Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Haven't sniffed 90F in over 30 days. "It ain't happening James" AHATT only BDL and BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Haven't sniffed 90F in over 30 days. "It ain't happening James" You hit yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Thursday? He's right IMO. 80 to 85 seems right at BDL BOS but who lives there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You hit yesterday 83 at TAN the new 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Have to watch this. Ops and Ens meh it out. With a massive block in the East if any organization happens Florida and the gulf are targets. Can't totally rule that out...there are a few members which start making a hook left down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 .47 last night... woke up to a deluge. New grass approves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not today. We await Jerry swells. Karen unfortunately looks like it will be 1500 miles from Ct unlike your predicted SNE hit. One day you will nail one, one day out of the hundreds you called for. Forky level performance Broken Clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: A day here and you act like it's been 90 for days and days nobody said 90 is COC no one. But interesting that as that soared to 90 DPs dropped to the 50s. Then as the front approached the DPs climbed again. Go outside its absolutely gorgeous out here. Drying out with a nice breeze. Dews are dropping like his post count did over the last 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Gorgeous today . 72 in Nashua Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Jerry’s swells should be modest but prolonged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: You know what I'm curious about...if the loading pattern for the AO is defined by 1000mb SLP why are 500 height anomaly/height fields used to characterize the sign/strength of the AO? anyways...looking at the projected SLP anomalies/500mb height anomalies...I'm not entirely sure the structure of the +AO would just equate to big warmth up to our latitudes. I'm assuming this projected index is being driven by the anomalously low SLP anomalies around Greenland and extending into eastern Canada...southward displaced SLP anomalies try extending to our latitudes, but it is a big fight with the southern ridge. You also have a -PNA signal which is going to try and pump up the heights...it's almost like the AO signal is so strong/displaced that it actually prevents warmth from sustaining into October...somewhat of a similar fashion to where extremely -NAO's which are south displaced yields above-average heights poking into NNE You're top question is a loaded one... Empirical Orthogonal Functions ( principle component analysis in statistics ) post using diagonal cross-sectional analsysis are used to create a polynomial expression: Example (X+1)(X+1) ... or, (x+1)2 such that Y = x2 + 2x + 1 Now that y'all have a popcycle headache my work is complete...muah haha. Environmental problem solving does not end up with such easily determinable roots, however.. Solving for X requires other techniques ...usually Quadratic/"completion of the square"... blah blah I mean I'm paraphrasing through this.. .You should look up EOF derivatives and learn about them... It's how all Teleconnectors are daily derived. What's paramount is what CDC vs CPC do in their particular methods differently, though still are both EOF reliant. CDC uses the lower level wind flux anomalies at their grid points. The CPC uses the mid level ( H500 ) geopotential heights at there's. When you ask the question: "You know what I'm curious about...if the loading pattern for the AO is defined by 1000mb SLP why are 500 height anomaly/height fields used to characterize the sign/strength of the AO?" there really isn't much difference. You didn't ask for the difference between CDC and CPC ...but I thought I'd take you through that so you'd understand that the mid level geopotential deviations (CPC) drive the surface wind anomalies - those two are inextricably linked via mass-conservation kinematics. So, saying the loading the pattern of the AO ( typically the 1000 mb wind flux anomalies ) is actually also an inference of the -AO (blocking at high latitudes) causing the lower level fluxes to take place. So yeah ... 500 mb height anomalies at CPC are used/available to the public ( not even sure if the CDC calculates the AO actually ..huh interesting ) but if the AO is negative, cold loading into and below the 60th parallel is increasing. As an aside, it's why the EPO and NAO are important ... because those indices may say something about where a -AO is setting up conveyors. You sort of hit at this a bit in our longer second paragraph and I like that approach. It's not enough to just assume (-)(+) AO will lead to x-y-z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: A day here and you act like it's been 90 for days and days nobody said 90 is COC no one. But interesting that as that soared to 90 DPs dropped to the 50s. Then as the front approached the DPs climbed again. Go outside its absolutely gorgeous out here. Drying out with a nice breeze. It's a near to record-setting inferno and we all are enjoying it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: It's a near to record-setting inferno and me and DIT are enjoying it We know, Stay swamp azz'd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 80 to 85 seems right at BDL BOS but who lives there I think for most. You think 80-85 is unreasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 I suppose if there are clouds or less mixing it's more like 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Liar. If it were cold with a deformation dandy you'd be feverishly pressing that button. It's a big decision between fresh eggs or fresh snow. No lie on those monthlies. If you want to give me deformation delight I'll take some, but give me the warmer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Liar. If it were cold with a deformation dandy you'd be feverishly pressing that button. It's a big decision between fresh eggs or fresh snow. 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: No lie on those monthlies. If you want to give me deformation delight I'll take some, but give me the warmer temps. Although... