September Weather Discussion 2019

[mreaves]

3 hours ago, alex said:

32 to 74 here. 42 degree delta. 

My corn was ALMOST ready to harvest but it's fried to a crisp. Dammit. Can't grow anything up here. And I started it in a greenhouse so it could go into the ground as soon as the  weather allowed in the spring. 

And now you know why so many New England farmers fled to the Midwest in the 19th century. Between the rocky soil and the climate they said **** this!

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man that pic! Wow. 

They are catching 8 to 12 ft hammerheads in BID sound

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Crazy.  No matter what shark it is it’s terrifying ha.  I saw Ryan on NBC CT shared a similar type photo from the Cape of a surfer with a fin poking up next to him.

When I lifeguarded we saw lots of sharks late August Sept. No great whites though. Yikes

[dendrite]

Nice ranges up here too.

CON 35 to 81

IZG 35 to 81

SFM 33 to 80

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Crazy.  No matter what shark it is it’s terrifying ha.  I saw Ryan on NBC CT shared a similar type photo from the Cape of a surfer with a fin poking up next to him.

I disagree. When I swam with blacktip reef sharks, their fin was no bigger than my foot. At that size fin would leave me feeling that I have a fighting chance to leave an encounter with my foot still attached. 

[moneypitmike]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

A friend who lives in Burlington was visiting the shore and posted these photos from today at Ogunquit Beach... he said he was taking shots of his girlfriend and her father out on the ocean when the shark fin appeared.  (photo credit Matt Testa). 

We're going to need a bigger paddle-board.

[Damage In Tolland]

Disco inferno

[CoastalWx]

11 hours ago, Hoth said:

OT, but have you tried anything from Vitamin Sea Brewing in Weymouth? Heard they're putting out some awesome stuff.

Yes. It’s very good. 

[Cold Miser]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Crazy.  No matter what shark it is it’s terrifying ha.  I saw Ryan on NBC CT shared a similar type photo from the Cape of a surfer with a fin poking up next to him.

I guess it was worth the risk to catch that 6" wave on near flat waters.

[CoastalWx]

 

[dendrite]

 

[CoastalWx]

“You’re my boy blue.....”

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not sure how anyone could find fault I. This weather.  Maybe boring.  But lows in the 40s. Getting to near 80.  Blue skies. Beers flowing.   What’s not to like

[kdxken]

35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not sure how anyone could find fault I. This weather.  Maybe boring.  But lows in the 40s. Getting to near 80.  Blue skies. Beers flowing.   What’s not to like

Absolutely nothing. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Yesterday was amazing. Next few days could be toned down a few ticks. 

[wxeyeNH]

74/62  Noon.    If 12Z GFS Central NH gets only a few tenths of rain with the next front.   I am 1.55" for the month and 1.15" of that fell on the 2nd.  It is getting dry.  As far as foliage goes everything was green a few days ago but colors are now becoming noticeable. 

[powderfreak]

30 degree temp rise by noon today.  

45F to 75F.

[Typhoon Tip]

First day of autumn by the other calendar is of course Sept 21; yet this particular years orbital eccentricity has that actually on the 23rd - interesting.

And that happenstance is concurrent with a summery weekend underway, and so we have added to summer's lease both symbolically and properly.  

 

 

[dendrite]

78/61 SKC

Awesome

[dendrite]

The yellowjackets have been pretty active. They've been enjoying the fallen pears. Say cheese.

[Typhoon Tip]

We're in the 80s south of the NH border... well, low 80s -

This is odd, we have color flashing over even healthier maples and some other species along Rt 2.  But I've also noticed this over the last week ... down toward Worcester and out along 290 that cuts west-east from I-495 through that city, too. So the observation is a bit more pervasive than merely one's neighborhood. 

Yet, it's warm now - I realize it was cool for a couple of weeks, recently.  However, it doesn't seem intuitively right to me that the preceding three solid months of positive departures must concomitantly mean less, and 2 weeks of above frost chill ( save one morning... ) could come along and drive this kind of physical response in the environment.  Chlorophyll break-down, 2-weeks ahead over a one cool spell, after integrating a whole summer of warmth ?  Maybe ..

I've heard others blame this on temperatures, too ...but I'm not sure I buy that. 

