weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 100+ knot MLJ streak moving into theta-e air > 340K...that could be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 OHHHH!!! I've been waiting to catch one of these live!!! Funnel cloud report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 ^^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 They're no longer placing the plastic toys in the meal packs Paul. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 No one asked this so consider it a straw-man discussion point. But I see this soo many times... We get some freak anomaly and usually within temporal shouting distance, there is some sort of anomaly that's occurring that's offering up enough ballast in the other direction to at least get back closer to balancing climo We may actually see the apex - relative to climatology - of this overall warmer than normal pattern in about a week. And look what the GFS attempts to do two to three days later. This happens in reality though; and of course since the models should be a facsimile of reality ( it is hoped .. ), we often see this in the models too. Really close to freakishly warm for two days prior to this panel above... and it would almost take sub 540 dm thickness to compensate so why the hell not- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Do you know how hard it is to get an observed Funnel cloud??? This calls for celebration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Do you know how hard it is to get an observed Funnel cloud??? This calls for celebration 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: No one asked this so consider it a straw-man discussion point. But I see this soo many times... We get some freak anomaly and usually within temporal shouting distance, there is some sort of anomaly that's occurring that's offering up enough ballast in the other direction to at least get back closer to balancing climo We may actually see the apex - relative to climatology - of this overall warmer than normal pattern in about a week. And look what the GFS attempts to do two to three days later. This happens in reality though; and of course since the models should be a facsimile of reality ( it is hoped .. ), we often see this in the models too. Really close to freakishly warm for two days prior to this panel above... and it would almost take sub 540 dm thickness to compensate so why the hell not- 2 weeks left in the period according to GEFS EPS. Our extended summer may end quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 2 weeks left in the period according to GEFS EPS. Our extended summer may end quickly. Yeah, Those thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 In any case... that's a really defining range imho. I've been noticing this across the last several day of GFS, and it seems also to be in the Euro now that the time is into it's edge ranges ...where there some sort of hemispheric house-cleansing of 564+ dm thickness along the 40th parallel. We're not exactly rolling warm air masses anywhere close to 570 and backside high pressure/warm sectors are down a lever mark or two after that ~ range. If there was any geriatric life left to this summer as to whether it's back is actually finally broke or not, I'd say that's pretty convincing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: No lie on those monthlies. If you want to give me deformation delight I'll take some, but give me the warmer temps. Not asking for much. At Farmington, those AN departures would set all time warmth records for every month Oct-Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Looks like Karen is defining an eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: No one asked this so consider it a straw-man discussion point. But I see this soo many times... We get some freak anomaly and usually within temporal shouting distance, there is some sort of anomaly that's occurring that's offering up enough ballast in the other direction to at least get back closer to balancing climo This happens in reality though; and of course since the models should be a facsimile of reality ( it is hoped .. ), we often see this in the models too. Really close to freakishly warm for two days prior to this panel above... and it would almost take sub 540 dm thickness to compensate so why the hell not- I agree Tip, so often we see these highly abnormal patterns do some whiplash the other way. Wasn’t October 2011 warm for 3 weeks then bam two snow events? It wouldn’t surprise me if we end all this warmth with something like a 1-2 day shot of cold with snow showers in the hills in like early/mid-October. Before it bounces mild again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 That may not be there only funnel cloud report either!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I agree Tip, so often we see these highly abnormal patterns do some whiplash the other way. Wasn’t October 2011 warm for 3 weeks then bam two snow events? It wouldn’t surprise me if we end all this warmth with something like a 1-2 day shot of cold with snow showers in the hills in like early/mid-October. Before it bounces mild again. Yeah, totally! And that's a fine example of this facet. But it's not always cut-and-dry, either. It's 100 for three days in the first half of some July, ...then, it's 55 for three days in early August ... having long forgotten the former inferno. It's smeared, and often happens in the aggregate, such that making up for climate happens over time. Other times the corrections are right on top of one another. The GFS is sorta been buckin' for the latter over recent runs. We'll see. Climate numbers don't seem to very much year to year - notwithstanding the GW crap for a moment. But in the stable regime, if it's -10 for a week straight in January ... ahh, gotta go with a earth softener warm up in February say 50/50 of times... Part of the problem is that Devil's proclamation in there, "... in a stable regime.." We are not in a stable regime. I don't think -necessarily - that has to mean that the "make up for losses and gains" tendency stops happening. But, that the make ups get more skewed and perhaps mottled by freak events that are happening for the instability itself... Code for, it's complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 All this wild winter behavior off a GFS run??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Lots of showers and brief downpours. 0.10" so far, but surrounded by cells. 62.9° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: His wife approves at 70 years old plus. Jerry is the man. Lunch on the deck, big breezes, think its destructive sunshine from here on out. Tomorrow adds to the top tenr list. SNE approved cept for the knuckleheads who either want HHH or 50s. 6/30/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Lorenzo is a gigantic system when this thing Recurves is he shaking up the pattern ... so to speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: 6/30/20 Congrats! my buddy Little Joe 4/20/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats! my buddy Little Joe 4/20/20 And me probably 04/01/35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Gotta love the day to day changes this time of year. From summer to autumn... upper 50s in town today and low/mid 50s up at the base of the ski area. Todays temps are lower than yesterday’s Dews. #stayinstalled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Quick shower dropped 0.08" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats! my buddy Little Joe 4/20/20 Hopefully I can tolerate until then...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 61.6F Thunderstorm just to my SW. Looks to go over Brian's house shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 34 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Quick shower dropped 0.08" Sweet, drought cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Sweet, drought cancel lol, hardly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Changes coming on the EPS....the ridge in the GOA gets replaced with a trough after D9-10ish....if that happens, that's a lot colder with these wavelengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: I agree Tip, so often we see these highly abnormal patterns do some whiplash the other way. Wasn’t October 2011 warm for 3 weeks then bam two snow events? It wouldn’t surprise me if we end all this warmth with something like a 1-2 day shot of cold with snow showers in the hills in like early/mid-October. Before it bounces mild again. Cooldown for about a week, then the next 7 months were all AN. Novie thru March ranged from +3 to +7. With winter wx to match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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