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Oh c'mon. Like we do not know what you'll press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 67.7F Scattered moderate acorn showers Rain total .04" last evening. Just enough to clean the leaves of dust along our dirt road. Caterpillar's everywhere and a huge year for acorns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: You hit yesterday Nope. 85F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Although... lol, A little bit of DD rubbing off on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh c'mon. Like we do not know what you'll press. I've changed man. I like the novelty of record breaking cold, but I've gotten too much into plants and my birds. But whatever the weather is, it is....not going to spin it like wxhype. I choose the more tolerable weather, but if snowy and cold happens I'll find a way to enjoy that too. I'm a weather lover too. It's just that weather is lower on my priority list whereas it used to be the only thing on my list. Anyway, back to the torch looking pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh c'mon. Like we do not know what you'll press. Lol, yeah he's not fooling anyone. 120 means you almost certainly got something pretty huge....or if you didn't, it means you have an epic pack from a ton of rapid-fire moderately heavy events like '07-'08. Maybe if the button said 80 or 90" instead of 120", we'd believe him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Lol, yeah he's not fooling anyone. 120 means you almost certainly got something pretty huge....or if you didn't, it means you have an epic pack from a ton of rapid-fire moderately heavy events like '07-'08. Maybe if the button said 80 or 90" instead of 120", we'd believe him. 90" is the new climo. I need something slightly above average like 120" to make me waver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: I've changed man. I like the novelty of record breaking cold, but I've gotten too much into plants and my birds. But whatever the weather is, it is....not going to spin it like wxhype. I choose the more tolerable weather, but if snowy and cold happens I'll find a way to enjoy that too. I'm a weather lover too. It's just that weather is lower on my priority list whereas it used to be the only thing on my list. Anyway, back to the torch looking pattern. Welcome to home ownership adulthood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You're top question is a loaded one... Empirical Orthogonal Functions ( principle component analysis in statistics ) post using diagonal cross-sectional analsysis are used to create a polynomial expression: Example (X+1)(X+1) ... or, (x+1)2 such that Y = x2 + 2x + 1 Now that y'all have a popcycle headache my work is complete...muah haha. Environmental problem solving does not end up with such easily determinable roots, however.. Solving for X requires other techniques ...usually Quadratic/"completion of the square"... blah blah I mean I'm paraphrasing through this.. .You should look up EOF derivatives and learn about them... It's how all Teleconnectors are daily derived. What's paramount is what CDC vs CPC do in their particular methods differently, though still are both EOF reliant. CDC uses the lower level wind flux anomalies at their grid points. The CPC uses the mid level ( H500 ) geopotential heights at there's. When you ask the question: "You know what I'm curious about...if the loading pattern for the AO is defined by 1000mb SLP why are 500 height anomaly/height fields used to characterize the sign/strength of the AO?" there really isn't much difference. You didn't ask for the difference between CDC and CPC ...but I thought I'd take you through that so you'd understand that the mid level geopotential deviations (CPC) drive the surface wind anomalies - those two are inextricably linked via mass-conservation kinematics. So, saying the loading the pattern of the AO ( typically the 1000 mb wind flux anomalies ) is actually also an inference of the -AO (blocking at high latitudes) causing the lower level fluxes to take place. So yeah ... 500 mb height anomalies at CPC are used/available to the public ( not even sure if the CDC calculates the AO actually ..huh interesting ) but if the AO is negative, cold loading into and below the 60th parallel is increasing. As an aside, it's why the EPO and NAO are important ... because those indices may say something about where a -AO is setting up conveyors. You sort of hit at this a bit in our longer second paragraph and I like that approach. It's not enough to just assume (-)(+) AO will lead to x-y-z... This made a ton of sense. I totally forgot that the CDC and CPC use slight variations in some of the methodologies. I have done some reading up on EOF's but I wish I was way better at math then I am (I still have zero clue how I made it through all the Calc) so I could completely understand even use them. I've always, always wanted to create bi-weekly values...I know at the end of the day the structure and placement of the anomalies are most critical, however, there is value I think in an indexed value. With this I think having a bi-weekly value can maybe provide some more light then an index averaged over a month. I think it will capture better those transitional periods and using the index as a number-visual you can go back and analyze those periods and perhaps be a boost in the research department. they do offer daily values and you would think just take the daily values and total up 14 days and divide by 14...but that won't work. I've taken monthly daily values, totaled up, and divided by the days in the month and the value does not equal the monthly reading. Anyways I'm not sure if EOF methodology would help in this department or if some sort of standardization needs to be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 They are going to get CRUSHED in MT...this could actually be a pretty long duration event too...though maybe separate systems but wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 58 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Jerry’s swells should be modest but prolonged His wife approves at 70 years old plus. Jerry is the man. Lunch on the deck, big breezes, think its destructive sunshine from here on out. Tomorrow adds to the top tenr list. SNE approved cept for the knuckleheads who either want HHH or 50s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Looks like they tied it to me...67F. Just brutal cold. Lol, when I left this am they were at 70; for FL standards it has been a nice cool few weeks with breezy conditions and low humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 I also see some severe potential here around October 3rd...spot on for the 40th anniversary of 10/3/79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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