September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Rtd208]

The decline into the fall and winter months begins.

Post them here.

[Rtd208]

 

[NycStormChaser]

 

Yeah a few models Including the European model say it's possible for Dorian to ride up the coast. We are leaving tomorrow morning for Florida. Plan on intercepting the eye / eyewall like we did with Michael.

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see if the pattern producing the record SST’s in the Northeast Pacific can linger into winter like 13-14 to 15-16. This regime has been associated with the recent string of Canadian highs moving eastward off the New England Coast. Models continue this parade of big highs right into early September.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1167071076934967296

As of yesterday, northeast Pacific area-average SSTs are more than 2°C above normal, according to

@NOAANCEIclimate

OISSTv2 daily data. This is well above the peak warmth of the "warm blob" years (2013-2016). It's been a remarkable run up since May.

 

 

 

 

[frd]

On 8/30/2019 at 11:03 AM, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the pattern producing the record SST’s in the Northeast Pacific can linger into winter like 13-14 to 15-16. This regime has been associated with the recent string of Canadian highs moving eastward off the New England Coast. Models continue this parade of big highs right into early September.

@bluewave do you see anything to reverse the trend such as deep low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska or will this manisfestation continue?  We are in uncharted warmth there. That chart is really an eye openner.  

 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, frd said:

@bluewave do you see anything to reverse the trend such as deep low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska or will this manisfestation continue?  We are in uncharted warmth there. That chart is really an eye openner.  

 

It really is a very extreme pattern. We’ll just have to wait and see how things progress going forward. 

[frd]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It really is a very extreme pattern. We’ll just have to wait and see how things progress going forward. 

Last Fall it was there to a degree,  and many thought it would last and used that as part of a formula to imply a very snowy Eastern winter.  Yes,  plus the Nino too. 

But the warm blob fizzled and was never really a player come Jan and Feb.  This ( your chart ) keeps setting newer highs and from a technical chart perspective may even go higher. This with the low solar background state might be fun to watch. To me it implies maybe not a super hot Fall afterall.  

[donsutherland1]

Hurricane Dorian will likely remain a dangerous Category 4 hurricane through much of tomorrow. Later this weekend, the steering currents will likely break down leaving Dorian drifting on its approach to Florida. The probability that Dorian will avoid destructive landfall has increased. Most EPS members now show Dorian's remaining offshore. Nevertheless, the Florida coastline will still experience heavy rain and damaging winds. Afterward, it remains uncertain whether Dorian or its remnants will have a direct impact on the greater New York City region, though it will very likely lead to rough surf and strong rip currents.

Its impact on the larger circulation could drive an unseasonably cool air mass into the region for the latter part of next week.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat will shift into eastern Europe beginning tomorrow before dissipating.

Select daily records included: Cannes, France: 88°; Cape Mele, Italy: 93°; Clermont-Ferrand, France: 93°; Copenhagen: 79°; Fassberg, Germany: 88°; Genoa, Italy: 91°; Istres, France: 91°; Lille, France: 88°; Malmo, Sweden: 79°; Meppen, Germany: 86°; Nimes, France: 91°; Roenne, Denmark: 79°; Ronchi Dei Legionari, Italy: 95°; Soenderborg Lufthavn, Denmark: 79°; St. Dizier, France: 91°; Trieste, Italy: 95°; and, Wittmundhaven, Germany: 86°.

Anchorage has experienced its warmest summer on record with a mean temperature of 62.8°. That temperature exceeds what had previously been the warmest monthly temperature on record prior to July 2019 by nearly one-tenth of a degree while smashing the prior summer of 60.8° from 2016.

In addition, Anchorage experienced its warmest August on record. That follows a record warm June and a record warm July (and month). 2019 is the only year with three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm).

San Francisco experienced its warmest August on record with a mean temperature of 68.4°. The old record was 68.0°, which was set 2015. Summer 2019 was also the warmest summer on record with a mean temperature of 66.1°. Although that rounded figure tied the average from summer 2014, it was nearly five hundredths of a degree warmer.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -11.90 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.579.

