September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC's driest decade was from 1956-1965...September 1966 had a drought busting event...since 1971 NYC has gotten 20% more rainfall on average than the period 1869-1970...

Our climate has been becoming a much wetter one. That 80 inch amount  may be a bit overdone with the rain gauge problem in 1983. But White Plains picked up 74.15, so it may not be that far off.

 

[donsutherland1]

Cooler readings moved into the region this afternoon and will likely predominate through tomorrow before warmer air returns.

Farther south, record-tying and record-breaking heat prevailed in parts of the Middle Atlantic region. Records included: Baltimore: 97° (old record: 96°, 1931); Lynchburg, VA: 96° (tied record set in 1895); Richmond: 98° (tied record set in 1900)); Roanoke, VA: 96° (tied record set in 1933); Sterling, VA: 95° (tied record set in 1995); and, Washington, DC: 98° (old record: 96°, 1895 and 1931).

Based on the forecast pattern and some of the guidance, there is a chance that a tropical cyclone could pose a risk to parts of the East Coast next week. Recurvature away from the East Coast also remains on the table.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter.

The SOI was -24.42 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.473.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table.

The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. It remains plausible that September 2019 could have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above in New York City.

On September 11, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.082 (RMM). The September 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.509.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 60%.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

That’s pretty remarkable.   Thanks for the info

Some additional precipitation statistics for New York City:

Average annual precipitation: 1869-1970: 42.89"; 1971-2018: 50.74"

Years with 50" or more precipitation: 1869-1970: 12; 1971-2018: 21

 

[doncat]

Cooler air moving in now...checked radar awhile ago...was nothing  nearby to me, was surprised to see it raining now with 0.16" in the bucket.

[Santa Claus]

20 minutes ago, doncat said:

Cooler air moving in now...checked radar awhile ago...was nothing  nearby to me, was surprised to see it raining now with 0.16" in the bucket.

Same here, no radar returns, raining light-moderate.

[495weatherguy]

49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some additional precipitation statistics for New York City:

Average annual precipitation: 1869-1970: 42.89"; 1971-2018: 50.74"

Years with 50" or more precipitation: 1869-1970: 12; 1971-2018: 21

 

More amazing data.  What would you attribute the increases to?

[SRRTA22]

42 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Same here, no radar returns, raining light-moderate.

Likewise here. Been raining for the past hour and a halfish 

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some additional precipitation statistics for New York City:

Average annual precipitation: 1869-1970: 42.89"; 1971-2018: 50.74"

Years with 50" or more precipitation: 1869-1970: 12; 1971-2018: 21

 

Well that's pretty significant. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

More amazing data.  What would you attribute the increases to?

Probably a combination of internal variability and climate change. Certainly, the region is forecast to grow wetter by the climate models.

One has witnessed a rise in precipitation in many parts of the Northeast in recent decades. One has also witnessed an increase in exceptionally wet years, too.

Some additional information can be found here:

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/18/

https://www.c2es.org/content/extreme-precipitation-and-climate-change/

[NYCweatherNOW]

Fall is here 63 degrees reaching for a blanket. Tomorrow top five days of the year! Around 12pm-3pm

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 69degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.1[71.1].        Should be +0.8[70.4] by the 21st.

61.5* here at 6am.

[dmillz25]

11 hours ago, doncat said:

Cooler air moving in now...checked radar awhile ago...was nothing  nearby to me, was surprised to see it raining now with 0.16" in the bucket.

Low level moisture I’m assuming? It rained for a couple hours here as well

[bluewave]

Continuation of the less warm is the new cool pattern for us. Newark was +0.4 in August and +0.3 through the first 12 days of September. With the exception of July, the strongest heat this warm season has missed to our south and west. This is how DCA is ahead of EWR by 30 days of 90 or greater. It’s a first for the 2010’s. The normal amount is 9 to 21 days.

90 degree days at DCA and EWR

..........DCA....EWR....difference

2019....55...25....+30

2018....45...36.....+9

2017....43...22....+21

2016....58...40....+18

2015....52....35....+17

2014...24....15.....+9

2013...35.....25.....+10

2012...53.....33......+20

2011....50.....31.....+19

2010....67.....54......+13

10 day forecast temperature departure higher to our south and west

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Hoping we are not headed into a long dry period after yesterday’s precip fail. 

I am life guarding this week at Robert Moses field 5. Finishing up season 21. Today has the feel of a dry nor’easter with sand blowing side ways down the beach. The surf isn’t huge but it’s definitely elevated. 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Hoping we are not headed into a long dry period after yesterday’s precip fail. 

I am life guarding this week at Robert Moses field 5. Finishing up season 21. Today has the feel of a dry nor’easter with sand blowing side ways down the beach. The surf isn’t huge but it’s definitely elevated. 

