September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

it's day 10 on an op model...

[bluewave]

Islip holding in 1st place for driest September with very little rain in the forecast.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2019	0.33	12
2	1985	0.81	0
3	1986	0.82	0
4	1965	1.01	0
5	1982	1.12	0
6	1980	1.28	0
7	2007	1.31	0
-	2005	1.31	0
8	1997	1.42	0
9	1976	1.49	0
10	1967	1.57	0

[Stormlover74]

Ewr hit 49 this morning. Didnt drop below 50 until 10/13 last year

[forkyfork]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ewr hit 49 this morning. Didnt drop below 50 until 10/13 last year

humberto helped drag this airmass down

[SACRUS]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ewr hit 49 this morning. Didnt drop below 50 until 10/13 last year

Lowest was 53 Sep 2018 and overall a +3.2 for the month .  Doesn't look to go below 50 after tomorrow till after oct 7 from this very early projections

[frd]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Islip holding in 1st place for driest September with very little rain in the forecast.

@bluewave do you see anything out in the long range to change things up in terms of rainfall. 

And , what do you make of the recent pretty significant drop again in the SOI index. 

 

 

[frd]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

A big ridge north of Hawaii in October usually occurs with more of a La Niña-like pattern. The late September pattern is probably related to the MJO becoming active again. Very confused Pacific state currently. -35 daily SOI and +1 IOD are more El Niño-like. The cold Niña 1+2 is typical for a La Niña. Plus we have the near record SST blob again in the NE PAC. Kind of difficult to predict how all these competing influences will evolve and interact for the winter pattern at this early point.  

Seems the pattern near Alaska and in the GOA favor that warm blob growing even warmer between now and early October . A very complex Pac as you pointed out. 

[LibertyBell]

On 9/18/2019 at 8:10 AM, bluewave said:

1988 actually beat it for duration it with 20 consecutive days reaching 90. But 1953 still stands as our greatest late season heatwave. This decade has been so wet, that those 2 records remained out of reach. Really need extreme drought over the Central or Eastern US  to get such a long heatwave. 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2019-09-17
1	20	1988-08-17
2	14	2010-07-29
3	12	1995-08-04
-	12	1972-07-25
4	11	2012-07-08
-	11	1973-09-05
-	11	1953-09-03
5	10	2006-08-05
-	10	2002-08-19
-	10	1993-07-16

 

Thats weird- thats the first time I've seen the 1988 heatwave mentioned on a list like this!  We didn't hit 100 in 1988 though did we?  I remember that the strongest heat in 1988 was off to our west.

 

edit- I saw that was for Newark- I bet the city and long island didn't have that long a streak in 1988.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Islip holding in 1st place for driest September with very little rain in the forecast.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2019	0.33	12
2	1985	0.81	0
3	1986	0.82	0
4	1965	1.01	0
5	1982	1.12	0
6	1980	1.28	0
7	2007	1.31	0
-	2005	1.31	0
8	1997	1.42	0
9	1976	1.49	0
10	1967	1.57	0

Think we beat August 1995 for dryness?  That was a perfectly dry month right until the last day..... and notable for its heat and widespread forest fires!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ewr hit 49 this morning. Didnt drop below 50 until 10/13 last year

What was the lowest temp in our area? I saw a 37 at Newburgh (frost?) and a 38 at Monticello.  I wonder if Toms River or Westhampton Beach got lower?

 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures approached daily record low figures in parts of the Northeast this morning. Overall, many areas in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions experienced their coldest readings so far this fall.

Low temperatures included: Albany: 42° (lowest since May 14); Binghamton: 42° (lowest since June 4); Boston: (lowest since May 29); Bridgeport: 47° (lowest since June 4); Danbury: 36° (lowest since April 29); Islip: 46° (lowest since June 4); New York City: 52° (lowest since May 16); Newark: 49° (lowest since May 15); Philadelphia: 53° (lowest since June 15); Poughkeepsie: 38° (lowest since April 29); Providence: 45° (lowest since May 15); and, White Plains: 43° (lowest since May 15).

In the wake of this recent fairly sharp cool shot, temperatures will rebound starting tomorrow. A warmer to much warmer than normal weekend lies ahead.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. Despite the guidance, the strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Such a scenario may be somewhat more likely than not. That outcome could have significant winter season implications.

Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, six years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2002, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 5/6 (83%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. 2002 had one such week ahead of what would evolve into an El Niño winter.

The SOI value was -35.30 today. Often an SOI figure at or below -30.00 during the second half of September has been followed by a warmer than normal October. 2002, which saw severe October blocking during which the Arctic Oscillation fell to as low as -5.098 on October 18, was an exception.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.061. A sharp rebound will very likely commence tomorrow.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Among those five cases, 2015 made a transition from predominantly negative AO values to predominantly positive ones during the fall. The combination of the AO's recent increase to the strongest positive values since April and some of the extended range guidance leave open a scenario where the AO is currently in the early stages of evolving to a predominantly positive regime. Such an outcome would also favor a warmer than normal fall and possible warm start to winter in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. For now, this is merely a hypothetical discussion of one potential path toward winter. Many other variables are involved. The only idea that carries weight at this time is that the possible evolution reaffirms the longstanding signal for a warm fall.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of 58.8°.

On September 18, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.561 (RMM). The September 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.201.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 79% and the probability of a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above is near 50%.

[LibertyBell]

Don was that 36 the lowest you could find for our area? I couldn't find anywhere on Long Island that dipped into the 30s.  Or Mt Pocono or Toms River for that matter, which are usual cold spots for our region.