The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

On August 30, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.183 (RMM). The August 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.109.

Finally, New York City had an August mean temperature of 75.5°. that was 0.3° above normal.

[CIK62]

The first 8 days of Sept. are averaging 70degs., or just Normal.

67.7*  here at 6am.

[bluewave]

On 8/31/2019 at 1:20 PM, frd said:

Last Fall it was there to a degree,  and many thought it would last and used that as part of a formula to imply a very snowy Eastern winter.  Yes,  plus the Nino too. 

But the warm blob fizzled and was never really a player come Jan and Feb.  This ( your chart ) keeps setting newer highs and from a technical chart perspective may even go higher. This with the low solar background state might be fun to watch. To me it implies maybe not a super hot Fall afterall.  

We can say this fall is starting out much cooler than we experienced in recent years. Several big Canadian highs rolling by to our north at least through the 10th. No major 95+ heat which was common in recent years through the first 10 days of the month.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 10	Missing Count
2018-09-10	98	0
2017-09-10	87	0
2016-09-10	93	0
2015-09-10	98	0
2014-09-10	95	0

 

[frd]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can say this fall is starting out much cooler than we experienced in recent years. Several big Canadian highs rolling by to our north at least through the 10th. No big 95+ heat which was common in recent years through the first 10 days of the month. Plus we’ll have to see how close Dorian gets to the region later in the week.

Certainly seems like a fundamental change has started and is evident in the sensible weather around your area and my area too.

Look at the Northern Plains and the summer they have had, you posted on that recently as well. The WAR seems not be as big as of a player as many would have thought , at least so far. The trend seems to be Eastern troughs. 

The Warm blob is a driver for sure.  I am planning now to over seed my lawn early. 

 

 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, frd said:

Certainly seems like a fundamental change has started and is evident in the sensible weather around your area and my area too.

Look at the Northern Plains and the summer they have had, you posted on that recently as well. The WAR seems not be as big as of a player as many would have thought , at least so far. The trend seems to be Eastern troughs. 

The Warm blob is a driver for sure.  I am planning now to over seed my lawn early. 

 

 

We’ll see if the warmer spots can sneak in a 90 degree reading ahead of the next cold front late Wednesday. That may turn out to be the warmest day here early this month.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll see if the warmer spots can sneak in a 90 degree reading ahead of the next cold front late Wednesday. That may turn out to be the warmest day here early this month.

Maybe the last 90 of the summer. And a couple oppurtunities of needed rainfall as well.

Your area has done much better than the Mid Atlantic with rainfall in the last 30 to 45 days.     

[SnoSki14]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll see if the warmer spots can sneak in a 90 degree reading ahead of the next cold front late Wednesday. That may turn out to be the warmest day here early this month.

I think 90s are possible on Wednesday, then a huge drop Thursday/Friday (60s) as Dorian heads OTS.

[dWave]

Dorian up to 175 mph winds as it approaching the Bahamas. Strengthening as it making landfall not a good thing.

[MJO812]

Winds are now up to 200mph. 

 

Very scary 

[gravitylover]

So just how wet is tomorrow going to end up in northern NJ? We paid for a booth at a craft fair and I'd hate for my wife's handmade inventory to get ruined.

[dWave]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Winds are now up to 200mph. 

 

Very scary 

I see 180 mph now. Either way its catastrophic. Pressure down to 912mb. How many hurricanes have actually made landfall at 175+. As opposed to storms that have achieved such level  but are at least somewhat weaker at landfall.

[ForestHillWx]

It's pretty much a perfect late summer day out this way. 

[SACRUS]

Evn though they will likely be spared any major impacts still amazing seeing this  220 miles from Miami/Ft Lauderdale lucky turn for them.

 

 

[qg_omega]

Any chance the trough on Wednesday either slows down or becomes a bit more negative tilt

[purduewx80]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Any chance the trough on Wednesday either slows down or becomes a bit more negative tilt

Noticing the 12Z ECMWF is starting to hint at that. I think its worth watching trends the next 48-72H for a possible capture. Would be much more concerned if I were on Cape Cod or Nova Scotia.

