September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[doncat]

Winds stayed up here last night so didn't quite make 40's...Month running a -1.0° departure thru yesterday.

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

disagree. if the ensembles are onto the right idea, we'll be flirting with near-record heat some of those days. obviously the core of the anomalous heat will be in the ohio valley, midwest to the southern mid-atlantic.

temps well into the 80s would be on par with july normals. 

GFS flirts us with 90 last few days of this month into October. Has zero precip through 12 days.

If it's gonna get hot then I'm rooting for it to go all the way. Give me October 90s. 

[purduewx80]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if we can pull it off one of these Octobers. The best we have been able to do since the 1940’s has been 89 degrees.

if any nearby sensor can do it in the expected pattern, it'll be EWR.

[NYCweatherNOW]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS flirts us with 90 last few days of this month into October. Has zero precip through 12 days.

If it's gonna get hot then I'm rooting for it to go all the way. Give me October 90s. 

Dude it’s practically 300 hours away haven’t you learned!

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

disagree. if the ensembles are onto the right idea, we'll be flirting with near-record heat some of those days. obviously the core of the anomalous heat will be in the ohio valley, midwest to the southern mid-atlantic.

temps well into the 80s would be on part with july normals. 

can't remember the year, maybe 2007 we had 2 or 3 days of low 90's in early October...it can happen...

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Dude it’s practically 300 hours away haven’t you learned!

Agree with what you're saying, op models beyond 5-6 days are not great, but in this case the ensembles support a run of warm/hot and dry weather for the next 10-15 days

[mattinpa]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The modeled warm up for late September into early October looks like an unusual one. It’s rare see such an amplified SE Ridge with a  strong a -NAO Greenland Block this time of year. But they are occurring at the same time as a very deep trough over the West. Another one of these famous 2010’s mega amplified patterns.

 

Count me as one skeptical of any guidance showing 90s in October. It would take well above average and even if the guidance is right about the long range, the brunt might not even be in the PHL-NYC corridor.. 

[nycwinter]

not happening its' crazy to even think it could happen...for nyc...

[doncat]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

can't remember the year, maybe 2007 we had 2 or 3 days of low 90's in early October...it can happen...

Depending on the station, but here I've never hit 90 in October in 40 years of record...Highest is 89 on the 8th in 2007.

[Cfa]

I really thought we managed to hit 90 in October of 2007, this feels like some sort of Mandela effect. I mean, I distinctly remember it, along with being in an overcrowded NYC school without AC or fans.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Cfa said:

I really thought we managed to hit 90 in October of 2007, this feels like some sort of Mandela effect.

maybe we fell just short then, but I remember a 2-3 day inferno right around Columbus Day or something like that...seems like 89 might have been it?

[WarrenCtyWx]

I could be mistaken but I think JFK hit 90 on 10/8/07. 

[binbisso]

5 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

I would bet the NE will not feel the brunt of the heat

I agree as has been the case most of the summer. Also 85/65 with a dew point of 60 in october with  3 + hours less of daylight will not feel anything like July. It could be + 10 in the departure but just like in April it's going to feel great the weather has been simply fantastic and looks to continue for the next few weeks I would like some rain however as others have stated

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

I could be mistaken but I think JFK hit 90 on 10/8/07. 

You are correct. It was our only major station to reach 90 degrees in October since the 1950’s. Looks like a warm offshore flow let JFK get a degree above LGA and EWR.

JFK  

2007-10-08

90

66

78.0

18.3

 

 

 

[doncat]

39 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I really thought we managed to hit 90 in October of 2007, this feels like some sort of Mandela effect. I mean, I distinctly remember it, along with being in an overcrowded NYC school without AC or fans.

Some sites did.

[donsutherland1]

Most recent 90° or above readings in October:

New Brunswick, NJ:
October 9, 2007: 91°

New York City-Central Park:
October 6, 1941: 90°

New York City-JFK:
October 8, 2007: 90°

New York City-LGA:
October 6, 1946: 90°

Newark:
October 6, 1959: 91°

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, binbisso said:

I agree as has been the case most of the summer. Also 85/65 with a dew point of 60 in october with  3 + hours less of daylight will not feel anything like July. It could be + 10 in the departure but just like in April it's going to feel great the weather has been simply fantastic and looks to continue for the next few weeks I would like some rain however as others have stated

The only difference is the sun won't be as strong but other than that it would feel like July. 

Guidance is still trying to figure out where the hottest anomalies will be, the EPS/Euro focuses on the Midwest/Ohio Valley. 

We'll also have to see if the maritime weakness gets stronger as we get closer as it could have a major role in the upcoming heat surge. 

[nycwinter]

checking accuweather long range forecast in october 5-10 i see 60's for highs those days..

[doncat]

77 high today...Should radiate nicely tonight.

[donsutherland1]

After another cool start, temperatures rebounded this afternoon. A very warm weekend now lies ahead. Temperatures will likely reach the 80s from Washington, DC to Boston.

Yesterday, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) experienced its first freeze of the season. That was its latest freeze on record. The prior record was September 7, 2009. As a result, that city's 85-consecutive day stretch above freezing ended. The old record was 68 consecutive days, set in 2009. Both records are likely, in large part, due to low Arctic sea ice. There is an implied 78% probability that Utqiagvik will record its warmest September on record. The existing monthly record of 37.7° has stood since 1998.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. Despite the guidance, the strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Such a scenario may be somewhat more likely than not. That outcome could have significant winter season implications.

Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, six years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2002, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 5/6 (83%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. 2002 had one such week ahead of what would evolve into an El Niño winter.

The SOI was -27.75 today.

On September 19, the SOI fell to -35.30. Often an SOI figure at or below -30.00 during the second half of September has been followed by a warmer than normal October. 2002, which saw severe October blocking during which the Arctic Oscillation fell to as low as -5.098 on October 18, was an exception.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.020.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Among those five cases, 2015 made a transition from predominantly negative AO values to predominantly positive ones during the fall. The combination of the AO's recent increase to the strongest positive values since April and some of the extended range guidance leave open a scenario where the AO is currently in the early stages of evolving to a predominantly positive regime. Such an outcome would also favor a warmer than normal fall and possible warm start to winter in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. For now, this is merely a hypothetical discussion of one potential path toward winter. Many other variables are involved. The only idea that carries weight at this time is that the possible evolution reaffirms the longstanding signal for a warm fall.

The latest EPS weeklies favor persistent ridging and warm anomalies in the East during October. The latest CFSv2 forecast for October also shows warm anomalies across much of the CONUS.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of 58.8°.

On September 19, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.613 (RMM). The September 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.560.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 87% and the probability of a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above is 58%.

[Stormlover74]

 

1 hour ago, doncat said:

77 high today...Should radiate nicely tonight.

Already dropped 15 degrees to 64 here

[Isotherm]

2 hours ago, doncat said:

77 high today...Should radiate nicely tonight.

 

42.5F to 77.5F and now down to 58F already. Impressive diurnal ranges the next few days.

[Cfa]

80/47 here, currently 62, today has felt very western.

[Santa Claus]

Boys.  Tell me.  Let me hear it.  Lay it on.  Don't hold back.  It's coming and you are all so ready.  Who's getting geared?  Who's got their seatbelts on?  Whose parachute is packed?  You know what it is.

• FIREPLACE BURNIN'
• PUMPKIN PICKIN'
• HOT CHOCOLATIN'
• HAND-HOLDIN'

We are talking about MAJOR relationship goals boys.  For the next two months, there will be exactly 0 weather events anyone with a life cares about, while the special someone picks house scents.  You're out measuring 0.14" while she has decided it's autumn spice in the diffuser for the long haul.  You're online debating MJO values and you come back to a lawn full of scarecrows you didn't even know you bought.

But what I want to know is, who here is actually up for it?  Who is ready for fall potpourri?  Who's ready for the bathroom towels to change over?

[weatherpruf]

46 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Boys.  Tell me.  Let me hear it.  Lay it on.  Don't hold back.  It's coming and you are all so ready.  Who's getting geared?  Who's got their seatbelts on?  Whose parachute is packed?  You know what it is.

• FIREPLACE BURNIN'
• PUMPKIN PICKIN'
• HOT CHOCOLATIN'
• HAND-HOLDIN'

We are talking about MAJOR relationship goals boys.  For the next two months, there will be exactly 0 weather events anyone with a life cares about, while the special someone picks house scents.  You're out measuring 0.14" while she has decided it's autumn spice in the diffuser for the long haul.  You're online debating MJO values and you come back to a lawn full of scarecrows you didn't even know you bought.

But what I want to know is, who here is actually up for it?  Who is ready for fall potpourri?  Who's ready for the bathroom towels to change over?

ALways a little sad to see the seasons change, but I prefer the fall weather to summer. The long wet, cold winters are starting to wear on me; it doesn't snow enough in my parts to make winter sports possible, and isn't warm enough for things like fishing. Never thought I'd say it, but am looking to retire where the fishing season is longer. 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are still averaging 72degs., which is about 8degs. AN now.

Month to date is  -0.2[69.6].       Should be +2.1[70.3] by the 29th.

We are still in the running to finish month with <1.0".       Currently 0.82".    Little predicted for remainder of month, as we remain in a halo area of dryness.

 

 

64.0* here at 6am.     63.5* at 7am.     70.8* by 11am.   72.6* at Noon (+4.1 from yesterday at this time)

[SACRUS]

Another gorgeous weekend shaping up a wide majority going back to Memorial day.  Looks like models hinting on seasonal theme with heat focuses a bit to our west and south but still very warm and a peak of 850s 1 r two days may deliver 90s.  Especially next weekend 9/28-29.

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Another gorgeous weekend shaping up a wide majority going back to Memorial day.  Looks like models hinting on seasonal theme with heat focuses a bit to our west and south but still very warm and a peak of 850s 1 r two days may deliver 90s.  Especially next weekend 9/28-29.

I'm more skeptical of 90s as the Euro/EPS has gradually been shifting the highest anomalies further west.

[NYCweatherNOW]

The latest computer models lowered the heat probabilities for late September and early October for our area getting any 90’s. It’ll be above average nonetheless. Enjoy the most perfect weather for the next few days at least. Currently 72 at 10am with low 52 humidity going up to 82 degrees or so.

[frd]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Plenty of competing influences for our sensible weather next few weeks. Could be a first for this time of year that all these factors combined together this way.

 

 

 

 

Are you saying a cold outbreak ?  Wishful thinking right.

In winter with longer wavelengths might be interesting . 

Also did you see the Euro 46 day outlook a lot of snow to drop over Canada in October.  Looks to get rather cold up there. Hard to tell if below normal cold though.