September Weather Discussion 2019

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It has? Looks like a torch to me. It's like 18-19C 850s.

Hmm . Saw 80 in my PC, on the news and on the models.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Saturday is mid to upper 80s. Next week inferno verbatim.  Now maybe a front sags south, but that is a torch my friends. 

90 + Sat and much of next week. Signals been there for a few days now . Hottest October week on record for us next week

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hmm . Saw 80 in my PC, on the news and on the models.

I'd lean warmer...especially down there. Looks 85-90F to me at the hot spots. Then we try to nose a high in so maybe we mild down for a couple of days before we retorch it again. Records to start October are like mid/upper 80s at lower el sites so maybe we break a couple. 10/3 looks really vulnerable. That's getting a little far out there, but it's a warm look for sure. At least it's tolerable this time of year.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'd lean warmer...especially down there. Looks 85-90F to me at the hot spots. Then we try to nose a high in so maybe we mild down for a couple of days before we retorch it again. Records to start October are like mid/upper 80s at lower el sites so maybe we break a couple. 10/3 looks really vulnerable. That's getting a little far out there, but it's a warm look for sure. At least it's tolerable this time of year.

Looks like the 850 spurt comes after dark. I can see now why predicted surface temps are in the lower range. Guess its all about timing. 

[dendrite]

93hr has 19C over BDL and 17-18C elsewhere. Lop 13-15C on top of that with sun and it's well into the 80s.

[dendrite]

Also...there's probably some MOS munching going on. MOS was crushed in the most recent torch. I think it was mostly upper 70s to low 80s until about 24hr before when it started to ramp up. I don't think it ever had 90+ though. Climo is getting factored in at this time range and it's going to keep trying to tame these anomalous torches just like it does in early spring if we melt the snow early and get a warm pattern.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

93hr has 19C over BDL and 17-18C elsewhere. Lop 13-15C on top of that with sun and it's well into the 80s.

Well it had that Thursday a couple of days ago too. I am guessing I get in the 80 83 range Saturday, beautiful 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Also...there's probably some MOS munching going on. MOS was crushed in the most recent torch. I think it was mostly upper 70s to low 80s until about 24hr before when it started to ramp up. I don't think it ever had 90+ though. Climo is getting factored in at this time range and it's going to keep trying to tame these anomalous torches just like it does in early spring if we melt the snow early and get a warm pattern.

What about tomorrow.  How has that evolved.  Day 8 temp predictions are always fraught with changes .

[alex]

What's with this crappy cold rain? I thought it was going to be nice to day! Have to drive to Montreal to pick up my mom from the airport 

[Damage In Tolland]

Tomorrow’s always been 80-85 in CT and 90 ish Saturday. It’s had that look for a few days now. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Tomorrow’s always been 80-85 in CT and 90 ish Saturday. It’s had that look for a few days now. 

Valley girls and NE Mass for the win, Tolland might itch 80. Brand new 6z Euro 3 hr surface temps 

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How can a govt agency that is paid to know every little geographic idiosyncrasy and Climo for their forecast agency not know the name of the county that contains the capital city of the state ? We get they pay little attn to CT , but come on.

Hartford is in Tolland/Windham county.  How can a practically life long resident not know this.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Valley girls and NE Mass for the win, Tolland might itch 80. Brand new 6z Euro 3 hr surface temps 

It’s more than rip and read. That’s why you were so surprised at the 92 on Monday .Look at wind, direction and compression, how dry ground is, how much sun. Formulate your own idea. You’ll see tomorrow and Saturday and next week will be warmer than modeled. 

[snowman21]

13 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

What's happened to this forum? I remember it having a cold, snow bias pretty much all the time. I guess I'm still one of the hardcore old school cold and snow lovers on here. I'd slam the button for a -12 anomaly every month of the year without hesitation and for >200" snow each winter.
 

The main participants are getting older and will eventually retire to Florida for the CoC weather so they can enjoy sunshine and 70s/80s beach weather year round. I'm with you though and have no use for temperatures above 50, and would take 12 Januarys a year if it were possible.

[CoastalWx]

Agree with DIT.    

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s more than rip and read. That’s why you were so surprised at the 92 on Monday .Look at wind, direction and compression, how dry ground is, how much sun. Formulate your own idea. You’ll see tomorrow and Saturday and next week will be warmer than modeled. 

I was never surprised about Monday. I was stunned however by you thinking Hartford was in Tolland county 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Agree with DIT.    

Saturday 850

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

The main participants are getting older and will eventually retire to Florida for the CoC weather so they can enjoy sunshine and 70s/80s beach weather year round. I'm with you though and have no use for temperatures above 50, and would take 12 Januarys a year if it were possible.

Who is retiring to Florida? Good god no one we know

[CoastalWx]

I just think Saturday is lots of mid to upper 80s. Not sure 90 given possible clouds or mixing, but if straight sun  and BDL BOS could do it.  Tomorrow probably lots of 80-86. 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

But Kevs said capitol city . Hartford is in neither

Hartford, VT is in Windsor Co.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hartford County is what he meant. Not Wundham

[Damage In Tolland]

Don’t worry, Margusity’s on it. He’s got us.

https://twitter.com/henrymargusity/status/1176813428679303173?s=21

[dryslot]

The real HM........, Enjoy the heat down south!

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The real HM........, Enjoy the heat down south!

Trolled by cranky. Onto Margusity. Mets in seasons.

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Trolled by cranky. Onto Margusity. Mets in seasons.

Up next, JB stay tuned!

