FLweather Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Not sure if weakening or going through EWR. But the eye looks ragged and has gotten bigger via radar out of the Bahamas. Definitely stationary atm. Just wobbling over Freetown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 22 minutes ago, FLweather said: Not sure if weakening or going through EWR. But the eye looks ragged and has gotten bigger via radar out of the Bahamas. Definitely stationary atm. Just wobbling over Freetown. I feel bad for those folks. A lot of the buildings are not built to withstand that kind of (prolonged) wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: For us in the Triangle, we'll be very close to the cut off line for excessive rain. 50 mile difference in the track will give folks in central NC 5" or very little. Lol, we'll probably have the Wake County cut off. But it will be opposite (then many winter storms) for the haves and have nots... I feel like the further south it makes landfall, the worse it could be for us. I still doubt that it's too bad in Western and Northern areas of the triangle but Johnston and Wilson counties and points east? Ehhhh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Dorian a cat4 155mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 21 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I feel like the further south it makes landfall, the worse it could be for us. I still doubt that it's too bad in Western and Northern areas of the triangle but Johnston and Wilson counties and points east? Ehhhh. Yes. And schools like ECU out in Greenville said they are not planning on altering class schedules Thursday/Friday. We will see. Other hurricanes in the past have caused a lot of headaches out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 For folks west of I-95 this needs to at least come in at ILM I would think moving NNE or at least NE....all the models have a wind max on the west side under the heavy rain shield so usually on these tracks there is a inland area that see's a wind max that is usually more violent downdraft type winds, so the sustained winds might only be 20--25 but you get the big rolling gust well into the 50-70 range.... The GFS has up to 75knt winds at 925 MB which wont be that high up over a lot of central and eastern NC so gust to 50-70 at the surface is reasonable even as far inland as the Triangle on the GFS track...the GFS is also the weakest with the storm pressure wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 I like the 12z NAM. It looks to keep the storm off the coast right up to hour 84. I'm sure the outer banks would still see some damage. But on a selfish note, it would pull down some nice low/mid 50s dew points into central and eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I like the 12z NAM. It looks to keep the storm off the coast right up to hour 84. I'm sure the outer banks would still see some damage. But on a selfish note, it would pull down some nice low/mid 50s dew points into central and eastern NC. The last couple of runs of nam been suspicious. Even the 12z nam3k continues a due north approach. Now the strength is even more... Atm. Initialize at 944. But has it dropping down to 913mb moving due north east of Titusville,fl. Sounds fishy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 12Z GFS is a tad faster but otherwise very similar to the 06Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Ukie has it right at 940 at landfall over MHX then into the Pamlico and across the OBX.....if this track is anymore NE instead of ENE it would be a horrible hit for NC surge wise this track is bad for the rivers and southern beaches...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwertyu Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Some very good (or bad depending how you look at) videos form the Bahamas here. Edit: I don't know why the videos are so big, I don't know how to make them smaller. https://www.facebook.com/bahamafishing/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Trend appears to be a bit east at 12z on the GFS/NAM/GEM. Not reading to much into these oscillations until it regains motion tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Can't say for sure. That Dorian is moving W/NW atm. Or just wobbling. But the eye is ever slightly NW of Freetown. They're back in the S/SE eyewall. That southern side looks rough via radar out of Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 New Ukie pretty bad for NC, if those pressures are right its still a strong storm clips Cape Fear then over Emerald Isle and Bogue Banks into the Pamlico then across the OBX over Hatteras...50 miles left of that and interior NC gets hammered 50 miles to the east and they dont feel a thing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 For reference, based on what the guy said in that last video, what the houses around him looked like, and where the winds were coming from, I think it's here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/26°34'15.4"N+78°34'31.0"W/@26.570937,-78.5758192,252m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d26.5709368!4d-78.5752717 But if that's too speculative for the storm thread, please delete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 12z gefs spaghetti charts seem to favor the western side of NHC cone of Uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Looks like Dorian is wrapping up its ERC. Will it strengthen a little? We shall see. Colder cloud tops are expanding around its center again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 According to the Recon the pressure went up about 20mb during the ERC. Also, the new Euro is a tad farther southeast offshore the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakegrrl Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 UNC Wilmington has canceled classes this week and closed the University Wednesday-Friday. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 I heard that Josh went out to Abaco. The storm is now nearly stationary. Does anyone know if Josh is okay? Is he still under heavy winds/tides/surge from Dorian? If so, this is an extremely serious and grave situation. Lots of prayers going out to Josh for his safety. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Nice video of the trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 4 hours ago, HKY_WX said: Trend appears to be a bit east at 12z on the GFS/NAM/GEM. Not reading to much into these oscillations until it regains motion tonight. 12 hrs difference in timing or the ridge to the east of the storm being taller or shorter etc will all matter a lot to NC.....as usual lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Geez And I thought emotions ran high during snowstorms I'ma track this thing in this thread with more level headed people lol back to regular programming...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Anxious to see what Dorian has in store for SE NC; here in Jacksonville there are still tons of houses with blue tarps on the roof from Florence last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 44 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said: Geez And I thought emotions ran high during snowstorms I'ma track this thing in this thread with more level headed people lol back to regular programming...... Yeah the Tropical forum thread is a disaster....usually is. In the short term I think the thing to look for is how fast or slow Dorian takes reaching 28N....that about 100 miles from the current location of the center, current track says it wont get there for roughly 30 hrs....that means over the next 30 hrs this storm is not going to move more than 100 miles.....if it does move faster than that then the door opens for a more direct hit on NC..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 30 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah the Tropical forum thread is a disaster....usually is. In the short term I think the thing to look for is how fast or slow Dorian takes reaching 28N....that about 100 miles from the current location of the center, current track says it wont get there for roughly 30 hrs....that means over the next 30 hrs this storm is not going to move more than 100 miles.....if it does move faster than that then the door opens for a more direct hit on NC..... Yeah what it does in the near term can have huge implications as to the track down the road landfall, wind field expansion, ext alot of variable's at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 I'm beginning to have my doubts about Dorian being captured and pulled north. Looking at current WV. Looking at what's in the GOM. The trough too flat and stable to be to be pulling Dorian north much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Got Me a new "water proof" camera, Maybe one trip to the beach is in order.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 54 minutes ago, FLweather said: I'm beginning to have my doubts about Dorian being captured and pulled north. Looking at current WV. Looking at what's in the GOM. The trough too flat and stable to be to be pulling Dorian north much. I like looking at current observational trends as much as the next guy, but not a single GFS or ECMWF ensemble shows this. While I am always leery of the models in a stalled tropical system scenario, the amount of agreement we have between all the reliable models makes me much more confident that we will see a northward movement tomorrow. I think the question going forward is whether we will see a landfall in the Carolinas. Models have been waffling back and forth by 10 miles or so with no clear trend either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 19 minutes ago, thunderwolf said: I like looking at current observational trends as much as the next guy, but not a single GFS or ECMWF ensemble shows this. While I am always leery of the models in a stalled tropical system scenario, the amount of agreement we have between all the reliable models makes me much more confident that we will see a northward movement tomorrow. I think the question going forward is whether we will see a landfall in the Carolinas. Models have been waffling back and forth by 10 miles or so with no clear trend either way. Most definitely rock on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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