Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 hour ago, binbisso said: Upton lowered my forecast highs for both today and Saturday to 78 and 80 respectively. There have been post on here saying that temperatures for these two days are going to be well into the 80s so what is Upton missing to be 5 + degrees lower then what the posters are saying.. I'm at 63 degrees at 8:45 a.m. it's going to be very hard to get well into the eighties today with the front progged to pass by mid to late afternoon Temps quickly rising today-already 75 here and I'm not a hot spot. Today is easily 80 plus for most Temps will exceed guidance Sat with the dry ground in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Euro has mid to upper 90's next Wed and Thurs from NYC South and west. Philly has 97-98. Would be incredible if it verifies It would be incredible, that's why I find it hard to believe...Euro does seem to overdo extreme Temps sometimes both cold and hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Just now, doncat said: It would be incredible, that's why I find it hard to believe...Euro does seem to overdo extreme Temps sometimes both cold and hot. even if you took 5 degrees off, you're still looking at 90 or better for many locales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: even if you took 5 degrees off, you're still looking at 90 or better for many locales Yes 90° is much more realistic....it's those 95° readings...never say never though I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah wow that's like 110-112+ for summer. We'll have to see if days like today and this weekend overperform by more than a degree. If they do then I'd lean towards those higher readings. Huge help from the flash drought. In the long range all summer it showed multiple times Philly getting over 100 only to verify about 8 degrees cooler. They track it over at another board. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 I really really hope we get some rain today, if we do not we are getting close to a damaging drought on the south shore we’re actual trees begin to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I really really hope we get some rain today, if we do not we are getting close to a damaging drought on the south shore we’re actual trees begin to die. 9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I really really hope we get some rain today, if we do not we are getting close to a damaging drought on the south shore we’re actual trees begin to die. Radar looks decent out in PA-let's hope it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Radar looks decent out in PA-let's hope it holds together. From Upton's late morning AFD: Showers are nearing Orange county and continue to move east into the early afternoon. A shortwave trough swings across New England today sending a fast moving cold front into the region. Have increased PoPs to account for the latest radar trends. Also have noted rising dew points advecting north from the NJ coast. CAPE is beginning to increase with the higher moisture and should reside mainly east of NYC later this afternoon, supporting a line of low topped convection. Organized lift ahead of shortwave energy passes to the north, but convergence along the surface cold front will be the main factor in producing showers this afternoon/early evening. A few lightning strikes are possible and due to strong shear, gusty winds and an isolated severe gust cannot be ruled out. SPC has placed Long Island and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather. This line of convection should develop around 20z western Long Island and southwest CT and quickly sweep through and be offshore 23-00z. No concerns for any flooding due to the quick movement of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Up to 83° currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 83F here. Two notes...I wanted to compare with others 1. Since the dryness started, as anyone else noticed the surge in mosquito activity? I am getting bitten in my garage! 2. I was in city last night. 78F at 10pm. Bronx 75F. As soon as we got to the entrance to Van Cortland Park 73F. Exit of Van Cortland Park 63F. 63F at home. The Urban Heat Island is really very strong. It is scary how strong it is. The city no longer cools down at night. What are the long term effects of this? It cant be good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 I personally haven’t noticed an uptick in mosquitos, but I was in CT yesterday and all along the highways I saw signs displaying “Triple E Advisory Avoid Outdoors at dusk and dawn”, I’d never heard of “EEE” but after googling it I never want to go back to CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: 83F here. Two notes...I wanted to compare with others 1. Since the dryness started, as anyone else noticed the surge in mosquito activity? I am getting bitten in my garage! 2. I was in city last night. 78F at 10pm. Bronx 75F. As soon as we got to the entrance to Van Cortland Park 73F. Exit of Van Cortland Park 63F. 63F at home. The Urban Heat Island is really very strong. It is scary how strong it is. The city no longer cools down at night. What are the long term effects of this? It cant be good! The urban heat island has always been there as long as there have been cities...but of course it is expanding as we continue to develop. Not much you can do about it I guess as people need places to live as the population increases. For some reason it seems to me to be downplayed when talking about our increasing temps. I see it here as my temps here on si can be 10-15° lower at times than the urban areas. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Another high temperature guidance beat with the expanding flash drought conditions in the East. The 85 at Newark is 12 degrees above normal for 9-26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 18 minutes ago, Cfa said: I personally haven’t noticed an uptick in mosquitos, but I was in CT yesterday and all along the highways I saw signs displaying “Triple E Advisory Avoid Outdoors at dusk and dawn”, I’d never heard of “EEE” but after googling it I never want to go back to CT. its in Eastern CT/RI and Eastern MA-so far no cases this far west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 radar returns drying up....although upton says new action will fire east of NYC later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: radar returns drying up....although upton says new action will fire east of NYC later on To be expected, though it looks like everyone gets at least some rain. At this point any rain at all is welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Temps quickly rising today-already 75 here and I'm not a hot spot. Today is easily 80 plus for most Temps will exceed guidance Sat with the dry ground in my opinion. My high temperature was 79 degrees today Upton was spot-on down to 77 now mostly cloudy rain just to my West. I have to say that Upton has a challenging time with forecast highs and lows with the geographic layout of our area. Anywhere north and east and even Northwest of New York City stayed mainly in the seventies 70s today many places in central and north central New Jersey had highs in the mid-eighties.I believe Teterboro was the highest at 86. That's a big contrast in temps within such a short distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Huge cell firing just to my west...come to papa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Huge cell firing just to my west...come to papa! Yeah nice heavy downpour here but missed the main stuff just to my North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Nice strong line of heavy rain over Long Island Sound from the Queens Long Island border to Stamford looks like it could clip the North Shore of Long Island not sure if there's thunder and lightning though. another line to our West should hit everyone with much-needed rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Huge cool down over last hour. Down to 74 now. Minus 9 degrees. No rain. beat temp guidance today by 1 degree. I dont know if that counts as beating anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 heavy rain here...finally...looks like a 2nd lighter batch behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 LI going right through the gap in the storms. Typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Looks like South Jersey wins again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 another round of rain moving in here-moderate but will soak in....some of this should get LI too... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Heavy rains literally right to my north and west, but its moving ENE and may miss me entirely. Edit: Looks like I’m in a good position, but I’m sure it’ll be short lived. POURING now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Even with echos overhead , have only had sprinkles...nothing even measurable yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 0.37” here, which brings the monthly total to 0.89”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 .34” here, 1.27” for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Newark continuing to climb the highest number of 80 degree days during the last 10 days of September list. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Sep 21 to Sep 30 Missing Count 1 2017-09-30 7 0 - 1959-09-30 7 0 2 1986-09-30 6 0 - 1970-09-30 6 0 - 1968-09-30 6 0 - 1961-09-30 6 0 - 1945-09-30 6 0 3 2011-09-30 5 0 - 2007-09-30 5 0 2019-09-30 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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