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September Weather Discussion 2019


dryslot
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Showers were in the forecast but I didn't see any indication of how heavy they might be.  Doppler estimated precip from about my place to points east (about 50 miles) show 2" to 4"+.  I usually find somewhat less in the gauge than the estimate, but there are flash flood watches/warnings up for that area.  It's also the region that got the most rain last night.  Finishing up here in Augusta, probably 1/4-1/2".

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I mean the Davis rain rate is a bit of a weenie calculation anyway. I'm not sure what their sampling period is in relation to update intervals, but if I get a crazy downpour for like 45 seconds and get 3-4 tips during that period it'll start giving the extreme high rates briefly. It's just for shits and giggles that I post it.

It wasn't even that much rain overall. Just 2-3 minutes of the sky gushing. Do the math here -- 0.03" * 60 only gets you 1.80". So that first 0.06" probably came in under a minute and then it tailed off. I probably got 2 or 3 of those tips in a 15s span or something.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I mean the Davis rain rate is a bit of a weenie calculation anyway. I'm not sure what their sampling period is in relation to update intervals, but if I get a crazy downpour for like 45 seconds and get 3-4 tips during that period it'll start giving the extreme high rates briefly. It's just for shits and giggles that I post it.

It wasn't even that much rain overall. Just 2-3 minutes of the sky gushing. Do the math here -- 0.03" * 60 only gets you 1.80". So that first 0.06" probably came in under a minute and then it tailed off. I probably got 2 or 3 of those tips in a 15s span or something.

image.png

:lol:. I think everyone is referring to your 7.20"/year rate mistake instead of what you probably meant with 7.20"/hr rate. Appreciate the effort though to prove your point lol.

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Speaking of heavy rain, the GFS continues to show that FROPA at the end of next week, the latest 12z was just the strongest yet. Timing of it as of now shows it coming through just in time for an appropriate temperature intro to Game 1 of the ALDS in the Bronx.  It'll feel like Fall for sure!  Can't wait and I know a lot of others here can't either.

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What's happened to this forum? I remember it having a cold, snow bias pretty much all the time. I guess I'm still one of the hardcore old school cold and snow lovers on here. I'd slam the button for a -12 anomaly every month of the year without hesitation and for >200" snow each winter.
 

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2 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

What's happened to this forum? I remember it having a cold, snow bias pretty much all the time. I guess I'm still one of the hardcore old school cold and snow lovers on here. I'd slam the button for a -12 anomaly every month of the year without hesitation and for >200" snow each winter.
 

Adjusting to a warming world. 

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11 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

What's happened to this forum? I remember it having a cold, snow bias pretty much all the time. I guess I'm still one of the hardcore old school cold and snow lovers on here. I'd slam the button for a -12 anomaly every month of the year without hesitation and for >200" snow each winter.
 

Oh it's in there ... folks are seasoned return users who've mastered the art of bargaining - it's just as annoying  :)

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Guys ...go check out the 18z GFS from 190 hour and cycle thru those charts going onward.  That's about as fantastic a synoptic cinema about a Blue Norther in Oklahoma and Texas as you'll ever see ... 

And by the way, that 200 hour seasonal switch is hugely signaled in this particular run's totality...  I don't know, that -EPO seems to mean business.  There's now an inside slider cold anomaly situated into the Pac NW as near as 90 hours and an upslope snow event way ahead of schedule.  good call there either Will or Scott or whomever that was - not sure who but there's been talk about snow levels coming down out that way. It's buyable at this point -

...I should be clear... by seasonal switch I'm just saying more discerned evac of continental thickness and resetting the dial downward.

 

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34 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

What's happened to this forum? I remember it having a cold, snow bias pretty much all the time. I guess I'm still one of the hardcore old school cold and snow lovers on here. I'd slam the button for a -12 anomaly every month of the year without hesitation and for >200" snow each winter.
 

Good for killing off the smells ....

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53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even today was warm. Upper 70s and dews finally dropped in the aftn.

My wife wants to turn the heat on.  It was chilly up here but Tuesday has always looked like cyclonic flow NNE autumn since late last week.

I refuse to turn the heat on 24 hours after dews were higher than this afternoon's temperatures.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

My wife wants to turn the heat on.  It was chilly up here but Tuesday has always looked like cyclonic flow NNE autumn since late last week.

I refuse to turn the heat on 24 hours after dews were higher than this afternoon's temperatures.

Heat in the morning, AC in the afternoon?

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