ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 That ridge bridge would be sweet in winter with the longer wavelengths. Hopefully it stays around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 2 hours ago, weathafella said: That nao would produce in winter with different wavelengths. Lol. I missed this while making my post above. Yes. That's a nice arctic pattern for winter....almost certainly would be good here with the longer wavelengths and much further south Polar jet. -PNA/-NAO with an overall -AO is one of our best patterns for snowfall in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol. I missed this while making my post above. Yes. That's a nice arctic pattern for winter....almost certainly would be good here with the longer wavelengths and much further south Polar jet. -PNA/-NAO with an overall -AO is one of our best patterns for snowfall in winter. Kevin just exhaled.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not many posts from ACATT lately. I wonder why? Yup. Good. Nothing from ineedsnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: Kevin just exhaled.... I mean, I understand the angst of not being able to relish a 47F day in early October....but no need to start worrying about winter. Ironically, those same posters would freak out if a 10/10/79 showed up. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Already 75 in downtown Greenfield at 10 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I mean, I understand the angst of not being able to relish a 47F day in early October....but no need to start worrying about winter. Ironically, those same posters would freak out if a 10/10/79 showed up. Lol. Per usual we'll probably get into late October or November and social media will start becoming a cesspool with winter cancel garbage. I don't get why so many are so quick to react and go on the ledge. As we have seen with some of the more recent winters things can change very quickly and a back loaded winter is not all that hard to fathom. Heading into the fall now though there are several features which at least yield some promise moving into the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Per usual we'll probably get into late October or November and social media will start becoming a cesspool with winter cancel garbage. I don't get why so many are so quick to react and go on the ledge. As we have seen with some of the more recent winters things can change very quickly and a back loaded winter is not all that hard to fathom. Heading into the fall now though there are several features which at least yield some promise moving into the winter. We had some people canceling winter in autumn of 2007 when we were torching. Same deal in 2017. Both saw pretty wintry Decembers. (Esp 2007) Nevermind the back half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We had some people canceling winter in autumn of 2007 when we were torching. Same deal in 2017. Both saw pretty wintry Decembers. (Esp 2007) Nevermind the back half of winter. That 2007-2008 season was pretty wild. If I remember correctly didn't the pattern that season switch in a heartbeat? It wasn't a transition type change...it was a full blown full court press change. Wasn't there an overperfomring clipper too on NYE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Some interesting things in the sub tropics. The EPS has a large area of easterlies developing from the dateline west for the next few weeks. As a result, this will take a more Nina look which we have been harping for awhile. Not sure what it means for this winter, but I wouldn't rule out a Nina feel to the atmosphere if this keeps up into November. The Atlantic and Africa should see increased tendency for convection. My guess is a more active tropics too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Not many posts from ACATT lately. I wonder why? Nothing in the pattern for the next week or two would suggest cold...why would anyone post about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 56 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Per usual we'll probably get into late October or November and social media will start becoming a cesspool with winter cancel garbage. I don't get why so many are so quick to react and go on the ledge. As we have seen with some of the more recent winters things can change very quickly and a back loaded winter is not all that hard to fathom. Heading into the fall now though there are several features which at least yield some promise moving into the winter. You must be new to this whole internet thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 I'm interesting in the next 10 days to 2-weeks for historical precedence and climatology - which we won't be able to compare until after the fact.. But I'd like to see a ranking against other 20th to 10th relays in the past... it's probably a tedious study as climate numbers tend to be bundled by months. Need a date-to-date reanalysis ... I think NCEP does provide a web interfacing for linear numbers look ups. The other aspect/hypothesis I'm toying with is that the preponderant -AO is helping to mask what might be a historic Hadley cell intrusion into mid latitudes. That's important, because we've had some heights that should have put up lots and lots of high 90s this summer but other than some middling heat here and there, it's been an 89er. The way that works is, the AO is suppressing the ambient polar jet S of normal ... not hugely so, but just enough. Plus ( for summer standards ) that means more gradient than normal along the 45th and 50th parallels ..also a subtlety by say an ishypses or two, but that's enough for the following: As ridge/trough couplets then roll along that axis in southern Canada, the confluence intervals are engineering unusually strong surface high pressure regions that are occasionally ( in models ..) wedging in quite far underneath those higher than normal heights. This, between 35 and 50 N... That means easterly llv wind anomalies/factoring. Continental heat plumes are adulterated and/or failing to get dumped into those ridge scaffolds that would/could otherwise support hotter thickness/diurnal temperatures. So what we are getting is modestly above normal out of heights that look like they'd support an inferno. This is also compounding further by the fact that the lower Maritime trough is a near permanent fixture ...and that the models occasionally fill and that faux warms the mid/ext ranges. The Euro's been doing this every other run for like five days re that particular synoptic concern. But, it adds to reasons why we are