rowjimmy73 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Watching that arrival time for ts winds showing up weds pm/Thursday am extrapolated makes me uneasy here in the piedmont. What's the chance it starts its post tropical transition and the western precip shield becomes a problem up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 It's really amazing how many times tropical cyclones parallel the SE coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 15 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yeah, I guess we're in the sights now. One other thing to look at is how fast this storm moves. With Florence it was the flooding from a slow/stalled storm. So as you said, if it's weaker and then if it's also fast moving, a SC/NC hit may not be too bad. Rainfall looks manageable on most models runs they have 6-10" maybe 12" along the coast,obviously a trend to a stall over us would be worse, it would take a Floyd/Bertha track to bring winds inland to really impact the bigger cities inland with anything more than 40-60 mph gust and that's just east of I-95...the OBX are in for a ride regardless unless this thing REALLY goes east......all of this is of course dependent on the strength and organization of the storm....assuming the models are right this will only be a Cat 1-2 moving at a pretty average speed. Irene was bad because it lasted soooooo long we had wind gust 50+ reported at PGV for 16 straight hrs....so even though winds peaked around 70-75 in gust here we had them for hrs and hrs...on the typical weak side to boot. Had Irene been moving even 10 mph it would have been much less of a impact wind and surge wise. Its going to be a long long long 5 days if the models dont all jump to a OTS solution by the end of the weekend....and then even as the storm approaches the Carolina's there is always those last second little wobbles and turns that make no sense that models miss... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 minute ago, rowjimmy73 said: Watching that arrival time for ts winds showing up weds pm/Thursday am extrapolated makes me uneasy here in the piedmont. What's the chance it starts its post tropical transition and the western precip shield becomes a problem up here? Still a whole lot to iron out, and the question you raise depends on when and where it makes landfall. If landfall is along the central SC coast and it moves inland, the transition should start occurring soon after, sending the shield NW. If it stays off the coast and makes landfall farther north, the rain shield wont get too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Still a whole lot to iron out, and the question you raise depends on when and where it makes landfall. If landfall is along the central SC coast and it moves inland, the transition should start occurring soon after, sending the shield NW. If it stays off the coast and makes landfall farther north, the rain shield wont get too far west. That's my fear. Could a stronger trough pull it more inland? Still haven't figured out the va piedmont since moving. But unnerving to be a 3rd year in a row with some sort of remnant system nearby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 26 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Rainfall looks manageable on most models runs they have 6-10" maybe 12" along the coast,obviously a trend to a stall over us would be worse, it would take a Floyd/Bertha track to bring winds inland to really impact the bigger cities inland with anything more than 40-60 mph gust and that's just east of I-95...the OBX are in for a ride regardless unless this thing REALLY goes east......all of this is of course dependent on the strength and organization of the storm....assuming the models are right this will only be a Cat 1-2 moving at a pretty average speed. Irene was bad because it lasted soooooo long we had wind gust 50+ reported at PGV for 16 straight hrs....so even though winds peaked around 70-75 in gust here we had them for hrs and hrs...on the typical weak side to boot. Had Irene been moving even 10 mph it would have been much less of a impact wind and surge wise. Its going to be a long long long 5 days if the models dont all jump to a OTS solution by the end of the weekend....and then even as the storm approaches the Carolina's there is always those last second little wobbles and turns that make no sense that models miss... And, that's apparently what we can't do: Assume the models are right. In just a few short days, we've transitioned from... A relatively weak storm that would track across Hispaniola, get shredded, and then weakly wobble over southern Florida, to A stronger storm that could potentially take the Andrew track across southern Florida and reemerge in the GOM before turning northward, to An incredibly strong storm that will track across the northern Bahamas before turning sharply north, scraping along the Florida coastline, and eventually coming ashore in North Carolina. Who knows where we will actually end up and what the written history of this storm will recount? Clearly, no one. Or, no one computer model. So, no matter how "advanced" or "evolved" we think we might be as humans, we still cannot accurately predict things that will happen a few days out. This is a reminder that we have far less control over things than we deceive ourselves into thinking we do. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 minute ago, calculus1 said: And, that's apparently what we can't do: Assume the models are right. In just a few short days, we've transitioned from... A relatively weak storm that would track across Hispaniola, get shredded, and then weakly wobble over southern Florida, to A stronger storm that could potentially take the Andrew track across southern Florida and reemerge in the GOM before turning northward, to An incredibly strong storm that will track across the northern Bahamas before turning sharply north, scraping along the Florida coastline, and eventually coming ashore in North Carolina. Who knows where we will actually end up and what the written history of this storm will recount? Clearly, no one. Or, no one computer model. So, no matter how "advanced" or "evolved" we think we might be as humans, we still cannot accurately predict things that will happen a few days out. This is a reminder that we have far less control over things than we deceive ourselves into thinking we do. Yep, I try not to look beyond 3 days ( but its tough to ignore a model that has a hurricane in your backyard in the 5 day range ).....I look at the models and see where they have it in 3 days and if they are all fairly close then its a good bet it will be within 50-100 miles of that point....so I am confident the storm will be somewhere off the middle of Florida coast by around 75-100 miles 3 days from now......it is way beyond the capabilities of modeling to get the timing of the trough/ridge interaction correct over the country for mid next week to determine the hurricanes track 50 miles one way or the other and those 50 miles make a big damn difference between a track up over inland eastern SC/NC and a track out over or just off the OBX. So it just wait and see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Stronger, and slowing down. 11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 Location: 26.0°N 73.4°W Moving: W at 8 mph Min pressure: 