Ralph Wiggum Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Cold continues to rule through the 10 day. Mild second half of November a big fail, might be a top 10 cold November when it's wrapped up just stunning really. Was discussing in another forum how the Euro weeklies and seasonal stuff keeps throwing out a strong +NAO/+AO yet the EPS day 10 is completely disagreeing. After last year, I'm trying to mainly focus on Day 10 and under this year...which looks decent. I keep asking myself can such a decent fall pattern with blocking tendencies really hit a wall and flip on itself to such an extreme as the weeklies and seasonal depict? I suppose the answer is yes. However, last year the weeklies and seasonal were touting the epic unicorn of patterns and it never materialized. Could this be the opposite of last year? Lots of questions and we should see some answers over the next several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Through yesterday halfway through November our average temp is 40.5 - if the month ended today it would be the 22nd coldest November since Chester County PA records began 126 years ago...in looking ahead I see very few above normal temp days over the remainder of the month. Giving us an excellent shot at at top 10 coldest November on record IMHO and of course our 1st below normal month since November 2018. For those interested I am planning on posting my Chester County winter forecast this weekend on both twitter and here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 17, 2019 Author Share Posted November 17, 2019 I actually have some snow flurries falling here. Current temp 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 6:12 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Was discussing in another forum how the Euro weeklies and seasonal stuff keeps throwing out a strong +NAO/+AO yet the EPS day 10 is completely disagreeing. After last year, I'm trying to mainly focus on Day 10 and under this year...which looks decent. I keep asking myself can such a decent fall pattern with blocking tendencies really hit a wall and flip on itself to such an extreme as the weeklies and seasonal depict? I suppose the answer is yes. However, last year the weeklies and seasonal were touting the epic unicorn of patterns and it never materialized. Could this be the opposite of last year? Lots of questions and we should see some answers over the next several weeks. I mean they could be right eventually, but they have really been awful so far. They had November being a torch back in October and it's verified pretty much completely opposite. That said it looks like the ensembles are in flux past day 10 on what to do with the NAO and AO. Some bring both back to negative after a flight bump towards neutral while others have it going positive. Big spread. I think you have right idea of focusing on inside 10 days and right now things are continuing to look well in that range. We've seen the last few years that pattern changes advertised in the day 10-15 range get pushed back again and again. Would be nice for that to occur with a good pattern for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I mean they could be right eventually, but they have really been awful so far. They had November being a torch back in October and it's verified pretty much completely opposite. That said it looks like the ensembles are in flux past day 10 on what to do with the NAO and AO. Some bring both back to negative after a flight bump towards neutral while others have it going positive. Big spread. I think you have right idea of focusing on inside 10 days and right now things are continuing to look well in that range. We've seen the last few years that pattern changes advertised in the day 10-15 range get pushed back again and again. Would be nice for that to occur with a good pattern for once. Typical pattern change/reload/transition look. That is no doubt coming....most ens show this at least starting by day 10. Some bring the current looks back, some flip it.....certainly .mixed signals. Should have some idea about where Dec may head on or around Thanksgiving. I do like some of the recurring themes we have seen most of the fall. Doesnt mean they will hold as a background state this winter though. Lots to be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Rare snowstorm in Tehran and a foot of it, middle east blizzards are not good for us for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, RedSky said: Rare snowstorm in Tehran and a foot of it, middle east blizzards are not good for us for some reason. But I heard November snows in Iran yield a mild rest of the winter there....kiss of death sorta thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 Getting some pretty good rain falling here. Up to 0.17" of rain so far today. Current temp 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 Picked up 0.31" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Ensembles have the -nao weakening in the long range while higher heights move into western North America. With the qbo trending favorable and warm sst’s in the north pac I wonder if that will be the theme this winter with times of the pac and Atlantic teaming up. Seems we also have potential for a ssw down the line. I’m feeling pretty good about this winter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Through yesterday our November average temperature here in Western Chester County is at 40.1 - if the month ended today this would be the 15th coldest November since local records began in 1894 (126 years). Looking ahead most days with the exception of a couple days should average normal to below. Looks increasingly likely we will see our 1st below normal month since last November and a chilly finish and opening to December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Looking cloudy here for the meteor "storm" at 11:50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Seems that since the HH run a few evenings ago when this thread was brimming with confidence irt the LR -EPO/-AO/-NAO trifecta looks things have become more muted in the LR especially in the AO/NAO regions on some guidance as the PAC is taking on the dominant player look and is trying to show signs of running the show as early as day 8. As usual, grain of salt past 240. But we can see the NAO goes negative as early as Sunday but around the same the