STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 3 hours ago, moneypitmike said: Summer's dead. Admittedly yesterday was warm and humid. Seriously though.......do you really expect HHH moving forward? I laugh. He has a daily..perhaps hourly struggle w his views and reality . We pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Low dews and warmth. Like we drew it up The beat goes on and on. At least 2 more 90 degree days for CT Next week has potential for record heat day 7-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The beat goes on and on. At least 2 more 90 degree days for CT Next week has potential for record heat day 7-9 Lol what happened to Karen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 34 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 6z gfs really pushes that from thru after a Saturday torch (85-87) , what a boundary next Thursday, upper 30’s Maine , upper 80’s Boston (gfs 2 m temps) Yeah I'm really impressed by the gradient being set up by the models. I know Scott's also mentioned this, as did I several days ago when the Euro started putting up 24 C 850 mb slope between Montreal and Boston back whence... Here is the synoptic overview for the D9.5 (only used to elucidate the gradient..) This example circumstance is more akin to an early April wave event - yet even more extreme in a sense because we're not likely to find 576 DAM thickness in warm sectors that far N in mid spring. Still, this is unusual for autumn - I think it may just be a consequence of the erstwhile -AO preponderant summer lingering into early Autumn, in that we are setting the continent up for cold loading earlier; meanwhile, we have a bloated Hadley cell latitude height bias all over the world. These two are increasing the ambient gradient potential, quite plausibly these types of layouts we see below are a result of that enhanced polarity around the 50th to 60th latitude band where the twain shall meet. I suspect this could continue just based upon the unrelenting -AO total bias. There are times when that index has alleviated toward neutral SD (standard deviation), even going positive. But over the longer term the modeled positive ventures of the curves out in time seems to get correct down, while the nadirs do just fine to verify either as is, or even lower. That's a 2ndary correction? A non-obvious subtle trend that needs to be taken into consideration for the transition season, overall, as that darn AO has often thrown seasonal outlooks for a loop. Even NCEP has admitted - or begun to do so ...- as of about ten years ago, that regions from the NP-Lakes to NE are prone to non-ENSO related modulation of their temperature biases - code for, 'we can't predict the peregrinations of the AO out in time with any dependency, and when it is negative, it can and often does usurp the ENSO forcing' In fact, this latter facet still doesn't really resonate very well in the outlooks that come from the social-media's sphere of environmental science enthusiasts/pass-time professionals that play around with that sort of thing on-line ( hint hint, like in here ) ... Be that as it may, I suspect we have chances for huge temperature variations across baroclinic cycling, throughout middle latitudes ...and a hurried flow tendency ( also concomitant with enhanced mid-latitude gradient circumstantially in the mean ) helping to roll out cold into warm episodes quickly. Probably through Christmas or so... after which the seasonal nadir starts to show up and we finally decompress the Hadley cell hang-over swollen headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1.77" of rain last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The beat goes on and on. At least 2 more 90 degree days for CT Next week has potential for record heat day 7-9 There is certainly that potential... Saturday and then Next Wednesday and Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 if there were a button for a -3 september you guys would be slamming your fists on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol what happened to Karen Still there friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if there were a button for a -3 september you guys would be slamming your fists on it These are my buttons J +12 F +12 M +10 A +7 M +4 J +1 J -2 A -2 S +2 O +7 N +10 D +12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 There could be a pretty sizable severe event late weekend/beginning of next week across central US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if there were a button for a -3 september you guys would be slamming your fists on it Come back in Dec Jan Feb when your trolls actually work. Until then, no one cares Forky. We love not turning on tstats . You guys lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: There could be a pretty sizable severe event late weekend/beginning of next week across central US Huge temp contrasts with deep LP, warm sector and dry lines. Tornado season gets a boot in the ass and rejuvenates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 While New England burns close to 80, Vero Beach just missed record low by 2 degrees this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Modfan said: While New England burns close to 80, Vero Beach just missed record low by 2 degrees this am. We are pup sitting my friends dogs. They are in Ocala, called yesterday and were saying how low the