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September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 70degs., or just Normal.

Your information has been a little confusing. Which climate site are you using? I've assumed it was Central Park which their normal is 73 right now and will be 72 (71.5) at the end of eight days. That would make that next 8 Days 2 to 3 degrees below normal. Newark the same LaGuardia is a degree higher can you clarify thanks

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1 hour ago, binbisso said:

Your information has been a little confusing. Which climate site are you using? I've assumed it was Central Park which their normal is 73 right now and will be 72 (71.5) at the end of eight days. That would make that next 8 Days 2 to 3 degrees below normal. Newark the same LaGuardia is a degree higher can you clarify thanks

The GFSx which for NYC is now 62/78---it claims.   Should balance out by the end of each month.

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Wed (9/4)  next shot at 90 and pending on how much rain falls or doesnt fall before then, maybe even the park can grab one or is it more 89's.  Beyond there, we'll see if the period 9/11 - 9/15 offers the next late season warmup to get another 90 before time runs out on warmth.  

 

Looking ahead back and forth 

9/4 : next shot at 90
9/9- 9/10 : cool shot 40s in suburbs
9/11 - 9/15 : warmup / potential 90s
9/16 : coold down back to normal (sep)

 

 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Wed (9/4)  next shot at 90 and pending on how much rain falls or doesnt fall before then, maybe even the park can grab one or is it more 89's.  Beyond there, we'll see if the period 9/11 - 9/15 offers the next late season warmup to get another 90 before time runs out on warmth.  

 

Looking ahead back and forth 

9/4 : next shot at 90
9/9- 9/10 : cool shot 40s in suburbs
9/11 - 9/15 : warmup / potential 90s
9/16 : coold down back to normal (sep)

90s after 9/10 would indicate records being broken. 

There is evidence of a substantial ridge building in around that time though however 90s will be a tough sell, definitely not happening for the city. 

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12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

90s after 9/10 would indicate records being broken. 

There is evidence of a substantial ridge building in around that time though however 90s will be a tough sell, definitely not happening for the city. 

Park will be tough but other parts of the city (LGA, SI)  not totally out of the question lately ridges have been able to deliver on heat.  The brunt of the heat besides July, was to about or just south of Philly thanks to the record negative nao.  

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37 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the latest 90 degree day on record for NYC and Newark is 10/17/1938...five weeks later there was 10" of snow on the ground...NYC saw 90 or higher in October four times...1927, 1938, 1939 and 1941...Newark in 1949 and 1959...

While 2017 was our warmest October on record at +7.2, Newark only made it to 86 degrees. 

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the latest 90 degree day on record for NYC and Newark is 10/17/1938...five weeks later there was 10" of snow on the ground...NYC saw 90 or higher in October four times...1927, 1938, 1939 and 1941...Newark in 1949 and 1959...

JFK hit 90 on 10/9/07, that was the latest I've experienced it and the only one in October.  Was that their latest (and only) in October too?

 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it rained here hard for about an hour and now the sun is coming back out lol.... waiting for the Yankee game to start!

 

Sun broke out a little but theres another batch of rain incoming, if not on top of you now. Hopefully brief.

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17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Check out the obs from the ny harbor buoy as the special marine warned storm went by. 

Def could have been a water spout in the vicinity 

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065

Storms out in Suffolk look nasty. Lots of rotation coming on shore now. Upton notes potential waterspouts and tornados , as the storms are warned 

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Tornado Warning for eastern Suffolk.

 
000
WFUS51 KOKX 022038
TOROKX
NYC103-022115-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0003.190902T2038Z-190902T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
438 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

* AT 437 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
  WAS LOCATED OVER MANORVILLE, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CALVERTON AROUND 450 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4081 7279 4081 7288 4094 7282 4093 7269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 200DEG 24KT 4085 7283 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

DS

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