disproportionately cool relative to heights over all... Last night's 00z run walls off the bigger numbers due to that trough shunt - though the EPS was less. Basically, it's been a historically hot heights summer ( maybe ...conjecture ) in this paradigm, but is not represented in the dailies. Fascinating what lengths Gaia will go to hide GW from one of the chief constituent society's most guilty of causing it - I call this this a "cleaning cycle" on the global oven. Gaia wants to get rid of Humanity, so ... keeps us thinking it's cooler than it is, while using us to turn up the heat - ...how devious. Ha! just kidding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 ORH with back to back +10 departures for Sat and Sun Today should be similar. The overall monthly departure is taking a beating from that Now at -1.0F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Nothing in the pattern for the next week or two would suggest cold...why would anyone post about it? Didn't stop the cold clowns earlier this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Haven’t had time to post but those 3-4am temps in NNE have to be like +30 from normal for that time of day. It was 64F here at midnight and then 74F by 3am when the strong low level jet started mixing out the inversion. Those 3-6am temperatures were like +5 to +10 above the normal MAX temps, much less at the coldest part of the climo day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: Didn't stop the cold clowns earlier this summer These are likely bigger departures from normal than anything we saw all summer. My MET summer came in just a shade below normal for JJA. The hot humping didn't seem warranted for three months straight IMO . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: These are likely bigger departures from normal than anything we saw all summer. My MET summer came in just a shade below normal for JJA. The hot humping didn't seem warranted for three months straight IMO . All a dream tomorrow. You'll be posting about clouds and small droplet showers that remind you of winter orographics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: These are likely bigger departures from normal than anything we saw all summer. My MET summer came in just a shade below normal for JJA. The hot humping didn't seem warranted for three months straight IMO . July had a +12F at ORH, and a +10 Overall that was a pretty warm month. June and July were a tiny bit AN here, and Sept should finish AN looking at forecasts... Nothing like last summer though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: July had a +12F at ORH, and a +10 Overall that was a pretty warm month. Yeah looks like we had 1 day of +12 in July (the only double digit positive of the summer) and yesterday was +12. The difference though is that the July day was our only 90+ at 91/69... a +12 now delivers 82/52. Sensibly and in terms of comfort, there's a big difference between a 91/69 and a 82/52, ha. +12 right now is Chamber Weather in summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Also, this is not a CONUS wide Chinook. The one-eyed pig in AK is not winking at us. The next two weeks should feature lots of early season snows out west and in Canada, Calgary looks to get some snow next weekend. So it's here, but this pattern is more driven by sub-seasonal oscillations. We have a heck of a heat plume off of Mexico aiming for Diane in Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: These are likely bigger departures from normal than anything we saw all summer. My MET summer came in just a shade below normal for JJA. The hot humping didn't seem warranted for three months straight IMO . No surprise that, as summer departures - July/August especially - are the lowest of the year on average. JJA was not quite 1° BN, with the AN July sandwiched between BN June/August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Also, this is not a CONUS wide Chinook. The one-eyed pig in AK is not winking at us. The next two weeks should feature lots of early season snows out west and in Canada, Calgary looks to get some snow next weekend. So it's here, but this pattern is more driven by sub-seasonal oscillations. We have a heck of a heat plume off of Mexico aiming for Diane in Nashville. The snow levels get down to stupidly low levels for this time of year out west this coming weekend if guidance is correct. Like 534 thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The snow levels get down to stupidly low levels for this time of year out west this coming weekend if guidance is correct. Like 534 thicknesses. Not sure what the SD is, but the anomalies out west look really low. Maybe even more anomalous than the ridge out east. So there you go....maybe snow in the mtns east of LA before NNE mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure what the SD is, but the anomalies out west look really low. Maybe even more anomalous than the ridge out east. So there you go....maybe snow in the mtns east of LA before NNE mtns. If we didn’t have the Greenland block would this be like a 7-10 day stretch of 85-90 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Lots of yellow jackets around the lawn. Just flying and landing on the dead crabgrass. Unless they're boring into the granite, I don't see any nests in the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If we didn’t have the Greenland block would this be like a 7-10 day stretch of 85-90 ? It helps get these intrusions of cool air in, but yeah..quite possible this would be a huge torch for an extended period. It does remind me of our SWFE patterns of Dec 07 without the -NAO. It was positive during that time, but we had a massive vortex to our northeast that acted as a bit of a confluence zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 74F... same temperature it was at 3am, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: These are likely bigger departures from normal than anything we saw all summer. My MET summer came in just a shade below normal for JJA. The hot humping didn't seem warranted for three months straight IMO . Glad I don't reside there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 I gotta give credit where due to @Damage In Tolland... I figured ORH would pull up short in the upper 70s this weekend but they are at 81F for their 2nd consecutive day of 80F or more. I think DIT had two days of 80F or more at ORH, so credit acknowledged. What a torch today down SE of the mountains from coastal ME/NH into SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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