NYCweatherNOW Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 4 hours ago, doncat said: That's the same guy who posted very definitively "No more 90's" last Wednesday. Post it? I never said that. I said we can get one or two... snowski said 3-5, Central Park got 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Post it? I never said that. I said we can get one or two... snowski said 3-5, Central Park got 2... I wasn't referring to anything you said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 73degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is -1.6[70.2]. Should be +1.2[71.8] by the 17th. 67.2* here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 Same old story this week. Brief warm up followed by another big Canadian high to cool things off again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Same old story this week. Brief warm up followed by another big Canadian high to cool things off again. I’m hoping that’s a precursor for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 55 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I’m hoping that’s a precursor for winter Warm and wet cold and dry? We had a bunch of that last winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: I’m hoping that’s a precursor for winter We probably have to wait until October for the first clues. Last October we saw the dramatic SOI reversal and more Niña-like SST state west of the dateline. We’ll get to see if the current more Niño looking pattern can hold through this October. SOI currently continues negative with a developing WWB west of the dateline and most positive IOD since 2015. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 26 minutes ago, psv88 said: Warm and wet cold and dry? We had a bunch of that last winter lol. I mean the canadian high when a storm approaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 Some mets are signalling that around 9/22 another Hurricane Sandy may strike. Deep trough in mid-west at that time may pull any storm available toward the EC. It was the anomalous trough in 2012 that sucked Sandy toward us and then made it cold enough to snow in the N'oreaster a week later. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Some mets are signalling that around 9/22 another Hurricane Sandy may strike. Deep trough in mid-west at that time may pull any storm available toward the EC. It was the anomalous trough in 2012 that sucked Sandy toward us and then make it cold enough to snow in the N'oreaster a week later. there was also a strong -NAO and blocking high to our northeast for Sandy.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 A lot of forecasters are worried about a tropical system hitting the east coast next weekend with the pattern in place. Way too far off to speculate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 Definite overperforming day today. Forecasts were mostly 73-75 but its now up to 80 across much of interior nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A lot of forecasters are worried about a tropical system hitting the east coast next weekend with the pattern in place. Way too far off to speculate. Ugh. I'm out of town next weekend with a flight back to LGA Sunday afternoon. Last thing I need is to be trapped in Pittsburgh in the midst of my lateral interviewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Ugh. I'm out of town next weekend with a flight back to LGA Sunday afternoon. Last thing I need is to be trapped in Pittsburgh in the midst of my lateral interviewing. It would be the following weekend like the 22nd-23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It would be the following weekend like the 22nd-23rd Yeah that's the weekend I'm talking about. I noticed the GFS last night had a Floyd redux for that Sunday and the 12z is showing a massive cane on a Dorian-like track (for our area, not further south). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 25 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Ugh. I'm out of town next weekend with a flight back to LGA Sunday afternoon. Last thing I need is to be trapped in Pittsburgh in the midst of my lateral interviewing. 17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It would be the following weekend like the 22nd-23rd LOL- I would not get too worried either weekend....lot of hype out there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 48 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Some mets are signalling that around 9/22 another Hurricane Sandy may strike. Deep trough in mid-west at that time may pull any storm available toward the EC. It was the anomalous trough in 2012 that sucked Sandy toward us and then make it cold enough to snow in the N'oreaster a week later. Right now, the ensembles are not suggesting the kind of severe AO/NAO block that was in place prior to and up to Sandy's dramatic left-turn. That doesn't mean that a tropical cyclone can't threaten part of the East Coast, only that the probability of a Sandy-type scenario is probably a low one given the present guidance. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: LOL- I would not get too worried either weekend....lot of hype out there The gfs just found out yesterday it was going to get hot this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 9, 2019 Author Share Posted September 9, 2019 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: Some mets are signalling that around 9/22 another Hurricane Sandy may strike. Deep trough in mid-west at that time may pull any storm available toward the EC. It was the anomalous trough in 2012 that sucked Sandy toward us and then make it cold enough to snow in the N'oreaster a week later. Any meteorologist who is calling for a Sandy like scenario at this juncture is pretty irresponsible. But with the pattern expected to be in place there is an increased risk for a tropical system to effect the east coast as others have already stated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: Some mets are signalling that around 9/22 another Hurricane Sandy may strike. Deep trough in mid-west at that time may pull any storm available toward the EC. It was the anomalous trough in 2012 that sucked Sandy toward us and then made it cold enough to snow in the N'oreaster a week later. Another sandy is not happening thankfully, we may get a storm that’s close but right now no model shows a storm even close to us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Another sandy is not happening thankfully, we may get a storm that’s close but right now no model shows a storm even close to us! Never say never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 9, 2019 Author Share Posted September 9, 2019 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Never say never And now you know why I blocked him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 51 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Never say never I meant to say it’s unlikely. Hopefully it doesn’t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 Much warmer weather will push into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas by mid-week. Overall, readings will then remain above to much above normal afterward for an extended period of time. Earlier today, the temperature reached a near record 99° in Atlanta. That was the hottest September reading there since September 8, 1941 when the temperature also reached 99°. Today was also Atlanta's 72nd day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is tied with 1943 for Atlanta's 11th highest annual figure on record. Records go back to 1879. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter. The SOI was -21.51 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.174. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. It remains plausible that September 2019 could have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above in New York City. On September 8, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.495 (RMM). The September 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.101. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 66%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 8 hours ago, Snow88 said: Never say never Not in your lifetime. Best bet is another Irene, maybe a 1944 or 38 at worst within the next 50 years. A Gloria is most likely sometime within the next 5-10 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 74degs., or about 6degs. AN. Month to date is -1.3[70.3]. Should be +2.1[72.0] by the 18th. 70.2* here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 Still on track for a brief warm up next few days as the warm spots may approach 90. But followed by another cool down with the next big Canadian high. What a difference a year makes as Newark reached 98 last September. That was the 4th highest September maximum temperature at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2019 90 21 2018 98 0 2017 92 0 2016 94 0 2015 98 0 2014 95 0 2013 96 0 2012 92 0 2011 88 0 2010 98 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1953 105 0 2 1993 100 0 3 1983 99 0 4 2018 98 0 - 2015 98 0 - 2010 98 0 - 1980 98 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 Running a -2.2° temp departure thru yesterday here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 sandy had one of the strongest ao/nao blocks in front of it...it will never happen without a strong block...between 2009-2013 there were many blocking periods...recently the ao/nao has become positive and hopefully that will reverse by December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Not in your lifetime. Best bet is another Irene, maybe a 1944 or 38 at worst within the next 50 years. A Gloria is most likely sometime within the next 5-10 years. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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