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September Weather Discussion 2019


dryslot
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19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I gotta give credit where due to @Damage In Tolland... I figured ORH would pull up short in the upper 70s this weekend but they are at 81F for their 2nd consecutive day of 80F or more.  I think DIT had two days of 80F or more at ORH, so credit acknowledged.

What a torch today down SE of the mountains from coastal ME/NH into SNE.

It’s full on torch

with that said GEFS mean seem to be lowering heights a bit next weekend early next week instead of the repeat torch . SW of us will bake 

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55 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I gotta give credit where due to @Damage In Tolland... I figured ORH would pull up short in the upper 70s this weekend but they are at 81F for their 2nd consecutive day of 80F or more.  I think DIT had two days of 80F or more at ORH, so credit acknowledged.

What a torch today down SE of the mountains from coastal ME/NH into SNE.

Thanks man .. 90 or higher was also submitted for BDL . It’s not wanted now, but it’s all part of the new climate. Another shot this coming weekend unfortunately.  

3SCDQf2.jpg

 

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We should get a couple of pretty impressive cold shots during the first week of October. Might also get off to an early winter across the northern-tier of the country too...could be some pretty early season snow chances. 

I also wouldn't rule out the shot at a decent svr event...maybe not us but back into PA/NY heading into October. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

We should get a couple of pretty impressive cold shots during the first week of October. Might also get off to an early winter across the northern-tier of the country too...could be some pretty early season snow chances. 

I also wouldn't rule out the shot at a decent svr event...maybe not us but back into PA/NY heading into October. 

Sell all of that . Huge seller 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Look at the thicknesses out west. Lol...now down to 528. Powder blizzard for Montana on Sunday. Nevermind just wet snow. 

What a pattern. Mid summer here and mid winter out west. 

yeah I'm paying attention to that pretty closely. Some locations could get smoked pretty good it looks like. Perhaps another opportunity too just a few days later. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Sell all of that . Huge seller 

IDK...I think October has a shot to come in below-average. There are some pretty strong signals for some pretty impressive ridging developing out west and the northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns seem to favor an opportunity for some big troughing in the east. 

I think October will be weird in that there will be some pretty hectic fluctuations where we get brief spurts of above-average...maybe even solidly above-average but the cold shots will be pretty impressive. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IDK...I think October has a shot to come in below-average. There are some pretty strong signals for some pretty impressive ridging developing out west and the northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns seem to favor an opportunity for some big troughing in the east. 

I think October will be weird in that there will be some pretty hectic fluctuations where we get brief spurts of above-average...maybe even solidly above-average but the cold shots will be pretty impressive. 

With the pig Atlantic ridge, it will be almost impossible to get anything more than a day or 2 of normal before higher heights rebound. That cold air is locked out west for most of Oct. Maybe the tail end of the month we see a more Normal pattern, but for the next 3-4 weeks it’s bone dry, with a lot of heat overall . Not going to see any severe or really even rain with that ridge. Look how tonight’s vanished 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure what the SD is, but the anomalies out west look really low. Maybe even more anomalous than the ridge out east. So there you go....maybe snow in the mtns east of LA before NNE mtns. 

looks about the same? i wish wx websites would label the color contours on these maps

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_9.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With the pig Atlantic ridge, it will be almost impossible to get anything more than a day or 2 of normal before higher heights rebound. That cold air is locked out west for most of Oct. Maybe the tail end of the months we see a more Normal pattern, but for the next 3-4 weeks it’s bone dry, with a lot of heat overall 

the ridge looks to break down moving into October 

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5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

looks about the same? i wish wx websites would label the color contours on these maps

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_9.png

 

 

Yeah what a pain in the ass to count the contours. After counting them manually,  it looks like our west is -2.5 SD on the deepest color and it is +2.0 on the eastern ridge. So they are close but the western anomaly is a little deeper. I wonder what the eastern anomaly would be if we didn't have the NAO suppressing it somewhat. 

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