September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

 

Don it is interesting that the Weather Channel through weather.com has October and November as being below average in the NE and December near to above. While Accuweather is going for mainly pleasant conditions . 

 

 

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2019-09-11-fall-early-winter-temperature-outlook-wsi

 

As winter begins, climate models suggest warmer than average conditions across much of the country. The Southwest will remain much above average, while the Southeast may be near or slightly below average.

It remains possible that signals from atmospheric blocking could outweigh any impacts from atmospheric El Niño, which would result in considerably cooler temperatures across the eastern half of the country.

In addition, an area of well above average ocean temperatures off the West Coast, known as the "blob," may also have an impact on temperatures across the country late this year.

"While the blob is but one factor this winter, the unusually warm waters in the northeastern Pacific do seem to correlate with colder winters" in the Midwest and Northeast, according to Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company. The blob typically is more impactful later in the winter, but could have some impact in December.

 

While Accuweather has the Fall advertised as mainly pleasant in the NE. 

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-us-fall-forecast/70008922

 

AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said, “There are probably going to be people at the beaches for a longer duration this year compared to other years.”

By October, a cool down will be noticeable across much of the Northeast and Great Lakes, but it won’t signal any early wintry conditions for the regions.

He said, “I think the highest elevations of the Northeast will have the best chances for autumn snow as we get into mid-season, but I think we’re going to be waiting a long time for significant snow that’s going to stick.”

 

 

The most recent EPS monthly forecast calls for both a warm October and November. The CFSv2 has a near normal October (but has run cool in recent months) and a warm November. Until there are signs that the pattern will establish itself toward one that favors cold in the East, it's premature to have much confidence there. By late October or November, there will probably be better insight. For me, at least, it's too soon to try to make a winter call.

[donsutherland1]

Warmer readings will likely push northward tomorrow.

During the forthcoming week, Humberto will likely recurve away from the U.S. East Coast. It should have no impact on the overall weather in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter.

The SOI was -26.86 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.934.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of 58.8°.

On September 13, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.397 (RMM). The September 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.591.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 61%.

　

　

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averaging 71degs., or about 4degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.5[70.4].           Should be about +1.3[70.5] by the 23rd.

70.7* here at 6am.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Another front another precip bypass. Not a drop of rain. 

[bluewave]

Very consistent pattern. Next big Canadian high with extended easterly flow arriving in a few days. Then maybe 90 degree potential for the warm spots in about a week as the Bermuda high flexes.

More easterly flow

Next 90 in warm spots?

[SACRUS]

Clearing after quite a humid late summer evening

 

[SACRUS]

Dews slowly dropping as it starts drying out

 

[NYCweatherNOW]

Very nice day out there, get out and enjoy it winter is coming...73 degrees going up to 80 here in the city

[Rtd208]

In Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter last night he mentioned things could become active again after the 21st. He has concerns about the possibility of excessive rainfall.

[Stormlover74]

Looks like a nice but brief cooldown for midweek but next weekend looks hot again (mid 80s would be around 10 degrees above normal)

[the_other_guy]

No offense guys but thus far, you’re really over blowing the warmth.

Since the one hot day last week, for all the talk of 80s, We haven’t seen any. 

Today we may do it

This week looks like a bunch of 70s.

Thus far, the heat that guys have been talking about on here has been south of us.

Pleasant, dry 70F for the noon reading in Hastings

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

No offense guys but thus far, you’re really over blowing the warmth.

Since the one hot day last week, for all the talk of 80s, We haven’t seen any. 

Today we may do it

This week looks like a bunch of 70s.

Thus far, the heat that guys have been talking about on here has been south of us.

Pleasant, dry 70F for the noon reading in Hastings

 

 

 

Today and tomorrow and then next friday thru Sunday all look at least low to mid 80s here

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

No offense guys but thus far, you’re really over blowing the warmth.

Since the one hot day last week, for all the talk of 80s, We haven’t seen any. 

Today we may do it

This week looks like a bunch of 70s.

Thus far, the heat that guys have been talking about on here has been south of us.

Pleasant, dry 70F for the noon reading in Hastings

 

 

 

Today and tomorrow and then next friday thru Sunday all look at least low to mid 80s here

[CIK62]

If anyone is still looking at Humberto getting near us as was earlier indicated (before any low level center was determined and that L/L became part of the data set), the CMC still makes a funny move west  and northwest on Day 5.   The NAVGEM dilly dallies the storm too---near Hatteras.

[doncat]

Made it to 83 here today.

[SnoSki14]

8 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Very nice day out there, get out and enjoy it winter is coming...73 degrees going up to 80 here in the city

My forecast shows at five 80s days in the next 10.

[the_other_guy]

Are those 5 days in the 80s 5 days out like this weeks heat wave was?

Just curious

[SACRUS]

 

9/15

 

LGA: 85
New Bnswk: 85
TEB: 85
PHL: 85
EWR: 84
ACY: 84
TTN: 83
NYC: 82
BLM: 82
JFK: 81
ISP: 80

[donsutherland1]

Another warm day lies ahead for tomorrow. Readings should reach or exceed 80° in much of the Middle Atlantic region tomorrow before a push of cooler air arrives for a few days. However, warmer air could again overspread the region late in the week.

