LVwhiteout Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 On 10/7/2019 at 10:30 AM, The Iceman said: Coastal low this week should be interesting to track. Incredible spread among the models at such a short range. Ranges anywhere from 1"+ qpf for most of the 95 corridor S and E to rain being confined to the coast. Tough forecast for sure. Hope this isn't a sign of things this winter. Tired of the tight gradient stuff the last couple of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 WAR keeps redeveloping on ens and has been an off and on feature all summer. Really hoping that feature isnt a recurring theme and a repeat of last year. Not saying it will be...just have a bad taste still from last winter so obviously watching for trends. Winter outlook is being worked on....will release by early Nov as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Real nice day thanks to the forecast missing the mark by 100 miles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Real nice day thanks to the forecast missing the mark by 100 miles Dear God if this were January and we were expecting a coastal with a track somewhat similar to what most guidance was showing yet we woke up to cloudless skies like today, I cant even imagine the mass cliff jumping. Btw, DT's epic monster Noreaster pattern for Oct 19th or whatever suddenly doesnt look so epic. We're not going to do this "let me be the first to spot a storm 3 weeks out" again this year I hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 On 10/5/2019 at 3:15 PM, Rtd208 said: A little further down the road. 1st image is euro ens....2nd image gfs ens....3rd image cmc ens. Warmish ridge in the east, any stormy regime out West or confined deep South. Maybe this will change, maybe not. Point isnt to troll DT or LC but LR forecasting is humbling as most of us saw last year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 ⬆️⬆️ this is what I am getting concerned about. Second time recently LR showed an excellent stormy regime in the East only to be replaced by a redeveloping WAR and trof out West. Like groundhog day....hopefully just leftovers from last winter and the trends/tendencies over NA progress into something else over the next several weeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 +NAO SE ridge Lack of Miller A's Any frozen will have to come from a "thread the needle" system Seems as safe a winter outlook as any. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 First of hopefully many coastal storms tomorrow. Looks like 1-2" of rain for most of the area and winds 25-30 MPH with gusts of 40. I really enjoy these fall coastals and I feel like it's a good sign for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 GFS has shown some big time cold coming into the end of the month. First freeze in late october would make for a chilly halloween. PS let's get this look in mid winter plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Not sure I want to see this in Oct. Likely wont happen but snow in the metro in Oct is usually the kiss of death for the winter: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not sure I want to see this in Oct. Likely wont happen but snow in the metro in Oct is usually the kiss of death for the winter: Good news, it's gone on the 6z run lol I don't think we'll see any snow in late october, the depth of the cold 95% won't be strong enough to hold in place. I do like the look at the end of the month and I hope the trend of late of patterns locking in holds up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 But serious could this look lock in from december to february? Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: But serious could this look lock in from december to february? Thx Last year when we had these looks and the WAR was present the LR models kept pumping out unicorns like this with the ridging in the W Atl feeding a neg NAO. But as lead time lessened we saw time and time again that the WAR never fed high later blocking and was either transient or just set up shop and never really linked up. Maybe this season can be different, but as much as many wont admit, this has been recurring for several seasons now and getting a sustained neg NAO has been like trying to get a Wonka Bar golden ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 Wind Advisory now in effect here for gusts up to 50 mph possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 Light rain falling here. Picked up 0.14" of rain so far today. Looks like alot more on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Last year when we had these looks and the WAR was present the LR models kept pumping out unicorns like this with the ridging in the W Atl feeding a neg NAO. But as lead time lessened we saw time and time again that the WAR never fed high later blocking and was either transient or just set up shop and never really linked up. Maybe this season can be different, but as much as many wont admit, this has been recurring for several seasons now and getting a sustained neg NAO has been like trying to get a Wonka Bar golden ticket. Last three winters were all Slugworth *xcpt blizz of 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Started getting the rain here just after noon today and the rates have steadily increased throughout the afternoon. Currently up to 0.90" at post time with varying rates from about 1/3rd to 3/4"/hr, but with the heaviest sustained rain occurring now. This is the highest rainfall total here (so far) since 8/14 believe it or not (when I had 1.03"). High today was 64 after a low of 49 and the current temp is 60 with heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Waiting on that mini nuke reactor from Amazon hope it gets her before the inevitable power outage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Closing in on 2" of rain here, 1.97" to be exact. Been letting up as the back edge approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 Pouring here. Up to 0.82" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Under a gully washer at the moment as a heavy band is coming through. Currently up to 1.61" and rising. Temp is 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1.68” here in Exton. Temp down to 54. Peak gust to 26 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Now up to 1.69" of rain and the back edge with some gusty NNW winds, is starting to move through. Temp is down to 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2019 Author Share Posted October 17, 2019 Pouring here again. Up to 1.37" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2019 Author Share Posted October 17, 2019 Winds starting to pick up here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Seeing all sorts of wind damage reports coming through in Berks, Chesco, Delco, and Montco. Temp is down to 53 here now with light rain and breezes (although the earlier winds, that were like a gust front, have lightened up a bit for the moment). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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