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September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
445 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...

  Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM...
  Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM...

* Until 515 PM EDT.

* At 444 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing
  waterspouts was located over Barnum Island, moving east at 35
  knots.

  HAZARD...Waterspouts, wind gusts 34 knots or greater, and small
           hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
           hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly
           higher winds and suddenly higher waves.

* The severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Jones Beach around 450 PM EDT.
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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
445 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...

  Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM...
  Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM...

* Until 515 PM EDT.


There was probably a brief waterspout south of Jones Beach if you look at the velocities

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39 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

On the LIRR heading east through Nassau now. Sky is bright and sunny to the north, but looks eerie and chaotic to the south....

The storm lasted like 15 min here and then we got a rainbow and it's bright, sunny and hot again.

What's all this talk of hail and waterspouts?

 

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10 minutes ago, doncat said:

Made it up to 88° today...Just a T of rain.

Looks like the 11th 89 degree day of the year at LGA ties for first place.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Klga

Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature = 89 
Missing Count
1 2016 11 0
- 1995 11 0
  2019 11 119
2 1991 8 0
3 2015 7 0
- 2013 7 0
- 1994 7 0
- 1959 7 0
- 1943 7 0
4 2018 6 0
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29 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

I can see the lightning from the storms all the way in South NJ from Jersey City,NJ. Crazy crazy. 

Edit just saw there's storms off LI but I'm not sure that's where I'm seeing the lightning from as I'm looking nearly due S.

Could see it here too,pretty cool.

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Hurricane Dorian is currently bringing rain to portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. As Dorian moves northeastward across easternmost North Carolina, it will likely bring heavy rain and damaging winds to parts of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia tonight and tomorrow.

Afterward, Dorian will likely pass far enough to the east to avoid having a significant impact on the greater New York City region, though it will very likely lead to rough surf and strong rip currents. Parts of Long Island and eastern New England could still receive some periods of rain or heavier showers and gusty winds associated with Dorian. The storm will likely eventually make landfall in Newfoundland.

On account of Dorian's strong circulation, an unseasonably cool air mass could push into the region for the latter part of this week. Beyond that, the timing for a return to normal and then above normal temperatures could be slow.

Ahead of a frontal passage, temperatures rose into the 80s and 90s in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 96° (tied record set in 1937); Harrisburg: 89°; New York City: 87°; Newark: 90°; Philadelphia: 92°; and, Washington, DC: 96° (old record: 95°, 1985, 2008, and 2018).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around August 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter.

The SOI was -14.79 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.901.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September, though a warm monthly anomaly remains the base case. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

On September 3, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.069 (RMM). The September 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.030. The MJO has now been in Phase 4 for 9 consecutive days. The last time the MJO was in Phase 4 for at least 9 consecutive days was August 20-29, 2018 when the MJO was in Phase 4 for 10 consecutive days.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is 51%.

 

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Yesterday  looks like it will be our last 90 degree day potential for a while. Canadian high pressure builds back in behind Dorian. Then another one in about a week passes by to our north. This has been a very persistent pattern since late August. We’ll have to see if the warm spots can sneak in more 90 degree potential in mid to late September between the big Canadian highs.

DF1D65E2-E02B-497F-89CC-2B6156351524.thumb.png.277ae22d32c0de0c6d74037e6f8c9bf4.png

BCA546BD-2166-478C-9827-BF644410B95F.thumb.png.21412b9aec000ee7be90fbb20a210a87.png

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yesterday  looks like it will be our last 90 degree day potential for a while. Canadian high pressure builds back in behind Dorian. Then another one in about a week passes by to our north. This has been a very persistent pattern since late August. We’ll have to see if the warm spots can sneak in maybe one more 90 degree day sometime in mid to late September.

DF1D65E2-E02B-497F-89CC-2B6156351524.thumb.png.277ae22d32c0de0c6d74037e6f8c9bf4.png

BCA546BD-2166-478C-9827-BF644410B95F.thumb.png.21412b9aec000ee7be90fbb20a210a87.png

 

 

9/10-11 looks warm on the guidance and may be similar to (9/4) especially for the warmer spots.  Beyond there, then way out there 9/15 - 9/17 may offer the next brief warm up where 850s look to rise to 16-18c.   Seems a back and forth type pattern still. 

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