downeastnc Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 minute ago, GunBlade said: It’s basically an EF4 tornado with gusts into EF5, yet is bigger than many states in the country.....unreal. Those kind of winds though are limited to a small area, maybe 10-15 miles thick in the inner eyewall...as bad as this storm is hurricane force winds only extend out 40-50 miles from the center..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 48 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: https://www.al.com/hurricane/2019/09/hurricane-dorian-2019-watch-dorian-approach-the-bahamas-and-florida-on-these-webcams.html unbelievable what’s happening on these webcams Be careful what you trust. That first link looked like it had a loop in it at one point, and I know some folks on the tropical board thread were talking about fake live streams on YouTube. These seem legit, so far, but maybe just because they're not on Abaco. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=panj1oZ6zLM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Euro looks like a bad scenario from about MHX up to the lower OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 It tracks inside pamlico sound and exits between Buxton and KDH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 9/1/2019 2:00 PM Intermediate Advisory for posterity's sake. 185 MPH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Those Islands not having any affect on Dorian at all! Some of the videos out of there makes my stomach turn. Feel sorry for them. Been watching this convection on the south/southwest side of storm. Watching and expecting to see some wobbles. 10 or 20 miles means TS force or Hurricane force here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 25 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: oy Worst case scenario for the OBX. It would be the type of storm to completely alter the geography of the OBX - especially Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Not much change other than forward speed has slowed down. SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 77.3W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.88 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 That pressure on Euro does not automatically equal Cat 4 up this way it really depends on a lot of factors, however I imagine by then the wind field will be huge with hurricane winds well out for the center in gust....NHC has it dropping from 105 south of NC to 95 NE of NC....but they barely keep the center offshore it looks like.... Here is the NHC disco of Irene a few hrs after landfall while she was over the Pamlico Sound with winds of around 80-85 MPH and a pressure of 950 MB...... THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE INNER CORE ACTUALLY IMPROVED FOR A FEW HOURS. SINCE THAT TIME...THE RAGGED EYE HAS FILLED IN BUT THE CENTER REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON RADAR...WHICH WARRANTS A RETURN TO TWO-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85-90 KT TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A VERY RECENT CENTER DROP MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Something to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 From the 5 PM NHC discussion: The eye has been shrinking, and an eyewall replacement cycle is possibly occurring. The effect of the island terrain and the eyewall replacement cycle should result in some slight fluctuations in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours, but the hurricane will continue to be extremely dangerous one during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 18Z GFS and ICON have ILM to MHX landfall then up over the Pamlico to Hatteras...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 A little closer to the coast at 9/1/2019 5:00 PM NHC Advisory: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Dorian showing up on the radar in south FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Timing wise the GFS is fastest and would have the center knocking on the door by 9am Thur morning...thats only 3.5 days out at this point....so there is not that much time left even the slower Euro is hitting by Thur night. By this time if your not ready in SC/NC its too late really...9am Thur morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Not sure how good or bad the HRRR is on tropical stuff but you can definitely see the NW turn around hour 18-24 on the 0z run.Then it looks almost due north hour 30-36 and well off the coast. Just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 RDU write up 9pm tonight Wednesday night into Friday: Impact from Hurricane Dorian will increase across (at least) eastern portions of central NC by Wednesday night as the hurricane lifts north/northeastward along the GA/SC coast. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible. Despite around 6 to 12 hour timing differences in the latest operational GFS/ECMWF we expect the most significant impacts on Thursday into Thursday night. While there is still some uncertainty in the track of the hurricane as it approaches our latitude (until we start to see the turn northward and increase in forward speed on Monday into Tuesday). However, the continued run to run continuity over the last several days of both the ECMWF and GFS is leading to increasing confidence of at least eastern NC (generally to the east of the US 1 corridor) will see tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy rain (resulting in flash flooding potential, especially in the far east). As the hurricane weakens as it moves northward and near our coastline we will likely see the wind field expand. This will likely result in tropical storm force wind gusts spreading across (at least) eastern portion of the area, as mentioned above. It is possible to see wind gusts in the 60+ mph range across our far eastern/southeastern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 12 hours ago, Cheeznado said: Josh Morgerman, crazy person, is right in the path on Great Abaco Island. https://twitter.com/iCyclone He's a real professional but this IS pushing it, going out on Abaco in the path of Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Not sure how good or bad the HRRR is on tropical stuff but you can definitely see the NW turn around hour 18-24 on the 0z run.Then it looks almost due north hour 30-36 and well off the coast. Just an observation. If Dorian is going to put the western eyewall on land in FL it appears the models wanna do it around Cape Canaveral.....not sure how much weight I would put on the Hi Res models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 00Z GFS and ICON hold serve on eastern NC landfall....ICON much stronger though with a bigger wind field, much of NC east of US 1 gets strong TS conditions with gust well into the 70-80 mph range east of I-95....80-100 mph gust along the IBX/OBX, would be a solid hit for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 UKMET with a hit now at Morehead City/Havelock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Westward movement at only 1 MPH at 8:00 AM. Those poor people on Grand Bahama. Winds still at Cat 5 strength, but down a bit from the max.Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 The Canadian definitely an outlier. Makes brief landfall near Titusville wobbled near Orlando then off the coast. But ever so slightly. Hugs the coast line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 looks like 6z HWRF takes it into between CHS and Georgetown up through Myrtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: looks like 6z HWRF takes it into between CHS and Georgetown up through Myrtle. For us in the Triangle, we'll be very close to the cut off line for excessive rain. 50 mile difference in the track will give folks in central NC 5" or very little. Lol, we'll probably have the Wake County cut off. But it will be opposite (then many winter storms) for the haves and have nots... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 On a side note, what the heck is wrong with the recon planes? Looks like at least two had to abort, no fixes now for quite a while...C'mon AF, get your sh%it together... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 2, 2019 Author Share Posted September 2, 2019 46 minutes ago, FallsLake said: For us in the Triangle, we'll be very close to the cut off line for excessive rain. 50 mile difference in the track will give folks in central NC 5" or very little. Lol, we'll probably have the Wake County cut off. But it will be opposite (then many winter storms) for the haves and have nots... Angle of landfall if one occurs is so crucial. Big difference if a storm comes in around cale fear moving NNE or one that clips cape fear moving ENE. Changes the weather for alot of people. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 8 AM Cone: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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