I wonder if the science isn't exacting as to what really does the triggering.  There may be a reality where ( as usual ) science will eventually demonstrate the previous certitude was in fact only 70 someodd% knowing, merely conceited...  Anecdotally/obviously, we know that "sick maples" tend to go early - but this is different than that.  Whole groves of densely populated canopies are flat f'n red and yellow some 2-or even 3 weeks ahead.  

What is certain about this stream of conscious vomit ... is the immediate hot-dog mind-set leaping to this somehow being an omen to the winter - but... I don't care to venture there. What I wonder is, couldthe deeply descended solar minimum play a role?  We've observed a nearly plain solar disk during the majority time-span between spring until now. 

I'll tell you ... as an aside, the ozone in the high altitudes rattling around in the on-setting seasonal PV has gotta be wicked and ready for ... whatever it is that sparks off an SSW bomb this time!  I think the QBO might even be aligning statistically?   We could conceivably end up with a teleconnector convergence in the polarward contributors here. Between the -AO/multi-decadal stuff, and the solar nadior --> SSW connection, either have their weigh-ins, and of course are at least partially subjective. If I was a seasonal forecaster with a ton of ENSO reliance, ...given to the neutrality of the latter compared to the NOT-neutrality of the former, I might consider capitulating to alternate causalities out side of tropical forcing in driving environmental anomalies this year ( to put it diplomatically).   Not only that ...but as I've discussed in the past (and still believe), the expansion of the Hadley cell ( which is empirically demonstrated and scientifically reviewed) should be changing the physical ability for the coupled atmosphere/oceanic relationship to force ( as much ); and taht all means the correlations of mid-last Century become dubious.  That's a whole 'nother possible invalidator of all ENSO arguments until that can be proven true or false.  

This has been a -AO summer ... Don S. has statistically pointed out that these tend to reverse during autumn, so there's that to consider... However, I also wonder if that correlation may be relative ... where linearity of the number sets may mask eras where the correlation coefficients breaks down.  It intuitively makes a good deal of sense to ask that question, because... let's think about this for a moment: How often does the multi-decadal AO curve happen to time with a super negative solar minimum? Answer:   Obviously, that concurrency is rare ... So, are we evaluating -AO summers based on the general longer term number sets, or ..are we breaking those down into 'temporal quadrature' and analyzing this as a 2ndary sort of derivative - because it seems to me, this is a candidate for a unique(er) summer-autumn-winter transition.   I would be interested to see if -AO summers --> + AO autumn/early winters during the tandem of all these negative enforcers - and since good luck finding them in history ....  I dunno - I just get the feeling that it's more uncharted waters this go. 

We may end up with Hadley bloating compressed against suppressed jet latitudes/-AO... which would give rise to more in the way of speed surplus in the balance geostrophic wind.  Did anyone stop and wonder/ask why so many land-speed air velocity records have been being set by the commercial airline industry over the last decade's worth of winters?  Relax ...relax.. I'm not suggesting any violation of one's 'snow entitlement' and/or holding back one's personal dystopian drug quota - ha!  We can get fantastic events in fast flows... I just think shearing is higher and storm residence ( how long it persists in one location ) may be down.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We're in the 80s south of the NH border... well, low 80s -

This is odd, we have color flashing over even healthier maples and some other species along Rt 2.  But I've also noticed this over the last week ... down toward Worcester and out along 290 that cuts west-east from I-495 through that city, too. So the observation is a bit more pervasive than merely one's neighborhood. 

Yet, it's warm now - I realize it was cool for a couple of weeks, recently.  However, it doesn't seem intuitively right to me that the preceding three solid months of positive departures must concomitantly mean less, and 2 weeks of above frost chill ( save one morning... ) could come along and drive this kind of physical response in the environment.  Chlorophyll break-down, 2-weeks ahead over a one cool spell, after integrating a whole summer of warmth ?  Maybe ..

I've heard others blame this on temperatures, too ...but I'm not sure I buy that. 

I wonder if the science isn't exacting as to what really does the triggering.  There may be a reality where ( as usual ) science will eventually demonstrate the previous certitude was in fact only 70 someodd% knowing, merely conceited...  Anecdotally/obviously, we know that "sick maples" tend to go early - but this is different than that.  Whole groves of densely populated canopies are flat f'n red and yellow some 2-or even 3 weeks ahead.  

