bluewave Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Today is a perfectly clear day with no clouds anywhere near NYC. A rarity over the last 19 months when there always seemed to be clouds popping up. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: Last few runs of the latest guidance (EPS especially) really building the ridge along the east coast once Humberto heads out. Still not fully clear the extent and focus of the late seaosn / early fall heat but Sep 21 - Oct 1 looking very warm. Seems like the trend since 2015 may prevail to start, but will it hold through November and beyond is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: Today is one of this perfectly clear days with no clouds anywhere near NYC. Big change from much of the last 19 months when there always seemed to be clouds popping up. We rarely get pure blue skies anymore. Last Fall it seemed like everyday featured clouds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 59 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: We rarely get pure blue skies anymore. Last Fall it seemed like everyday featured clouds. Low humidity really drying things out fast...grass burning here for the first time this growing season.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 42 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Low humidity really drying things out fast...grass burning here for the first time this growing season.... Been there done that for about a month now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Low humidity really drying things out fast...grass burning here for the first time this growing season.... Same, we're in a dry stretch that looks to last into next week, not to mention a return of the heat for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 6 hours ago, SACRUS said: Last few runs of the latest guidance (EPS especially) really building the ridge along the east coast once Humberto heads out. Still not fully clear the extent and focus of the late seaosn / early fall heat but Sep 21 - Oct 1 looking very warm. Latest Euro OP is just wow, EPS too. We could be talking 90s late September/early October. The dry stretch will only enhance the heat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 So much for late September 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 On 9/12/2019 at 11:51 AM, bluewave said: The latest 90 at JFK was 10-8-07 with the 2nd on 9-24-17. The latest 100 was 8-27-48 with 8-20-83 coming in 2nd. But it’s possible 9-2-53 was last 100 since the JFK data is missing for that month. 1953 still stands as our greatest late season heatwave. One of the few heat records that the 2010’s couldn’t beat. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1953-08-24 90 1953-08-25 93 1953-08-26 91 1953-08-27 93 1953-08-28 100 1953-08-29 100 1953-08-30 100 1953-08-31 102 1953-09-01 96 1953-09-02 105 1953-09-03 94 its amazing that it was the longest heat wave and yet occurred so late in the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: So much for late September definitely looks very 1983 esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Today is a perfectly clear day with no clouds anywhere near NYC. A rarity over the last 19 months when there always seemed to be clouds popping up. great for star gazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Some of us heading for our first 40's this week...Nice today, 75/56 temp split. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Brilliant sunshine and crystal clear skies covered the New York City area today. Temperatures across the Middle Atlantic region ranged from the middle 70s to the lower 80s. By Friday, warmer air should push back into the region. Unseasonable warmth could prevail during the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, both in the Southeast and France, the fierce summer of 2019 raged on. Records in the Southeast included: Apalachicola, FL: 98° (new monthly record); Atlanta: 98°; Crestview, FL: 100° (tied monthly record); Montgomery, AL: 103°. Records in France included: Aubenas: 94° (new monthly record); Brive: 90°; Carcassonne: 91°; Istres: 88°; and Nimes: 98° (new monthly record); and, Orange: 95°. Nimes has now set 4 monthly high temperature marks this year: February: 76°; June: 112° (all-time record); July: 102°; and, September: 98°. In terms of the Arctic, Arctic sea ice extent fell to 3.991 million square kilometers yesterday (JAXA). That assures 2019 of having the second lowest minimum extent on record. Only 2012 had a figure below 4 million square kilometers. In part due to the large-scale absence of sea ice near Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is on course for what could become that city's warmest September on record. Through yesterday, that city had seen 83 consecutive days with above freezing temperatures, which is 15 days longer than the previous record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. Despite the guidance, the strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Such a scenario may be somewhat more likely than not. That outcome could have significant winter season implications. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, six years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2002, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 5/6 (83%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. 2002 had one such week ahead of what would evolve into an El Niño winter. The SOI value was not available today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.362. The AO is forecast to return to positive values in a week or less. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Among those five cases, 2015 made a transition from predominantly negative AO values to predominantly positive ones during the fall. The combination of the AO's recent increase to the strongest positive values since April and some of the extended range guidance leave open a scenario where the AO is currently in the early stages of evolving to a predominantly positive regime. Such an outcome would also favor a warmer than normal fall and possible warm start to winter in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. For now, this is merely a hypothetical discussion of one potential path toward winter. Many other variables are involved. The only idea that carries weight at this time is that the possible evolution reaffirms the longstanding signal for a warm fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of 58.8°. The latest EPS weekly data shows widespread warmth across the CONUS during October. On September 16, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.075 (RMM). The September 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.905. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 81% and the probability of a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above is 52%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 5 hours ago, NJwx85 said: So much for late September It’ll be dry heat at least. 