RedSky Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 NYC in jeopardy of breaking the record for it's earliest below 20F reading and 32F max temperature next week. Mind blowing...and numbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Random Monday morning musings: Another cold/chilly early/mid November morning. Historical data posted in other groups strongly correlates cold Novembers with BN temp DJF in our region (more + correlation farther N and W into PA, less S). Many records broken recently for low temps....shattered even. Tendencies for coastal development off the SE Coast recently and on future guidance. Likely a function of AN gulf stream SSTs and the strong baroclinicity between the colder than usual air mass over the land interacting with said SSTs. Pattern also speaks for itself with trof established over the E and SE. SPV continues to be bullied and pushed around with the TPV splitting and not being able to align/sync with 10hPa level. Seeing PV centers near Siberia, another N Hudson Bay region, and lobe over Europe. Ridge poking N thru Chukchi Sea and into Arctic Circle keeping -AO hopes alive going forward. Hints LR of -NAO re-emerging (continual blocky theme). Aleutian Low remains a feature. Split flow evident off West Coast with one jet into NW US/British Columbia Coast and another undercutting thru old Mexico and across into the SE US. This flat SE ridge is not a bad thing moving forward imo as the pattern reloads IF the N Atl and AO cooperate. As the PNA goes - at times this sets up a gradient flow into December with overrunning systems moving across potentially. That ridge should be a lift mechanism to push precip N. If the AO and NAO cooperate and keep the one PV center in a location to advect cold air into the Northeast, it will be a good Dec pattern coming up with SWF (southwest flow) events providing snow chances for the Northeast. Again, just some musings on this Monday. Not seeing anything too alarming. Was seeing some SE ridge pops on LR ens but again it seems to be balanced but the goings-on over the N Pole and N Atl HL blocking. That's of course if the general ideas hold. Bottom line, I'm certainly not disliking the look moving forward. Maybe a relax/reload in 7-12 days but we can see the neg temp anomalies rebuilding across the Eastern US again after a moderation with the warmest temps into Canada. Not a CPF look (yet) BUT like seeing the neg temps reappearing. An old sage once said, when Canada is warm in December, the lower 48 is generally chilly/cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Good stuff! of course last November we had a well (3.1) below normal month followed since by every month being above normal this year. Including the December through March period running 1.5 degrees above normal although near normal snow for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Cosgrove thinks a milder than normal remainder of November after the arctic shot through mid December at least. MJO supports it but -AO is a conflicting signal for the mildness the remainder of the month should prove interesting. Most likely a normal average from mid month the next 30 days with significant short lived cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Crickets still alive for some reason here, last night for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Crickets still alive for some reason here, last night for that. The last handful of nights have been quiet at night, no crickets or anything, but I did hear a couple this evening. After this cold front moves through that should be that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 On 11/10/2019 at 7:27 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Glenn, have you released your winter outlook yet? If not, when should we look for it? Thanks. They call me SNOWSTORM STEVE actually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Light snow here now !!! Temp 35F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Down to 39 in Exton, overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 38F Warminster with flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Down to 34.8 here in NW Chesco but with just heavy virga falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Temp has fallen from 53 at 8 am to now 38F with light rain. Hoping we can see some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Just started to snow lightly in NW Chesco temp down to 34.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Light snow in the Honey Brook area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Snow at Temple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 A little light snow here, 37F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Have some flurries mixing in with the rain. 37.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Flurries in gloco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 16 hours ago, RedSky said: Crickets still alive for some reason here, last night for that. I was over at my sister's house yesterday and got ladybugged to death yesterday as I was wrapping her fig. It had hit a high of 63 in this area yesterday so it was a good day to do it. But that is all a memory as I got flakes flying here with the temp down to 35 after a high earlier this morning of 54. Looks like a heavier band is incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Flurries in TTN! First flakes of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Have gone from flurries to SN. LOL It's trying to stick and is slowly dropping the temp (still 35 but instead of 35.2, it's 34.9). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 First snow flurries of the year! Temp down to 35F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Looks like that is all done and temp is down to 34 and mostly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 Snow flurries here. Current temp 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Hey just a T same as last year, identical winter coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Hey just a T same as last year, identical winter coming I think last year the snow was a couple days later, on 11/15 - 11/16/18 (and I actually got 4.5" of a combo of frozen then). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 Still have an occasional snow flurry falling here, temp down to 33 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I think last year the snow was a couple days later, on 11/15 - 11/16/18 (and I actually got 4.5" of a combo of frozen then). Just a few days off with the snow and near the same level of record cold air mass only difference is the core cold struck the mid west and south harder this time and has a more NE trajectory as it exits. Any mathematicians in the house what are the odds of this in back to back Novembers love to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Incredibly we almost do the record cold again this weekend only that cold slab a tad to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 .9" SN in Richmond talk about an early season snow anomaly wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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