What is certain about this stream of conscious vomit ... is the immediate hot-dog mind-set leaping to this somehow being an omen to the winter - but... I don't care to venture there. What I wonder is, couldthe deeply descended solar minimum play a role?  We've observed a nearly plain solar disk during the majority time-span between spring until now. 

I'll tell you ... as an aside, the ozone in the high altitudes rattling around in the on-setting seasonal PV has gotta be wicked and ready for ... whatever it is that sparks off an SSW bomb this time!  I think the QBO might even be aligning statistically?   We could conceivably end up with a teleconnector convergence in the polarward contributors here. Between the -AO/multi-decadal stuff, and the solar nadior --> SSW connection, either have their weigh-ins, and of course are at least partially subjective. If I was a seasonal forecaster with a ton of ENSO reliance, ...given to the neutrality of the latter compared to the NOT-neutrality of the former, I might consider capitulating to alternate causalities out side of tropical forcing in driving environmental anomalies this year ( to put it diplomatically).   Not only that ...but as I've discussed in the past (and still believe), the expansion of the Hadley cell ( which is empirically demonstrated and scientifically reviewed) should be changing the physical ability for the couple atmosphere/oceanic relationship to force ( as much ); and taht all means the correlations of mid-last Century become dubious.  That's a whole 'nother possible invalidator of all ENSO arguments until that can be proven true or false.  

This has been a -AO summer ... Don S. has statistically pointed out that these tend to reverse during autumn, so there's that to consider... However, I also wonder if that correlation may be relative ... where linearity of the number sets may mask eras where the correlation coefficients breaks down.  It intuitively makes a good deal of sense to ask that question, because... let's think about this for a moment: How often does the multi-decadal AO curve happen to time with a super negative solar minimum? Answer:   Obviously, that concurrency is rare ... So, are we evaluating -AO summers based on the general longer term number sets, or ..are we breaking those down into 'temporal quadrature' and analyzing this as a 2ndary sort of derivative - because it seems to me, this is a candidate for a unique(er) summer-autumn-winter transition.   I would be interested to see if -AO summers --> + AO autumn/early winters during the tandem of all these negative enforcers - and since good luck finding them in history ....  I dunno - I just get the feeling that it's more uncharted waters this go. 

We may end up with Hadley bloating compressed against suppressed jet latitudes/-AO... which would give rise to more in the way of speed surplus in the balance geostrophic wind.  Did anyone stop and wonder/ask why so many land-speed air velocity records have been being set by the commercial airline industry over the last decade's worth of winters?  Relax ...relax.. I'm not suggesting that violating 'snow entitlement' and or holding back one's personal dystopian drug quota - ha!  We can get fantastic events in fast flows... I just think shearing is higher and storm residence ( how long it persists in one location ) may be down.

 

Prob due in some part that people’s perception filters are off if they don’t realize ..There was not a hot 3 months per se.

We had a very hot July , humid but less than last year

june was beautiful, August had lots of low dews and cool nites second half and September below...

route 2 north Summer weather was basically last week of June to mid August ...relatively short. (So far )but mid August low dews thru now have set the stage along with a lack of deluges 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Prob due in some part that people’s perception filters are off of the following seems odd “There was not a hot 3 months “

we had a very hot July , humid but less than last year

june was beautiful, August had lots of low dews and cool nites second half and September below...

route 2 north Summer weather was basically last week of June to mid August ...relatively short. (So far )

Yeah I dunno ... I don't mean to come off as condescending but, I've been around awhile as mid-lifer at this point ...  though I cannot hold a candle to Jerry just yet     kidding Jer'

Anyway, I've seen plenty of summers that were flat cold compared to normal, and they did not precede early color flashing - so, existential... okay, and one person's opinion, not holier than thou by any stretch.  But, I don't think temperature has driven this physical response in the foliage in SNE.  