35% humidity level so at least it’ll feel that much. 89-90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 9 hours ago, bluewave said: Today is a perfectly clear day with no clouds anywhere near NYC. A rarity over the last 19 months when there always seemed to be clouds popping up. I did a little loop up to Greenfield Mass and down to E Hampton CT then home. I spent the extra hour or so in the car on the way up and went through Pittsfield then up through the heart of the Berks because it was just so damned beautiful out I didn't have the heart to do a closed window Interstate run. It was absolutely gorgeous up there today with the leaves starting to turn and the red maples a deep dark ultra rich color. The late afternoon light down the valley on 91 was great but when we got to the quiet corner area it was sublime. It's harvest season so the farm stands are overflowing with the bounty of a wet spring and a near perfect summer. I drive down the road snacking on grape tomatoes and fresh pears and peaches and ... and... mmm yummy fruits of the earth. Yup I had a good little road trip today 8 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Low humidity really drying things out fast...grass burning here for the first time this growing season.... Mine dried out and gave up in early August. The little dribs and drab kept things more green than otherwise here but a lot of things stopped growing around then. My garden took a hardcore hiatus until about 10 days ago when it woke up again. I've got peppers popping, tomatoes going wild and the lettuce found a second life altogether. Other than entirely too moist from mid Feb to mid June this hasn't been a bad year at all compared to '18. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 The next 8 days are averaging 70degs., or about 4degs. AN. Used 70/57 for today. Month to date is +0.3[70.7]. Should be about +1.3[70.6] by the 25th. 63.6* here at 6am. 69.0* by 2pm, with sun in and out behind cumulus clouds. Next 15 days look "El Boro", like watching grass grow---but it won't---not with just 0.10" rain. Taken literally, we would finish under 1.0" for the month (last time is Mar. 2012?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: its amazing that it was the longest heat wave and yet occurred so late in the season! 1988 actually beat it for duration it with 20 consecutive days reaching 90. But 1953 still stands as our greatest late season heatwave. This decade has been so wet, that those 2 records remained out of reach. Really need extreme drought over the Central or Eastern US to get such a long heatwave. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2019-09-17 1 20 1988-08-17 2 14 2010-07-29 3 12 1995-08-04 - 12 1972-07-25 4 11 2012-07-08 - 11 1973-09-05 - 11 1953-09-03 5 10 2006-08-05 - 10 2002-08-19 - 10 1993-07-16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 53F this morning Coldest day this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 I dont mind the dry but it will probably ruin our foliage season if we don't start seeing some rain by the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 The next 2 days will arguably be the coolest until mid October. Ensembles show ridiculous heat for late September/early October with upper 80s to localized 90s possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 14 hours ago, doncat said: Some of us heading for our first 40's this week...Nice today, 75/56 temp split. I've had 40's way up here a few times already but this morning the coolest of the season thus far, bottomed out at 42. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 45 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The next 2 days will arguably be the coolest until mid October. Ensembles show ridiculous heat for late September/early October with upper 80s to localized 90s possible. I warned you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: The next 2 days will arguably be the coolest until mid October. Ensembles show ridiculous heat for late September/early October with upper 80s to localized 90s possible. also little to no rain-pattern appears to have flipped after a long period of wet months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: I've had 40's way up here a few times already but this morning the coolest of the season thus far, bottomed out at 42. Same here... Got down to 42° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Swells from Humberto were increasing this morning and should peak Friday with some 8 foot waves. It should rival Dorian in size as Humberto has a huge wind field this morning. The swell being generated now will arrive then as it’s takes time to travel. thats really the only interesting thing going on weather wise. I’m sure everyone’s sick of hearing me complain about having to water!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 37 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Swells from Humberto were increasing this morning and should peak Friday with some 8 foot waves. It should rival Dorian in size as Humberto has a huge wind field this morning. The swell being generated now will arrive then as it’s takes time to travel. thats really the only interesting thing going on weather wise. I’m sure everyone’s sick of hearing me complain about having to water!! Not really L.B. That does, however, depend, on how and where you do it. As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 I don’t get all the complaining about the wx This month has been perfect thus far. Mild days, cool nights, humidity in check, some cold, some hot, lots of sun. We so infrequently get this in New York… I can’t understand why anybody that likes weather hasn’t liked this weather 69F. 47% Humidity 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: I don’t get all the complaining about the wx This month has been perfect thus far. Mild days, cool nights, humidity in check, some cold, some hot, lots of sun. We so infrequently get this in New York… I can’t understand why anybody that likes weather hasn’t liked this weather 69F. 47% Humidity it's awsome-it's just boring from a weather enthusiast's point of view. No Cat 5 headed for NYC or even rain showers..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: I don’t get all the complaining about the wx This month has been perfect thus far. Mild days, cool nights, humidity in check, some cold, some hot, lots of sun. We so infrequently get this in New York… I can’t understand why anybody that likes weather hasn’t liked this weather 69F. 47% Humidity Well for all the heat talk the first 20 days of September will average close to normal. Euro Op relinquished some of the excess ridging too. It tries to build a -NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 64/44 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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