time or soon after, the EPO ridge is beginning to try and flex which is the new player on the field emerging. With that said, where we were once seeing the NAO establish and bleed into the AO the pulsing EPO appears to dampen out any HP over the pole while the NAO slowly fades. You can also see on the ens how the EPO starts a bit west and in turn pumps a SE and even an argument for a S Central ridge before migrating towards the west coast (hopefully but again that is post 240). Like someone said, it is refreshing to see a 50/50 pop now and then so with an EPO ridge and no NAO it has that transient quick-hitter kind of look thump to you know what sorta flow if that pattern held during early climo. So not a total fail nor a total victory sort of pattern coming up. Just one where caution is still urged and I'm not sure anyone knows where this is going to head in Dec right now. Thanksgiving week as stated is going to be a transitional week....it is either a reload as the pattern relaxes and resets or a complete reshuffle of the deck where we start seeing the PaC play bully and push the Atl around as has been so common in recent years. (Attached are the EpS and GEFS day 10....big diffs at HL. FWIW the GEPS is more like the EPS in keeping the NAO neutral/neg.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Hurricane's winter outlook is out. Low solar activity, near normal to slightly above (30-35") snowfall. He and I are on similar pages which that sort of company I will gladly take!! Hurricane's Winter Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hurricane's winter outlook is out. Low solar activity, near normal to slightly above (30-35") snowfall. He and I are on similar pages which that sort of company I will gladly take!! Hurricane's Winter Outlook Hey Ralphie that is 10-15" over or near 50% above average snow for Philly. He cloned last winter but added more snow. Entertaining video by the cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, RedSky said: Hey Ralphie that is 10-15" over or near 50% above average snow for Philly. He cloned last winter but added more snow. Entertaining video by the cane. Right I forgot I'm thinking KDYL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Negative NAO pops for a period over the next 4 days before losing traction in the medium range in response to a flexing EPO ridge out West. Split flow continues off the West Coast. Strat PV taking a beating and looks to continue to do so. How that translates down to the trop as a SSWE unfolds in the coming weeks tbd but at the very least should allow for the PV to move around as opposed to be anchored in one gyre over the North Pole. Should be seeing a BN temp regime trying to set up during the last few days of November into December as the EPO ridge takes over the flow out West into the Plains and possibly lead to some CPF eventually spilling East. With that said, Thanksgiving week is and has appeared to be a week of transition irt the overall hemispheric pattern. There was uncertainty as where it would head leading into the start of December but we are beginning to see some agreement among guidance. EPO ridging will be the main player heading into the LR with an active pattern/stj evolving. Whether we can get the Atl side to play nice or the PV sets up over Hudson Bay with little HL blocking keeping the flow fast and furious over the Northern tier and Northeast will be something to watch. Seems the pattern evolution wont be horrible. Could see a clipper-type pattern trying to take shape. If we can get any blocking during such a period would yield greater potential for a slow mover. But alas, cloud talk at this point. This GEFS plot does pose some interest and I believe this is a period that deserves some monitoring as the pattern setup has some potential. 50/50 sets up following the holiday as the EPO ridge flexes allowing for a fresh cold air supply. Some ridging (waning) is still seen over the Eastern NAO region but is slowly being pushed out by a piece of the PV dropping into the Baffin Bay region. A piece of UL energy is moving into the Eastern Plains and there are signs that a +PNA may briefly pop in conjunction. So this is a somewhat threatening look. If the PNA is real and can help force the UL energy farther S and under us that could yield a trackable event. Is a period the keep an eye on as the season is finally upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 I'll just leave this here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 I could swear i saw a new banter thread pop up not long ago ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 I AM ALL IN though let's do this GFS, cuz last years worst ever for me wasn't bad enough 3" with 20" 18 miles to the west is the perfect way to get the season rolling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwhiteout Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 White rain and 37 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Dont think I would want to be one of the folks tethered to the balloons at the Macy's T-Giving Parade. Looks breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Moderate snow over here in Lancaster, PA. 34 degrees. Light accumulations on all surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Snowing in North Wales...big wet flakes. Wind has picked up as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Moderate snow grassy areas covered road is slushy, numerous accidents rt183 north of 78, bit of a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Kudos to JB for his call of snow down to the m/d line - moderate snow and 35 in Western Chester County PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Just got a text from my sis in Wyndmoor to alert to the big flakes. Literally 5 minutes later they started here in NW Philly with some pancake flakes. Already up to 0.84" rain today (0.14" yesterday) and a temp of 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Flakes are coming down pretty heavy - still pancake but coating the cars and grassy areas. Temp down to 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 33f in Warminster with moderate snow. Light accumulation on grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 Picked up 0.52" of rain so far today. Current temp 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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