powderfreak Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Owls? Reindeer wearing sweaters were here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 36 minutes ago, dendrite said: Native American summer Merry Holidays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't "want" 80 in October....I just said I'd take it over 49F highs and scraping frost off my windshield every morning. Luckily we're not getting a lot of 80F in October...maybe 1 day? Ideally, give me a high of 67-68F with lows in the upper 40s...that's nice crisp fall weather and it's easy to be outside in that. I'll take colder weather as soon as it manifests some snow chances. So by Halloween and beyond it's fine to have real cold shots....though for more real snow, T-day is the cutoff. The Halloween-T-day period is usually the "first flakes" novelty and maybe a light accumulating event on car windshields and mulch. I got a garage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 0.41" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Ray wants 35 and frost, but then will say he wants nothing to do with a 1-3" event because he has to brush it off his Datsun. Yea, later in the season once the novelty dies. Not early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 48 minutes ago, dendrite said: Native American summer Late October is the perfect time for non-normal wx. Either warm so you get those 65-70F days or cold so you can have a snow chance/first flakes. Normal at the end of October is garbage. Like 50-52F highs and near freezing lows. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Just noticed the GFS is only mixing up to H9 on Saturday despite sun and decent SW flow. I know we have some WAA coming in over the top, but my hunch is we mix higher than what it's trying to spit out. I'd bump those MOS numbers at least 5F which would push BDL to 85+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Just noticed the GFS is only mixing up to H9 on Saturday despite sun and decent SW flow. I know we have some WAA coming in over the top, but my hunch is we mix higher than what it's trying to spit out. I'd bump those MOS numbers at least 5F which would push BDL to 85+. 90 locked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 .20” drought continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: Just noticed the GFS is only mixing up to H9 on Saturday despite sun and decent SW flow. I know we have some WAA coming in over the top, but my hunch is we mix higher than what it's trying to spit out. I'd bump those MOS numbers at least 5F which would push BDL to 85+. Yeah I start getting concerned sometimes this time of year with mixing. 80.2 here today. Maybe 85 here Saturday I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Late October is the perfect time for non-normal wx. Either warm so you get those 65-70F days or cold so you can have a snow chance/first flakes. Normal at the end of October is garbage. Like 50-52F highs and near freezing lows. No thanks. Last fall was about as ideal as it gets, IMO. September torch and the first half of October was a torch through 10/12... including days of +19, +22, and +17 departures. But then the switch was flipped as 16 of the last 19 days of last October were below normal (to much below normal) with several days of snow in the air (and even accumulations down here in the valley). That continued with record mountain snows in November (deepest Mansfield depth ever recorded in November) and steady snow cover beginning November 12th in the valley. But to your point, going torch until mid-October is great for outdoor recreation, but then rip the band aid off and go straight to snow temps the second half of October. We went from highs around 80F on October 10th, to highs in the 30s on the 18th. One week is all it took to go from summer to snow last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Nice sky after the rain earlier tonight. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 As an aside, I forgot how much of an absolute furnace October 2017 was. MVL was +6.8 that month... only 5 days below normal with the lowest being -5. Every other day was an absolute torch, with 10 days of double digit positive departures, maxing at a day of +23. Those numbers are incredible and it's crazy that I didn't even remember it being that hot. But if it isn't going to snow, those endless 60s and 70s don't look that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2019 Author Share Posted September 27, 2019 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Sooner or later those picnic tables are getting white. Sooner then some say later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2019 Author Share Posted September 27, 2019 0.31" from that line earlier, Front pushing offshore now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 38 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Last fall was about as ideal as it gets, IMO. September torch and the first half of October was a torch through 10/12... including days of +19, +22, and +17 departures. But then the switch was flipped as 16 of the last 19 days of last October were below normal (to much below normal) with several days of snow in the air (and even accumulations down here in the valley). That continued with record mountain snows in November (deepest Mansfield depth ever recorded in November) and steady snow cover beginning November 12th in the valley. But to your point, going torch until mid-October is great for outdoor recreation, but then rip the band aid off and go straight to snow temps the second half of October. We went from highs around 80F on October 10th, to highs in the 30s on the 18th. One week is all it took to go from summer to snow last year. Agreed. Only caveat is I had my best powder days up north early in the season and it set the bar so high. November was insanely good by any New England standards. Everything after that was hit or miss for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Opening day at Ragged last year. I think Dec 1st...best conditions I saw there all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: .20” drought continues. I got alot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I got alot of rain. The quality and precision of your reading seems to have declined a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 5 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Well you're in VT... Again it's all relative to where people live. For so many years the whole back-and-forth argument between folks that live farther south and folks that live further north with regards to "torch" and "warmth" is just ridiculous...and in fact the word "torch" is stupid to begin with. Indeed your points are well taken wiz, as we know up here in the mountains of NNE we’re potentially multiple climate zones away from the valleys of SNE. Even relative to our normals though, one day of reaching 70 F in September seems… unremarkable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Cool temps, gentle showers this evening. Very late summerjsh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 8 hours ago, J.Spin said: Indeed your points are well taken wiz, as we know up here in the mountains of NNE we’re potentially multiple climate zones away from the valleys of SNE. Even relative to our normals though, one day of reaching 70 F in September seems… unremarkable. I miss the mountains of VT A friend of mine and his family have this cabin right outside of Westminster West...I didn't get to go this summer but the view from his cabin is breathtaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Major props goes out to the NWS (well anyone who forecasts) forecasters out west (like CO, WY, MT, ID) when it comes to forecasting snow totals...like HTF do they do it? Especially with regards to the sharp elevation changes and just knowing terrain and its influences. It can't be easy to derive a map like this. It would be awesome to learn how to forecast snowfall across these places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Major props goes out to the NWS (well anyone who forecasts) forecasters out west (like CO, WY, MT, ID) when it comes to forecasting snow totals...like HTF do they do it? Especially with regards to the sharp elevation changes and just knowing terrain and its influences. It can't be easy to derive a map like this. It would be awesome to learn how to forecast snowfall across these places. Mostly automated the same way point and click is. NWS can obviously tweak specific grid points, but a computer does most of the work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Just now, snowman21 said: Mostly automated the same way point and click is. NWS can obviously tweak specific grid points, but a computer does most of the work. I've always been extremely curious about how this works. Perhaps @OceanStWx has gone into great depth about this before, but when it comes to these snow map, if they are all computer generated with human tweaks, how exactly are they derived? Is it a blend of numerous forecast models, an in-house model, one particular model? And what algorithms are used in them...or are they just derived from the model snowfall algorithms (like 10:1 ratio or Kucheria). But then with the human tweaking...across this region that can't be particularly easy, especially if you have little experience/knowledge of the terrain and geographical influences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 It is going to rip at GTF for many hours Saturday night through Sunday. Although there will be some dry air/subsidence screw zones. Some moose will be unhappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Where is the morning torch talk ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 September neggy departure all but eliminated. Down to a palty -0.2F now after being -2.6F only 7-8 days ago. That's how you flip the switch to a TORCH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Torch tomorrow and then again Wednesday. Tuesday mild up. After that it’s October for 7-10 days until return of Torchtober. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 And no matter what the temp is, anytime you have +15 or more for highs...:.that is a torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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