Humberto will very likely recurve away from the U.S. East Coast this week. It should have no impact on the overall weather in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

Earlier today, France experienced renewed record heat. This warmth likely resulted, in part, from the combination of the currently positive Arctic Oscillation and the lengthening of wave lengths that is now underway. Record high temperatures included: Cognac: 91°; Dijon: 88°; La Roche-Sur-Yon: 88°; Limoges: 88°; Lyon-Bron: 91°; Nevers: 90°; Orange: 91°; Poitiers: 90°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter.

The SOI was -11.70 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.078. That was the highest figure since April 23, when the AO was +1.503.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Among those five cases, 2015 made a transition from predominantly negative AO values to predominantly positive ones during the fall. The combination of the AO's recent increase to the strongest positive values since April and some of the extended range guidance leave open a scenario where the AO is currently in the early stages of evolving to a predominantly positive regime. Such an outcome would also favor a warmer than normal fall and possible warm start to winter in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. For now, this is merely a hypothetical discussion of one potential path toward winter. Many other variables are involved. The only idea that carries weight at this time is that the possible evolution reaffirms the longstanding signal for a warm fall.

Overall, September remains on a path that will very likely lead to an above normal monthly temperature. A mean figure of 70.0° or above remains possible for New York City.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of 58.8°.

On September 14, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.708 (RMM). The September 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.356.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 75%.

Finally, Artic sea ice extent reached 4.025 million square kilometers yesterday. That would rank as the third lowest minimum extent figure on record, about 9,000 square kilometers above the 2016 minimum extent figure. On account of the limited Arctic sea ice, Utqiagvik (Barrow) could see September 2019 rank among the warmest Septembers on record and possibly become the warmest September on record.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Are those 5 days in the 80s 5 days out like this weeks heat wave was?

Just curious

Onshore (easterly/NE'rly) flow looks to subside and reverse by Fri/Say (9/20-21) with 850 temos in the 15-18C range, peaking at 18-19C next Sunday  (9/22) / Monday (9/23)

Looks like 2-4 days maybe 5 of 80s to potentially a few 90s in the warmer spots. 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averaging 69degs., or about 3degs. AN.

Month to date is just Normal here at mid-month  or 0.0[70.7].      Should be  +1.0[70.2] by the 24th.

71.5* here at 6am.

[bluewave]

Pattern has really dried out with all the Canadian high pressure dominating. NYC could end the record 19 month streak of 3.00 or more inches of precipitation. Many of our stations including NYC have less than 1.00 if rain through the first half of the month.

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
2018	2.18	5.83	5.17	5.78	3.53	3.11	7.45	8.59	6.19	3.59	7.62	6.51	65.55
2019	3.58	3.14	3.87	4.55	6.82	5.46	5.77	3.70	0.82	M	M	M	37.71

[doncat]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pattern has really dried out with all the Canadian high pressure dominating. NYC could end the record 19 month streak of 3.00 or more inches of precipitation. Many of our stations including NYC have less than 1.00 if rain through the first half of the month.

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
2018	2.18	5.83	5.17	5.78	3.53	3.11	7.45	8.59	6.19	3.59	7.62	6.51	65.55
2019	3.58	3.14	3.87	4.55	6.82	5.46	5.77	3.70	0.82	M	M	M	37.71

1.92" here this month and 45.62" for the year.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, doncat said:

1.92" here this month and 45.62" for the year.

The convection has been mostly a miss for many this month. Islip is only at .33 for September so far. That ties for driest first half September this decade.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Sep 15	Missing Count
1	2019-09-15	0.33	0
-	2010-09-15	0.33	0
3	2014-09-15	0.63	0
4	2016-09-15	1.18	0
5	2013-09-15	1.23	0
6	2018-09-15	1.64	0
7	2011-09-15	2.51	0
8	2012-09-15	2.54	0
9	2017-09-15	2.58	0
10	2015-09-15	2.80	0

[Brian5671]

Had some light showers here this AM but yes it's really dried out last few weeks.   September's without tropical activity tend to be dry

[bluewave]

51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Had some light showers here this AM but yes it's really dried out last few weeks.   September's without tropical activity tend to be dry

A stalled out front will also do it like with the record flash flooding last September. 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/FlashFlooding_092518#picture

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

A stalled out front will also do it like with the record flash flooding last September. 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/FlashFlooding_092518#picture

Looks like EPS could be signaling a front caught between trough and the Atlantic Ridge righ along, perhaps just inland from the EC later in the  end of next week of 9/26ish.  Either way 9/21 - 9/28 looks quite warm and steamy epecially towards the middle of next week.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pattern has really dried out with all the Canadian high pressure dominating. NYC could end the record 19 month streak of 3.00 or more inches of precipitation. Many of our stations including NYC have less than 1.00 if rain through the first half of the month.

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
2018	2.18	5.83	5.17	5.78	3.53	3.11	7.45	8.59	6.19	3.59	7.62	6.51	65.55
2019	3.58	3.14	3.87	4.55	6.82	5.46	5.77	3.70	0.82	M	M	M	37.71

That’s exactly how you pull it off with soil moisture running so high to our SW. I’m really hoping for a pattern change ASAP 

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s exactly how you pull it off with soil moisture running so high to our SW. I’m really hoping for a pattern change ASAP 

GFS and Euro show mainly cold fronts coming through every few days for the next week or so-maybe 10 days...that won't deliver much-need a stalled warm front or tropical remnants....

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s exactly how you pull it off with soil moisture running so high to our SW. I’m really hoping for a pattern change ASAP 

Lower dewpoints  coming this week after we failed to convert on the recent more humid pattern.