[doncat]

Anyone else been having a problem with the "Tropical Tidbits" site with images not loading properly...been doing it for a few days, don't think its traffic related. Or is it just me?

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, doncat said:

Anyone else been having a problem with the "Tropical Tidbits" site with images not loading properly...been doing it for a few days, don't think its traffic related. Or is it just me?

 Had the same thing pretty sure its traffic related

[IrishRob17]

11 minutes ago, doncat said:

Anyone else been having a problem with the "Tropical Tidbits" site with images not loading properly...been doing it for a few days, don't think its traffic related. Or is it just me?

It was doing it for me for a few weeks and only got worse this week which I figured was traffic making the issue worse. 

[donsutherland1]

Hurricane Dorian may begin to gradually weaken later tonight or tomorrow as its forward motion continues to slow and then it eventually begins to turn to the north. Even as Dorian will likely pass offshore, portions of the Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas' coastlines could still experience heavy rain and at least some damaging winds. Enough EPS members suggest the possibility of landfall to avoid completely ruling out such a scenario in Florida and especially in eastern North Carolina.

Afterward, Dorian will likely pass far enough to the east to avoid having a significant impact on the greater New York City region, though it will very likely lead to rough surf and strong rip currents. Parts of Long Island and eastern New England could still receive some periods of rain or heavier showers and gusty winds associated with Dorian.

Dorian's principal impact might be the amplification of the larger circulation. As a result, an unseasonably cool air mass could push into the region for the latter part of this week. Beyond that, the timing for a return to normal and then above normal temperatures could be slow. Some of the guidance is signaling a rebound to notably warmer conditions after mid-month.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, the latest round of heat that toppled records in large parts of Europe will be concluding Europe. Earlier today, a number of daily and even monthly records were registered in Norway and Sweden.

Select records included: Bardufoss, Norway: 73°; Bodo Vi, Norway: 73° (tied September record); Evenes, Norway: 75° (new September record); Kirkenes Lufthavn, Norway: 68°; Leknes, Norway: 72° (new September record); Liepaja, Latvia: 84°; Linkoping, Sweden: 81° (new September record); Murmansk, Russia: 68°; Norrkoping, Sweden: 82° (new September record); Pori, Finland: 77°; Stockholm: 79° (tied September record); Svolvaer, Norway: 68° (new September record); Vadso, Norway: 64°; Vassa, Finland: 77°; Vasteras, Sweden: 79°; and, Visby Flygplats, Sweden: 82° (new September record).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -14.32 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.186.

The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September, though a warm monthly anomaly remains the base case. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

On August 31, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.058 (RMM). The August 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.185.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is 46%.

[Rjay]

9 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

Noticing the 12Z ECMWF is starting to hint at that. I think its worth watching trends the next 48-72H for a possible capture. Would be much more concerned if I were on Cape Cod or Nova Scotia.

Lol getting interesting

 

 

[Gravity Wave]

 

Fun weekend coming up?

 

[jm1220]

That trough diving in west of Dorian has to be watched closely over the next few days in case it's more amplified and can force a more NNE as opposed to NE track. Not out of the realm of possibility at all that the city/east can get a good period of rain/wind and certainly eastern Suffolk. Latest GFS has strong tropical storm conditions over Cape Cod. It will definitely cause a lot of beach erosion. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, jm1220 said:

That trough diving in west of Dorian has to be watched closely over the next few days in case it's more amplified and can force a more NNE as opposed to NE track. Not out of the realm of possibility at all that the city/east can get a good period of rain/wind and certainly eastern Suffolk. Latest GFS has strong tropical storm conditions over Cape Cod. It will definitely cause a lot of beach erosion. 

The troughs have been quite strong since late August and there's a nice PNA building.

I know 9/10 times nothing ever happens but it's not like there's anything else going on.