that whole climategate saga as really fodder for knee-jerk reactionary denialists that happened to come across turns of phrase that yeah... of course they are going to seem like a-b-c when/where taken out of context ...then of course repackaged for the nearest high-fiver.  Look the ice caps are melting the atmosphere is heating up.  It's over.  ( not you per se, but to any one hiding in our midst that's frankly a f'ing complete nimrod and/or sociopath at this point).  

But ... we're probably on the verge of getting Will to a blow a gasket so we should probably not diverge this thread's purpose for being any more than we already have - haha.  And I don't wanna get into politics talking points anywhere close to the anonymity and "hiding" of stellar virtuous social-media depots, either.  Holy hell would I rather give head to an ice-pick!.   Because one could be entirely righteous but from Lords Of The Flies to heretic ... history would paint them irrecoverably into an entirely wongeous corner purely by virtue of the douchery doctrines and iniquities of human truth and parlance - 

there is no god.   only missed snow storms  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

This is more observation and question of this upcoming “torch “

gfs 2m temps were pretty dang good all summer with heat waves and cool nites 

going forward I don’t see a > 80F temp at the 18z hour for anyday north of route 2. I’m in Nashua . To me that means 80-82 is certainly possible but 88 seems like it ain’t happening James 

Also has a nice 41 Monday morning ...Balmy

[West Point, NY]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure if your bold is an accusation and belief of what's happened(ing), or a statement of how someone else is perceiving matters ... For me, I don't agree that scientists have been conditionally "fixing" numbers to fit preconceptions and/or agenda in the majority practice.  Isolated malfeasance ... probably. That's concomitant with the species frankly and cannot be avoided. But, if one apple slates the orchard for chopping and clearing, then in reality no one wanted the orchard in the first place - it's not the apple's fault.  And I also find that whole climategate saga as really fodder for knee-jerk reactionary denialists that happened to come across turns of phrase that yeah... of course they are going to seem like a-b-c when/where taken out of context ...then of course repackaged for the nearest high-fiver.  Look the ice caps are melting the atmosphere is heating up.  It's over.  ( not you per se, but to any one hiding in our midst that's frankly a f'ing complete nimrod and/or sociopath at this point).  

But ... we're probably on the verge of getting Will to a blow a gasket so we should probably not diverge this thread's purpose for being any more than we already have - haha.  And I don't wanna get into politics talking points anywhere close to the anonymity and "hiding" of stellar virtuous social-media depots, either.  Holy hell would I rather give head to an ice-pick!.   Because one could be entirely righteous but from Lords Of The Flies to heretic ... history would paint them irrecoverably into an entirely wongeous corner purely by virtue of the douchery doctrines and iniquities of human truth and parlance - 

there is no god.   only missed snow storms  

Last remark.... If the Science is so absolute and settled, why the concerted effort to silence the "climate deniers" including an international list of accredited scientists? If I make a definitive statement to the world that the sun rises in the East, I can give a rats ass what any "astronomy denier" might say or do. I have absolute fact on my side and can back it up 100%. Here's an idea. Put some hard predictions out there World temps going to rise how much in next 2..3..5 yrs. Sea level rises, ice cap melt. Is the world ending in less than 12 years as Alexandrea Greta Occasionally Coherent predicts? Throw it out there and if your wrong, admit it and take your damn apocalypse crystal ball and go home. If correct, then as the short term predictions materialize, point them out and society will fall in line on your side. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is more observation and question of this upcoming “torch “

gfs 2m temps were pretty dang good all summer with heat waves and cool nites 

going forward I don’t see a > 80F temp at the 18z hour for anyday north of route 2. I’m in Nashua . To me that means 80-82 is certainly possible but 88 seems like it ain’t happening James 

Also has a nice 43 Monday morning ...Balmy

GFS was too low this past Sun/Mon

[dendrite]

Euro def drops that cold front south sooner next week. Looks like during the day on Wednesday...late day SNE.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro def drops that cold front south sooner next week. Looks like during the day on Wednesday...late day SNE.

Hoping the timing will give us a severe threat!!!

