Ralph Wiggum Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 27 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Bottomed out at 30F this morning. Looking ahead there was this in the medium range on this mornings GFS. Not sure we want snow in November though after last year. Pattern these first 2 weeks of November is looking pretty cold, would love to see this in December and January though. But did you see the BOMB on the Euro just a bit too far off the coast around the 13th? Something is going down during that period. Same time frame the GFS was dropping Barney's PV into the region for a few runs. And yes, other guidance like the GFS op has a storm but not nearly as organized/consolidated as the Euro. Certainly worth a look over the next several days....see if it has legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Hit a low of 29.4F this morning (lowest of the season so far). Already back up to 50.2F, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 EPS and GEFS fairly similar irt key features during this period. Ridge bridge over top is nice, PV over the GL with trof along EC, ridging out West (PNA and EPO). Would like to see the WAR start feeding the NAO as we head later into the fall and become a recurring progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Wasn't the universal consensus only a week ago that a milder than normal November was likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 14 minutes ago, RedSky said: Wasn't the universal consensus only a week ago that a milder than normal November was likely? I don't know about universal but the long range was showing that this cold spell would be short lived and we'd rebound to above normal after a few days. Now it looks like cold shot moderating to near normal then another cold shot and repeat. At least as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 42 minutes ago, RedSky said: Wasn't the universal consensus only a week ago that a milder than normal November was likely? Depends on who you asked I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Front comes thru Thursday maybe some flakes on the backside especially far NW zones. Potential still showing for something around the 12th/13th. Worth keeping an eye on anyway since it could provide the first flakes of the season for parts of the metro area. EpS has been solid on the signal. Lost the bomb that it was showing but overall has a nice look with energy rounding a trof in the East and a wave off the coast throwing back some moisture into a fresh cold air mass. GEFS is trending in the right direction. I am posting the mslp trends over the past 4 runs as well as the 500mb anomaly maps. Note the pna ridge firing out west with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Looks like a partial PV intrusion this month not the full scale lobe like last November. Far below normal but not the 30F below like last year that was insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 16 hours ago, RedSky said: Looks like a partial PV intrusion this month not the full scale lobe like last November. Far below normal but not the 30F below like last year that was insane. Congrats on next week. Every medium range model has you getting measurable snow now. NJ in the crosshairs less than a week out. What could possibly go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 GEFS and GEPS close to the coast. EPS oddly enough is the farthest SE and off the coast. Not a bad place to be. Would rather this be 3 or 4 weeks from not but this can definitely happen especially with a fresh cold arctic air intrusion as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 I think we have our first real threat of the season! Don't enjoy seeing a perfect scenario like the 6z gfs 7 days out though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 A bit OT but does anyone else miss the long duration events of the past? Feels like forever since we've had one. The fast movers are fun especially when you get insane rates but I love the 24 hour+ events like PD 2003. Hope we get some blocking during this winter so we can see another, it's been since 2010 since we have gotten one of those I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 12z GFS is a bit warmer and weaker with the low so the 95 corridor starts as rain and has a solid period of mixed precipitation but still has a long duration winter event. Snow totals aren't as robust but it's good to see it have some consistency. Now we hope for the Euro to climb back aboard at 12z. The 00z euro still brought 1-2 inches to us despite it being well east of the GFS. I'd take that in a heartbeat for mid november. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 32 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 12z GFS is a bit warmer and weaker with the low so the 95 corridor starts as rain and has a solid period of mixed precipitation but still has a long duration winter event. Snow totals aren't as robust but it's good to see it have some consistency. Now we hope for the Euro to climb back aboard at 12z. The 00z euro still brought 1-2 inches to us despite it being well east of the GFS. I'd take that in a heartbeat for mid november. The usual trends have begun....congrats New England and far interior lol. Joking of course but funny to see the jump from the bullseye SE of us now into NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Ukie is an apps cutter. Good times are here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 12 minutes ago, RedSky said: Ukie is an apps cutter. Good times are here again. If this were DJF many would be reading the signs and sticking a fork in this one. Whaddya think.....95% of the time we see this, these systems never trend back the right way? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 I hardly buy into next week at all at this point. I'm barely able to digest what is going on but it just doesn't seem like a good setup to me. I will stay tuned though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If this were DJF many would be reading the signs and sticking a fork in this one. Whaddya think.....95% of the time we see this, these systems never trend back the right way? Too early and we are not past weenie handbook rule #11 and what will the 12z ECM say. New GFS is like an 86 Ford Escort. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 ECM and Ukie in near perfect agreement so there it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, RedSky said: ECM and Ukie in near perfect agreement so there it is. But the GGEM shifted S and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 0z runs will help clarify things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 GEPS is flat, weak sauce, and far enough off the coast to essentially be a nonfactor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Euro only shifted about 250 miles west from 00z lol great consistency. I don't think any solution is set in stone yet. Models clearly don't have a good read on it right now. Let's wait until we are inside 4 days before making definitive statements on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: GEPS is flat, weak sauce, and far enough off the coast to essentially be a nonfactor Go figure. So we have everything from apps runner, coastal hugger, or OTS. I don't think any of the models have a clue right now with the drastic changes run to run on many of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Isotherm's winter outlook is rather grim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 12th/13th 'event' has all the ear markings of a mid range threat in a relatively progressive pattern that ends up being one consolidated lo farther N than progged with just a fropa for many. Could be wrong but has alot of resemblance to several systems last winter that never materialized. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Winter 2021 should be a good one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12th/13th 'event' has all the ear markings of a mid range threat in a relatively progressive pattern that ends up being one consolidated lo farther N than progged with just a fropa for many. Could be wrong but has alot of resemblance to several systems last winter that never materialized. GFS has morphed into just that. Hello winter 2019 you were the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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