humidity was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Modfan said: While New England burns close to 80, Vero Beach just missed record low by 2 degrees this am. Looks like they tied it to me...67F. Just brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Looks like they tied it to me...67F. Just brutal cold. They have baked all summer, must have felt great. Honestly I don't know how Diane does it. Stink stank stunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 Have had no rain, No 90's, And looks like no 80's and back to fall weather the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Huge temp contrasts with deep LP, warm sector and dry lines. Tornado season gets a boot in the ass and rejuvenates Outside of that stretch in late May I believe it's been another fairly quiet season overall...although not sure of the exact numbers. I've seen an awesome graphic floating around twitter at times which shows up-to-date confirmed tornado count for each state but I'm not sure where that graphic comes from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 'Course ...no sooner do I post that missive and this ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 'Course ...no sooner do I post that missive and this ... You know what I'm curious about...if the loading pattern for the AO is defined by 1000mb SLP why are 500 height anomaly/height fields used to characterize the sign/strength of the AO? anyways...looking at the projected SLP anomalies/500mb height anomalies...I'm not entirely sure the structure of the +AO would just equate to big warmth up to our latitudes. I'm assuming this projected index is being driven by the anomalously low SLP anomalies around Greenland and extending into eastern Canada...southward displaced SLP anomalies try extending to our latitudes, but it is a big fight with the southern ridge. You also have a -PNA signal which is going to try and pump up the heights...it's almost like the AO signal is so strong/displaced that it actually prevents warmth from sustaining into October...somewhat of a similar fashion to where extremely -NAO's which are south displaced yields above-average heights poking into NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 58 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wishcast Thursday? He's right IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Thursday? He's right IMO. He may be belly surfing today , so we’ll give benefit of doubt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 41 minutes ago, dendrite said: These are my buttons J +12 F +12 M +10 A +7 M +4 J +1 J -2 A -2 S +2 O +7 N +10 D +12 Liar. If it were cold with a deformation dandy you'd be feverishly pressing that button. It's a big decision between fresh eggs or fresh snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Pretty interesting IR past few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 90 in October is the new COC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: 90 in October is the new COC A day here and you act like it's been 90 for days and days nobody said 90 is COC no one. But interesting that as that soared to 90 DPs dropped to the 50s. Then as the front approached the DPs climbed again. Go outside its absolutely gorgeous out here. Drying out with a nice breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He may be belly surfing today , so we’ll give benefit of doubt Not today. We await Jerry swells. Karen unfortunately looks like it will be 1500 miles from Ct unlike your predicted SNE hit. One day you will nail one, one day out of the hundreds you called for. Forky level performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Haven't sniffed 90F in over 30 days. "It ain't happening James" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 3 hours ago, dendrite said: Climo starts to become a killer for 90F up here as we get near October. CON has 2 90+ readings in their October history and one was in the knicker years. Otherwise the highest was a 90F on 10/7/63. Before that the next 90F is 9/28 back in yore and then you get into the 90-91 stuff from 2007 and 2017. Get 18-20C up here and we'll push it regardless of climo, but my hunch is those euro runs are a little too aggressive for the heat up here. Last night's euro looks a lot like how this last stretch played out. NE-SW gradient as the high knifes in and then we step it up each day until a stronger cold fropa comes through. That's getting into lala though. Pretty strong gradients though across the US, but we're getting into that season I guess. Like Scoot said...looking ninaish too. Same at Farmington. Their only October 90 (on the button) was 10/13/1930. Next latest hitting that mark was 2 years ago on 9/24. Their latest 80 was 10/25/1963 (which I remember well in NNJ - beautiful day to be fishing and the action was always fast there in late Oct warmth, but the fire danger was so high that state officials didn't even want people going out on the lakes, probably because some numbskull might toss a butt into the brush while prepping his boat at the launch.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Pretty interesting IR past few hours Have to watch this. Ops and Ens meh it out. With a massive block in the East if any organization happens Florida and the gulf are targets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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