Don, if we have a warm and dry fall, isn't that a strong indicator for a mild winter with little snowfall?  I'm thinking along the lines of 2001-02.  I dont see any similarities here with either 2002-03 or 2010-11, which were both big blocking winters, although one was an el nino and the other a la nina.

 

 

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 51 here.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averaging 72degs., or about 7degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.2[69.8].          Should be +1.9[70.4] by the 28th.

58.2* here at 6am.    57.9* at 7am.    Just passed 60* with 60.2* at 9am.     65.6* by 11am.    68.5* at Noon.    Just passed 70* with 70.1*  at 1pm.    72.6* at 2pm.     75.5* at 3pm.     Lucky 7's at 4pm---77.7*.      Just shy of 80* at 5pm, but hit 80.0* at 5:15pm.

[tim]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What was the lowest temp in our area? I saw a 37 at Newburgh (frost?) and a 38 at Monticello.  I wonder if Toms River or Westhampton Beach got lower?

 

..KFOK @ 36* on this friday morning..i'm @ 44*.

[the_other_guy]

48F for low. 49F now

[gravitylover]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What was the lowest temp in our area? I saw a 37 at Newburgh (frost?) and a 38 at Monticello.  I wonder if Toms River or Westhampton Beach got lower?

 

I think Rob said he was at 35 yesterday morning.

1 hour ago, tim said:

..KFOK @ 36* on this friday morning..i'm @ 44*.

Ooh you got us up here by a couple of degrees this morning.

[jm1220]

Mid 40s this morning here. Brrrr

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, frd said:

Seems the pattern near Alaska and in the GOA favor that warm blob growing even warmer between now and early October . A very complex Pac as you pointed out. 

This time the blob is mostly at the surface and not as deep as it was back in 2014. So it could shift very quickly if the weather pattern driving the anomaly changes this fall into winter. It will probably come down to how the tropical forcing with the ENSO, SOI, IOD, and MJO evolves.

https://alaskapacificblob.wordpress.com/2019/09/17/has-the-blob-returned/

Based on this analysis, it seems that the current northeastern Pacific warm anomaly is really only evident in the surface layer, and therefore despite a robust surface presentation, we might say that the Blob is a mere shadow of its former self.  If correct, this suggests that it wouldn’t take much to wipe out the warm anomaly if the weather patterns shift over the northeastern Pacific in the coming months; but on the other hand, if relatively high pressure and light winds prevail this winter (as they did in winter 2013-2014), then the warm anomaly could deepen significantly and become more firmly established next year.  Time will tell if this second round of the Blob anomaly will prove to be as significant as the first.

 

 

[uofmiami]

44.9 this morning. 

[qg_omega]

35 in West Hampton this morning

[SACRUS]

Its probably a matter of days before guidance starts to hint at the next deluge and transition from dry, if i was a betting man it likely comes before oct 18th. I would be very surprised if we didnt have that transition. 

 

Ahead of there ridging dominates the east and above to much above normal temps.   besides an outside 90 sun/mon, 26-28 looks like the next shot of late season heat.  

[bluewave]

The near normal monthly temperature departures through the 19th will climb to above normal with the coming warm up. Looks like another long gap between temperatures in the 40’s at Newark. There was an extended one in 2017 between 9-2-17 and 10-01-17.

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Its probably a matter of days before guidance starts to hint at the next deluge and transition from dry, if i was a betting man it likely comes before oct 18th. I would be very surprised if we didnt have that transition. 

 

Ahead of there ridging dominates the east and above to much above normal temps.   besides an outside 90 sun/mon, 26-28 looks like the next shot of late season heat.  

Heat looks continuous except a slight mild down Tue/Wed

Other than that it'll feel like July well into October and very dry too. Low to medium grade drought setting up.

[nycwinter]

um no it won't feel like july into october ...

[bluewave]

Nice write-up on the rapidly intensifying flash drought.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Rapidly intensifying “flash drought” — attributed in part to extreme late-summer heat — continued to afflict many areas from the lower Midwest and Mid-Atlantic States to the Gulf Coast. Likewise, an abysmal Southwestern monsoon (to-date) led to increasing drought intensity and coverage in Arizona, while short-term drought persisted across the Hawaiian Islands. Conversely, moderate to heavy rain eased or alleviated dryness and drought from the Great Lakes into the Northwest as well as in southwestern Alaska and southern Puerto Rico.

 

 

[dmillz25]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Heat looks continuous except a slight mild down Tue/Wed

Other than that it'll feel like July well into October and very dry too. Low to medium grade drought setting up.

I would bet the NE will not feel the brunt of the heat

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Nice write-up on the rapidly intensifying flash drought.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Rapidly intensifying “flash drought” — attributed in part to extreme late-summer heat — continued to afflict many areas from the lower Midwest and Mid-Atlantic States to the Gulf Coast. Likewise, an abysmal Southwestern monsoon (to-date) led to increasing drought intensity and coverage in Arizona, while short-term drought persisted across the Hawaiian Islands. Conversely, moderate to heavy rain eased or alleviated dryness and drought from the Great Lakes into the Northwest as well as in southwestern Alaska and southern Puerto Rico.

 

 

scratch south east texas out of drought...

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

scratch south east texas out of drought...

The only question is how long it will take to scratch off areas closer to us. Could enhance our warming potential next several weeks before any reversal occurs. 

[purduewx80]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

um no it won't feel like july into october ...

disagree. if the ensembles are onto the right idea, we'll be flirting with near-record heat some of those days. obviously the core of the anomalous heat will be in the ohio valley, midwest to the southern mid-atlantic.

temps well into the 80s would be on par with july normals.