Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 12z euro insists on 1-2 inches of rain tomorrow PM/eve from a PRE...all other models have nothing...another Euro coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 12z euro insists on 1-2 inches of rain tomorrow PM/eve from a PRE...all other models have nothing...another Euro coup? Was just gonna post this...been very insistant, other models not even close. 3k Nam does have some showers but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, doncat said: Was just gonna post this...been very insistant, other models not even close. 3k Nam does have some showers but not much. it's either way overdoing the PRE signal or it's onto something-it did move south a bit-very sharp cutoff north of I84....let's see if the NAMS suddenly show this solution at 18z/0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2019 Author Share Posted September 5, 2019 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: 12z euro insists on 1-2 inches of rain tomorrow PM/eve from a PRE...all other models have nothing...another Euro coup? 2 hours ago, doncat said: Was just gonna post this...been very insistant, other models not even close. 3k Nam does have some showers but not much. Usually anytime a model has shown a PRE for our area with an offshore tropical system it usually dones't pan out but since its the Euro and has been consistent with showing this I think it should be given some credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 NAM not really biting. 3K has some widely scattered showers that become a bit more numerous overnight but mainly N and E of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Beautiful sunset thanks to Dorian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Very tropical looking sunset. This is my first time taking the ferry between LI and CT. The air feels warmish but the wind is making it slightly chilly (but bearable). 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Hurricane Dorian is bringing heavy rain and high winds as it moves ashore in eastern North Carolina. Through 8:30 pm, North Myrtle Beach, NC had picked up 9.98" rain. That is the second highest daily precipitation amount on record for the Myrtle Beach area. Dorian is now starting to accelerate to the northeast. Dorian will likely pass far enough to the east tomorrow into Saturday to avoid having a significant impact on the greater New York City region, though it will very likely lead to rough surf and strong rip currents. Parts of Long Island and eastern New England could still receive some periods of rain or heavier showers and gusty winds associated with Dorian. The storm will likely eventually make landfall in Nova Scotia and then in Newfoundland before racing out into the far northern Atlantic. In the wake of Dorian, the weekend will feature a preview of autumn. Afterward, a return to normal and then above normal temperatures could be slow. Even as Dorian will help usher in a cool air mass in the Northeast, parts of Florida saw near record to record heat following Dorian's offshore passage. High temperatures included: Apalachicola: 97° (tied September record); Pensacola: 99° (highest September temperature since September 25, 1925 when the temperature reached 100°); and, Tallahassee: 99° (highest September temperature since September 19, 2005 when the temperature also hit 100°). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around August 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter. The SOI was -12.54 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.832. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September, though a warm monthly anomaly remains the base case. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. On September 4, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.151 (RMM). The September 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.079. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is near 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Yet another day on which the next 8 days average is holding at 70degs., maybe 1deg. AN. 66.2* here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 19 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The calm before the storm here at Jones beach ..plan on going to beach saturday not to hang but look @ waves, tidal washups,any sort of erosion..winds will still be gusty out of the NW..high tide on saturday is around 2:30 -3:00 pm.. hoping sunday turns out to be a good one..as the days are numbered now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Looks like south jersey is getting some of the outer limits of Dorian now. Seems he dumped quite prolific rains in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 20 hours ago, SACRUS said: 9/10-11 looks warm on the guidance and may be similar to (9/4) especially for the warmer spots. Beyond there, then way out there 9/15 - 9/17 may offer the next brief warm up where 850s look to rise to 16-18c. Seems a back and forth type pattern still. Yeah, that looks like the next time that some 90 degree heat may try to sneak in again. Short warm ups between big Canadian highs has been the theme since the end of July. The trough digs into the West 9/10-9/11 and really pumps up the WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Next storm to our attention is 94 L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 16 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Usually anytime a model has shown a PRE for our area with an offshore tropical system it usually dones't pan out but since its the Euro and has been consistent with showing this I think it should be given some credence. yep euro bailed last night. Most models have .10 to maybe .50 in some scattered showers later on and tonight. Weekend looks awesome! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that looks like the next time that some 90 degree heat may try to sneak in again. Short warm ups between big Canadian highs has been the theme since the end of July. The trough digs into the West 9/10-9/11 and really pumps up the WAR. Has been nice fore sure and mainly dry. This year was a similar progression as 2013 albeit less extreme both heat (Jul) and cool (Aug). That Sep was slighlty below avg for the area. Although its looking warmer towards mid Sep and the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Just a bit outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Summer outlook verification can be found here. The summer went very well in accordance with expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Just a bit outside So close yet so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 I'm thinking this may not verify Steve d 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 doubt many see 1-2 inches-unless a PRE sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 The radar this morning reminds me of many coastal storms during the Winter that pounded the mid-atlantic while we smoked cirrus up here. You can blame the kicker coming out of the mid-west for the hard right turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 46 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I'm thinking this may not verify Steve d The current movement is at 45 degrees which means it's still on a Northeasterly track. But just like during Winter, we have influence from the high over Maine/SE Canada. That's helping to funnel dry air down through Western New England and the current dewpoints are a reflection of that. If we were truly going to get an impact, it would be much more humid than it is now. The trough is too far East for us to get much rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Just had a blitz of heavy rain and strong winds at Jones beach. The rain definitely mixed down some winds. Swell has yet to arrive. Here’s my view for the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Some moisture finally beginning to push onshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 pretty heavy rain here in toms river with some 20+ gusts mixed in. Southern delaware getting some good rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 been a few storms just S of LI all morning, wouldn't be surprised to see a rogue lightning strike or two around this afternoon as the upper jet amplifies in the perfect spot for lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Some rain in lower Manhattan, looking more substantial looking toward SI, Sandy Hook. Breezy raw day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 struggling to get north of LI-will be close here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: struggling to get north of LI-will be close here. Getting it good here. Pouring, wind driven rain. Radar doesn’t do it justice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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