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, West Mtn NY said:

Last remark.... If the Science is so absolute and settled, why the concerted effort to silence the "climate deniers" including an international list of accredited scientists? If I make a definitive statement to the world that the sun rises in the East, I can give a rats ass what any "astronomy denier" might say or do. I have absolute fact on my side and can back it up 100%. Here's an idea. Put some hard predictions out there World temps going to rise how much in next 2..3..5 yrs. Sea level rises, ice cap melt. Is the world ending in less than 12 years as Alexandrea Greta Occasionally Coheren predicts? Throw it out there and if your wrong, admit it and take your damn apocalypse crystal ball and go home. If correct, then as the short term predictions materialize, point them out and society will fall in line on your side. 

Science is absolute and settled? 

I've never heard any "...International list of accredited scientists" make claims there's nothing left to science. 

Unfortunately though...  Society won't fall into shit man.  Nah ... human beings do not respond to threats they cannot directly perceive through one of the corporeal senses - global warming doesn't rumble the Earth and blare horns around the bend like that.  Folks deny because they can ... and modern convenience still protects them.  And the interesting thing is.. most denier don't even realize while they are flouting fact that they are being protected by conveniences they've long come to expect while they are doing it. 

You know, this may no be as ubiquitously known as it should be... The Earth is currently going through a mass-extinction. The other mass, "media," as well as the consumers of their product are just obsessed and utterly preoccupied with the thermometer .. tho more recently, ice caps and sea level rise are gaining some bandwidth. 

But, many species have gone extinct and the losses are accelerating?   Paleo geologic records match the other epoch boundaries in the history of the planet to what is happening now... So shit ... if we wanna talk apocalypse, mass extinction events are a form of apocalyps...  So technically, you've already lost the debate ( royal 'you') before pulling a chair up to that debate. 

I think part of the problem with this climate cataclysm shit is quite frankly Hollywood.  It's not coming as a gray abyssal wall tipping over the horizon, or a Lucifer's Hammer comet/asteroid impact... or an X99 class solar radiation induced fire storm that subsumes the top mile of the planetary lithosphere into a magma sea ...  It'll more likely come by way of crop failures and pathogen releases, and species migration habitat destablization, oxygen fixing biota break downs in the oceans ... to mention, over-population suffering from failed provision caused by the former cocktail inducing duress and probably wars... There will be adjustments along the way... but a lot of failures that aggregate in time to a forced capitulation which is philosophically losing anyway ... All the while, a select few held out their wealth in enclaves that we don't know about...  all that fun stuff.    muah hahaha. Just kidding enclaves but who knows -

[Typhoon Tip]

Mm... I think the ship's already sailed on the extended demonstrative warm anomaly idea.  

We're getting boobs from the north bursting around the east ends of warm boundaries like a burlesque brazier as it is... And the -EPO that's dumping cold into western Canada in the nearer term, those typically lead r-wave lengthening and that'll pretty squish the ridge/ablate what's left of it ... It'll be hot in Chattanooga I guess

Not saying it won't come back later in October, but this is an outlook in flux and the correction appears pointed down for the time being. 

[Ginx snewx]

What day is Karen hitting @Damage In Tolland, asking for a friend. Will it hit the state capital in Tolland county Ct.

[Torch Tiger]

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, West Mtn NY said:

Last remark.... If the Science is so absolute and settled, why the concerted effort to silence the "climate deniers" including an international list of accredited scientists? If I make a definitive statement to the world that the sun rises in the East, I can give a rats ass what any "astronomy denier" might say or do. I have absolute fact on my side and can back it up 100%. Here's an idea. Put some hard predictions out there World temps going to rise how much in next 2..3..5 yrs. Sea level rises, ice cap melt. Is the world ending in less than 12 years as Alexandrea Greta Occasionally Coherent predicts? 

When did protecting the environment become so political?  This is basic kindergarten level stuff.  Help preserve what we have so further generations can enjoy it as well.  Even if the world doesn’t end in 10 years, what’s the harm in doing a bit more to preserve or protect it?   

I feel like you walk into a Pre-School and there’s a list of like 4 things on the wall they want you to learn or do:  Share with others, be nice to your neighbors, help people who are less fortunate than you, do your part to protect the natural world.

This isn’t radical stuff.  If a child can grasp how to share, take care of others, not be selfish, etc, the adults should be able to too.