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I'd lean warmer...especially down there. Looks 85-90F to me at the hot spots. Then we try to nose a high in so maybe we mild down for a couple of days before we retorch it again. Records to start October are like mid/upper 80s at lower el sites so maybe we break a couple. 10/3 looks really vulnerable. That's getting a little far out there, but it's a warm look for sure. At least it's tolerable this time of year.

We might be north of the front on 10/3....OP had us south of it, but the ensembles have a lot of members with the front south. I agree that Saturday is a day where we toss the MOS numbers as far as we toss a DIT snowfall forecast in winter.

 

 

[weatherwiz]

If things align properly Tuesday could be an active severe day from OH into WV, PA, MD, and maybe into NJ. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

The pattern change begins October 5th and is locked in by Halloween 

Interesting, so you think it'll take that long - 

My guess, no. It could take that long.   Like anything in this weather game, timing change is the last frontier of technological advancement because as is ... we're really not that good at it.  How often does the ambit of tech and its constituent entangled web of interconnected methods all tell us that it'll definitely get hot(cold) in two weeks, only to have it get hot(cold) in a month?  Meanwhile, forecast' or not, I've seen whole scale changes sweep through continents in a single day.   Just as well ... I've seen step down alterations, where the canvas seemed to carry paint of both regimes, simultaneously, for a long while before committing.   

However, I don't think the latter is favored this year?  Probably not favored in any year since 2000 for that matter, and most likely not so in the future.

Here's why:    Global Warming ... quite plausibly  ( so admittedly supposition ) another in a myriad of emergent properties no one knew would happen because of GW jolting, too.

How's that for necessarily terse ... One could write Flowers For Algernon quality prose to describe this shit, and in today's society it seems mice would ironically demonstrate the better comprehension.   

Short version, when pattern changes occur for colder or hotter, the difference before and after tend to be greater than they used to be.

"Used to be" - that always meant Millennial time spans... But in this context? Single normal human live's are afflicted.  And changes are empirically observable in the environment emerging at a faster rate than model(s) projected GW impacts would register. It's not just the anecdotal conjecture of the rocking chair crank extolling the glory days of when "uphill both ways" of yore, either.

So, that specific behavior, the difference between warm and cool patterns, may not be a metric that's evaluated in climate models anyway.  They're not really designed for that discrete level probability.  But we're seeing that right now, today, in the models ( for example). 570 to nearly 580 dm thickness's pervade warm sectors, while snow falls in clumps 500 km away, and not merely caused by local topographic forcing, rather ... at synoptic scales.   Systems are rich in gradients these days. And this is true at pattern boundaries, as well; which is intuitively pleasing because ding ding ding, events happen ( or tend to ) at those seams. 

That said ... the way Global Warming effects all this seasonal change stuff is interesting - and I have other Mets that agree with me ... even though saying  that no longer caries the gravitas it used to ... Wild digression in-coming: this post Industrial Revolution has given so much proxy and power ( actually, more succinctly ...the ability to evade the consequence of bad decision making) to the individual, they no longer have to rely upon the million 500 thousand years of evolutionary cooperative instincts to survive. Thus, affording them the ability to flout advice. People deny this shit because they can. So, when it feels better to watch porn, eat Twinkies, soak in psychotropic drugs either literally or via emanation, they "get to" impugn the very sources that were always charged with the responsibility to veracity in lieu immorality. 

Distrust paranoia, and now this "fake truth" phenomenon has  emerged along the way, and are coming to a pernicious parallax in history - and is causing a fracturing of the very institutions and "faith" in the system the Industry helped create ...  Man, that's a special kind of f'ed right there.   And so... bring this home, no one believes that the Hadley Cell is bloated and hot.   ( see how I did that ...? )

Anyway, the polar regions ...although empirically warming at a faster rate - like dem total full-of-crap dumbass scientists report - are still mightily cold by comparison to the lower latitudes ( Hadley). The gradient between, in the interim ( ...prolly the next 10 to 50 years depending upon which climate modeled apocalypse one ascribes to...) is larger than it [ probably ] has been in the preceding ...well, epoch. 

It's probably time to start thinking in terms of having crossed over into a new epoch and in fact, I've heard the phrasing, holocene vs anthropocene bandied about in recent years.  Makes sense to me...  Humanity, for better or worse, is a geological force.  Our power registers above the back ground din of other processes that have come in and out of the greater "Gaia" system - but did/do not comparatively leave/have anywhere close to size and vibrating footprint.  That, imho, put us on the list, even if we are at the lower end of the significance scale.  And, seeing as those totally dumbass scientist warn that long after we've completed our [ clear intent of .. ] phasing ourselves out ... the effects of us having been here will continue to rage onward for 10,000 years, hm -   

So for the next few decades we'll likely have autumns ( and springs for that matter ) where dividing lines are enhancing baroclinicity. Lower tropospheric temperature variances between "cold" and "hot" regions, is greater.  When the sun slips below the Equator ... that gets more noticeable too, because it's ability to modulate the cold regions is obviously attenuated(ing).  Comparing pre-Industrial or now... warm arieas below the 35th ( or so) latitude stay warmer later as seasonal migration inextricably encroaches from the N...  

As an after thought ... I guess the sting of short duration temperature change, as annoying as it may sensibly be... may not necessarily constitute a deep tissue pattern variance, either.  But, we have tele support that it will change, and be sensibly noticeable, both -

[weatherwiz]

Anyways should be fun at GTF Saturday morning with blizzard conditions. Just imagine a bit farther west and even higher up!!

[dryslot]

Summer *CANCEL*