The big high driving the easterly flow is close to record levels for September. The barometer reading in NYC is at 30.49. The record highest for September is around 30.58.

[dWave]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Hoping we are not headed into a long dry period after yesterday’s precip fail. 

I am life guarding this week at Robert Moses field 5. Finishing up season 21. Today has the feel of a dry nor’easter with sand blowing side ways down the beach. The surf isn’t huge but it’s definitely elevated. 

Whens the last day at Robert Moses? Sun?

[donsutherland1]

Warmer air will push back into the region beginning tomorrow.

Based on the forecast pattern and some of the guidance, there is a chance that a tropical cyclone could pose a risk to parts of the East Coast next week. Recurvature away from the East Coast is more likely than not.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter.

The SOI was -28.88 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.558.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table.

The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. It remains plausible that September 2019 could have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above in New York City.

On September 12, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.595 (RMM). The September 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.075.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 60%.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averaging 70.5degs., or about 3.5degs AN.

Month to date is  -0.4[70.6].        Should be about +1.1[70.5] by the 22nd.

67.6* here at 6am.

[bluewave]

2nd coolest first few weeks of September for our area this decade. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 13	Missing Count
1	2017-09-13	66.7	0
2	2019-09-13	71.2	0
3	2013-09-13	73.2	0
4	2011-09-13	73.7	0
5	2010-09-13	73.8	0
6	2012-09-13	73.9	0
7	2018-09-13	74.3	0
8	2014-09-13	75.1	0
9	2016-09-13	75.5	0
10	2015-09-13	77.7	0

[SACRUS]

Guidance hinting at perhaps the next and last shot at any heat 9/21 - into the final work week of September 9/23.  Will be interesting to see if this is muted and foccussed more south towards the DC/MD/DE area.

[the_other_guy]

Very warm on LI this morning.

Car thermometer already 77F

[psv88]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Guidance hinting at perhaps the next and last shot at any heat 9/21 - into the final work week of September 9/23.  Will be interesting to see if this is muted and foccussed more south towards the DC/MD/DE area.

Lots of phantom heat this summer. We were AN but the cool shots made it very tolerable. Seemed to be cool air lurking nearby all spring summer and now fall

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

It will find a way to not rain in the city or on the island today. Getting dry

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Guidance hinting at perhaps the next and last shot at any heat 9/21 - into the final work week of September 9/23.  Will be interesting to see if this is muted and foccussed more south towards the DC/MD/DE area.

The big ridges progged have really been muted significantly but we could still see a day or two of heat really pop like on Wednesday. 

[bluewave]

Very sharp temperature gradient across the region this September so far. Cool in New England with record heat over the Mid-Atlantic. 

 

[gravitylover]

Another .1 rainstorm. It's so dry in the woods now, it's sandy and dusty.

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Lots of phantom heat this summer. We were AN but the cool shots made it very tolerable. Seemed to be cool air lurking nearby all spring summer and now fall

Yeah with the exception of July’s heat that has been the case. The high DPs and I’m sure very warm overnight lows allowed us to have AN temps.  We didn’t have much record high heat this summer.  Feeling good with my 0 90-degree days call for Central Park this month. 

[Stormlover74]

Did I miss where today was supposed to be a washout?

[dWave]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Did I miss where today was supposed to be a washout?

Cloudy, but no rain here. Did feel a sprinkle for a min that's it. 

[frd]

20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table.

 

 

Don it is interesting that the Weather Channel through weather.com has October and November as being below average in the NE and December near to above. While Accuweather is going for mainly pleasant conditions . 

 

 

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2019-09-11-fall-early-winter-temperature-outlook-wsi

 

As winter begins, climate models suggest warmer than average conditions across much of the country. The Southwest will remain much above average, while the Southeast may be near or slightly below average.

It remains possible that signals from atmospheric blocking could outweigh any impacts from atmospheric El Niño, which would result in considerably cooler temperatures across the eastern half of the country.

In addition, an area of well above average ocean temperatures off the West Coast, known as the "blob," may also have an impact on temperatures across the country late this year.

"While the blob is but one factor this winter, the unusually warm waters in the northeastern Pacific do seem to correlate with colder winters" in the Midwest and Northeast, according to Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company. The blob typically is more impactful later in the winter, but could have some impact in December.

 

While Accuweather has the Fall advertised as mainly pleasant in the NE. 

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-us-fall-forecast/70008922

 

AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said, “There are probably going to be people at the beaches for a longer duration this year compared to other years.”

By October, a cool down will be noticeable across much of the Northeast and Great Lakes, but it won’t signal any early wintry conditions for the regions.

He said, “I think the highest elevations of the Northeast will have the best chances for autumn snow as we get into mid-season, but I think we’re going to be waiting a long time for significant snow that’s going to stick.”