There may be other environmental causes - actually ...that's obvious.  But I mean, 'what' those are -  ... Just offering an inquisitive vector having to do with sun.   But who knows - maybe there's some thing where every time a hot summer has a single cool snap, will always cause early colors.  f -

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I dunno ... I don't mean to come off as condescending but, I've been around awhile as mid-lifer at this point ...  thought I cannot hold a candle to Jerry just yet     kidding Jer'

Anyway, I've seen plenty of summers that were flat cold compared to normal, and they did not preceded early color flashing - so, existential... okay, and one person's opinion, not holier than thou by any stretch.  But, I don't think temperature has driven this physical response in the foliage in SNE.  

There may be other environmental causes - actually ...that's obvious.  But I mean, 'what' those are -  ... Just offering an inquisitive vector having to do with sun.   But who knows - maybe there's some thing where every time a hot summer has a single cool snap, will always cause early colors.  f -

Getting an intense foliage season (that also comes a bit early) is really related to 3 factors:

- early/mid summer precip

- late summer/early fall sunshine

- late summer early fall temps (esp nightttime temps)

 

If precip is high in early to mid summer that is a good stage-setter as it will allow the leaves to stay healthier into the early autumn and continue to produce sugars...then later in summer and into early fall you want to start really ramping up the sunshine to get that destruction of chlorophyll cranking...then at the same time you want to start cooling the nights to increase the red pigments from the sugars that get trapped in the leaves once chlorophyll production has ceased. You just don't want hard frosts or freezes too early because that destroys the creation of the pigments. 

Getting the cool nights started earlier can help the change start early which is what might have happened in the 2nd half of August. Drought can also cause leaves to change early (via stress) though usually the colors are muted and dull when drought is the cause...we haven't been in drought this summer so that isn't the cause this time and these limited early colors have been pretty bright in my opinion. 

Weve had pretty ideal weather for the production of good color the past month or so. Lots of sunshine and plenty of crisp cool nights. Unfortunately we may be seeing that run come to an end so we'll see how much that affects the foliage going into October. We got a good start so we still might have a decent foliage season even if the weather turns warmer. 

[Typhoon Tip]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Getting an intense foliage season (that also comes a bit early) is really related to 3 factors:

- early/mid summer precip

- late summer/early fall sunshine

- late summer early fall temps (esp nightttime temps)

 

If precip is high in early to mid summer that is a good stage-setter as it will allow the leaves to stay healthier into the early autumn and continue to produce sugars...then later in summer and into early fall you want to start really ramping up the sunshine to get that destruction of chlorophyll cranking...then at the same time you want to start cooling the nights to increase the red pigments from the sugars that get trapped in the leaves once chlorophyll production has ceased. You just don't want hard frosts or freezes too early because that destroys the creation of the pigments. 

Getting the cool nights started earlier can help the change start early which is what might have happened in the 2nd half of August. Drought can also cause leaves to change early (via stress) though usually the colors are muted and dull when drought is the cause...we haven't been in drought this summer so that isn't the cause this time and these limited early colors have been pretty bright in my opinion. 

Weve had pretty ideal weather for the production of good color the past month or so. Lots of sunshine and plenty of crisp cool nights. Unfortunately we may be seeing that run come to an end so we'll see how much that affects the foliage going into October. We got a good start so we still might have a decent foliage season even if the weather turns warmer. 

That's part of my point though that falls out of favor in my mind.  The departures haven't been that extreme....  we're still at or greater than 2 below normal - that's it's not adding up to a causal thing.  Not from my personal experience. 

But, it seems your hitting at a special confluence of events that's preceding this - perhaps.   Not gonna argue.  But I've seen wet sunny summer and cool autumns... The last 20 years, I've never seen color in such wide depthy swaths of foliage in the middle of September. And, I don't really see much evidence in any data that really should demonstratively differentiate this summer from others - though obviously they're never going to be exactly the same.  Put it this way... we are "way" ahead ( I think haha it seems..).  The differences in data from year to year are comparatively minor to the vastness in timing here.  That's what makes it all unsettling to me.

hm. interesting - maybe you're right. Some perfect cocktail of well-timed variables and viola. 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

82F in downtown Greenfield.  We summer. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Torch!

[powderfreak]

45F this morning to a high of 79F so far. 

Some shallow Cu clouds developing over the mountains have cut back on the warming recently after high temp around 2pm.

 

[CoastalWx]

83 here for the high, but 79 now as sea breeze has set in with an ESE wind. 

[dendrite]

76F off of a high of 80F.