Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,600
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

The latest PNA forecast shows a dramatic drop that could take place over a very short period of time.

PNA09232019-1.jpg

Since daily PNA data have been available beginning in 1950, there have been 13 cases where the PNA dropped 3.000 sigma or more during a 5-day period in the September 20-October 10 timeframe.

In the New York City region, such a development typically provided a signal that the remainder of meteorological autumn (October and November) would have similar temperature anomalies as September (9/13 or 69% of cases).

When it comes to a warm September, as appears very likely this year, 6/8 (75%) cases were followed by a warm anomaly over the October-November period. Both cool cases had cool October anomalies.

In short, the PNA appears to be offering a signal that the above normal temperature regime of September will likely predominate during the autumn.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest PNA forecast shows a dramatic drop that could take place over a very short period of time.

PNA09232019-1.jpg

Since daily PNA data have been available beginning in 1950, there have been 13 cases where the PNA dropped 3.000 sigma or more during a 5-day period in the September 20-October 10 timeframe.

In the New York City region, such a development typically provided a signal that the remainder of meteorological autumn (October and November) would have similar temperature anomalies as September (9/13 or 69% of cases).

When it comes to a warm September, as appears very likely this year, 6/8 (75%) cases were followed by a warm anomaly over the October-November period. Both cool cases had cool October anomalies.

In short, the PNA appears to be offering a signal that the above normal temperature regime of September will likely predominate during the autumn.

I don't need snow and ice storms, I'd just like to be able to turn the air conditioner off and leave it off for more than a few days at a time without roasting :D So if we're not talking 80's-90's while I'm cooking T-Day dinner, I'm good!  Thank you @donsutherland1

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Maureen said:

I don't need snow and ice storms, I'd just like to be able to turn the air conditioner off and leave it off for more than a few days at a time without roasting :D So if we're not talking 80's-90's while I'm cooking T-Day dinner, I'm good!  Thank you @donsutherland1

Fortunately, after part of the first week of October, the air conditioner may get a well-deserved break.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Funny how Newark couldn’t reach 90 on Memorial Day, Independence Day, and Labor Day. But had no problem making it to at least 91 on the first day of fall. Wonder if this has happened before?

5-27....82

7-4......89

9-2......77

9-23.....91 so far

I'm sure the drought like conditions of late helped.  Get rid of the soil moisture and temps usually have no issue rising rapidly on hot days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

I'm sure the drought like conditions of late helped.  Get rid of the soil moisture and temps usually have no issue rising rapidly on hot days.

Yeah, the flash drought has helped. Very unusual blocking ridge from the Arctic down into the US this month. 

 

B34FA03B-F624-4EC1-9CA5-FC25C54B1F3B.gif.e1d7894e594d4d54742209ce9aec9469.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...