OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hmm , did a damn good job with Montana Well a cold bias would tend to do well with a snowstorm. Feel free to read up on the latest (https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/fv3gfs/) But long story short: FV3 gets progressively colder with longer lead times, and the bias is worse near the surface up through about 700 mb, then worse again around 200 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Good time for a reminder that the FV3 continues to have a cold bias, especially with increasing lead time. In other words, the cold bias gets worse as you move towards the end of the run. Unfortunately something we're going to have to mentally QC out for the time being until they can upgrade/fix it (but GEFS moving to FV3 is a priority first). Will be fun watching the weenies hug the GEFS while the EPS torches us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Will be fun watching the weenies hug the GEFS while the EPS torches us. GEFS doesn't move to FV3 core until late 2020 I believe, so for this whole winter the GFS and GEFS won't be running the same physics. Making them even less useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Well a cold bias would tend to do well with a snowstorm. Feel free to read up on the latest (https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/fv3gfs/) But long story short: FV3 gets progressively colder with longer lead times, and the bias is worse near the surface up through about 700 mb, then worse again around 200 mb. No one ever uses the GFS as is , simmer down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 6 hours ago, powderfreak said: Got some rain coming this week it looks like.... Aww how cute, that HP has been sitting right over Nashville since June...amazing staying power, nothing has been able to break down the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Diane triggered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 37° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Was 55 with a stiff NE wind when i left. I was surprised how breezy it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Lol at BOS being at +3.2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Euro has the chance of the first synoptic snow of the season across the NNE mtns, especially the mtns of NW Maine. Low levels may be borderline, but E-NE flow banked against the high terrain may help cool it a tad. Elsewhere, a fascinating temp gradient exists between, say, BOS to DC. Euro has +22C at 850 in the Mid Atlantic. That's just amazing to see. It looks like we'll be in the 40s and 50s with rain Thursday and Friday. Interior likely below 50 one or both days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Lol at BOS being at +3.2F And most other people/mets are throwing up the oh well emoji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Every station around including Blue Hills is between about 0.6F to 1.4F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro has the chance of the first synoptic snow of the season across the NNE mtns, especially the mtns of NW Maine. Low levels may be borderline, but E-NE flow banked against the high terrain may help cool it a tad. Elsewhere, a fascinating temp gradient exists between, say, BOS to DC. Euro has +22C at 850 in the Mid Atlantic. That's just amazing to see. It looks like we'll be in the 40s and 50s with rain Thursday and Friday. Interior likely below 50 one or both days. Oh boy! And there were actually people wishing for this???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 38.5f. first sub 40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 A frosty 31 degrees here. Diane is ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Any signs of retorch ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Any signs of retorch ? ACATT until December 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 36.0F will do it. A few <= 32F readings around the area. 32F for a min at 1P1. Pretty warm down in SNE comparatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 36.0F will do it. A few <= 32F readings around the area. 32F for a min at 1P1. Pretty warm down in SNE comparatively speaking. Nice. I only managed 46* at the Pit, a tick higher than ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 These pushes of CAA with N-NE flow usually don't do it here. Need a crisp polar continental airmass with low dews on NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Nice website refresh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Euro has first flakes at Sugarloaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2019 Author Share Posted September 30, 2019 37.4°F was the low, Looks like Western Maine has a shot at there first snows the end of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Oh my, highest tides of the year are, you guessed it, Oct 29th. Annual Halloween superstorm would be a mess 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 37.7F Plants get to live another few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 + departure for the month now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 52 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Oh my, highest tides of the year are, you guessed it, Oct 29th. Annual Halloween superstorm would be a mess Lets hope for one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Lets hope for one. No need to hope its a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Hit 44 this morning. House is chilly but sun starting to do its work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 On the way to Richmond for the week. What a freaking torch there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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