945 mb Max sustained: 150 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: There's your history....Storms just don't want to make landfall in central Florida to the SC/Ga boarder. Of course it's not them specifically, it's the upper air patterns (at that latitude) recurving the storm from westward to eastward motion. Only problem is the SC/NC coast line juts out too much for the recurve to miss (sometimes). To illustrate this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Much bigger re-curve illustrated on the cone map at the 8/31/19 11:00 AM Advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 So we'll be dealing with higher tides as the storm approaches. You have probably been hearing about the King Tides. These are times of the year where the tides are higher than normal. Early next week we'll be experiencing one of these events. This may be a bigger deal for Florida (storm off shore and the high tides occurring at the same time); but as the storm approaches us we could see earlier then normal storm surge (even as the storm is still far to our south). http://nckingtides.web.unc.edu/how-to-participate/calendar/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 12z ICON is a Miami hit. Is that model worthless for tropical weather? Odd to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbubba Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 At 48 hours, the GFS is a hair faster and further south on its latest run. It looks to be holding serve compared to the 6Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 9 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: 12z ICON is a Miami hit. Is that model worthless for tropical weather? Odd to see. They're talking about that now in the main forum (some saying its worthless). I would say it's another possible solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 20 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: 12z ICON is a Miami hit. Is that model worthless for tropical weather? Odd to see. Last night's run of the UK. Did the same more or less. Miami up the EC of FL. I'm hoping a middle ground solution. Mathew type of path. Not Irma type. A blend of UK/Icon would have 80-90 mph gusts here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 ILM to OBX landfall.. Take it to the bank.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 12 GFS looks like it rides just off the coast of the SE with maybe a touch of a landfall in SE NC. Would be bad for coastal NC. ^^as SENC just stated.. By the way, I'm having issues with Tropical Tidbits. It keeps wanting me to tour the sight (I have to hit skip for each click I make). Anyways to stop that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Fwiw. The UK caved. Takes Dorian from Bahamas roughly 40-50 miles off of Florida coast. Missing GA, SC,NC(Wilmington and Outer Banks) Has it intensifying east of Jacksonville FL. Down to 930mb east of Savannah Charleston Wilmington. Heaviest rains along and east of 95. From Fl to NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 The official NHC track for Dorian didn't change too much at the 2:00 PM Advisory: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 The real difference will be speed, typically they slow down to turn as sharp as the models have Dorian doing.....if the ridge erodes too fast it will stall and then move north once the western ridge builds in, there will also be a ridge forming to his east combined this will get him moving north....now if the ridge he is under now is a bit stronger and the ridge out west a bit faster the almost stall wont happen or last as long.....those runs were he does not slow as much are the ones that end up over eastern NC, faster means further north before the NE turn....if he sits in the north Bahamas for 24-36 hrs before moving north then its more likely he wont be able to get far enough north to get onshore before moving east, then again if the ridge to his east is taller then he wont be able to turn east as soon....these are all things that will determine where he ends up going and the models do not have the skill to get that right down to 50-100 miles in the 4-5 day range....this will come down to Monday, if by Monday the models all still have him hitting or just off the coast of SC/NC then chances are we have to deal with a hit at least a near enough miss to bring strong TS conditions on the coast....if not actual hurricane conditions even inland....it would take the models all going well OTS 150 miles off the coast for me to buy into the its a miss scenario before then. Kinda like snow storms, once they trend NW of you they rarely trend back S, same with canes once they are modeled to miss well east they almost never trend back west.... Even if its suppose to come into SC/NC in the 24-48 hr time frame those little impossible to model wobbles etc in the last 12-24 hrs can really move the LF point around... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 The 120 hr plot of the Euro/GFS/GFS legacy are pretty clustered....if they all wrong they are all wrong together.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 21 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The real difference will be speed, typically they slow down to turn as sharp as the models have Dorian doing.....if the ridge erodes too fast it will stall and then move north once the western ridge builds in, there will also be a ridge forming to his east combined this will get him moving north....now if the ridge he is under now is a bit stronger and the ridge out west a bit faster the almost stall wont happen or last as long.....those runs were he does not slow as much are the ones that end up over eastern NC, faster means further north before the NE turn....if he sits in the north Bahamas for 24-36 hrs before moving north then its more likely he wont be able to get far enough north to get onshore before moving east, then again if the ridge to his east is taller then he wont be able to turn east as soon....these are all things that will determine where he ends up going and the models do not have the skill to get that right down to 50-100 miles in the 4-5 day range....this will come down to Monday, if by Monday the models all still have him hitting or just off the coast of SC/NC then chances are we have to deal with a hit at least a near enough miss to bring strong TS conditions on the coast....if not actual hurricane conditions even inland....it would take the models all going well OTS 150 miles off the coast for me to buy into the its a miss scenario before then. Kinda like snow storms, once they trend NW of you they rarely trend back S, same with canes once they are modeled to miss well east they almost never trend back west.... Even if its suppose to come into SC/NC in the 24-48 hr time frame those little impossible to model wobbles etc in the last 12-24 hrs can really move the LF point around... Very good post. Another variable to the plot would be how strong of a trough swinging through the Northern parts of the US. Does it cause enough weakness in the ridges to the east and west for it to be pulled north or linger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 31, 2019 Author Share Posted August 31, 2019 If the euro were to come north instead of stalling the ridge to its east would have a little less time to break down and he might just get another 100 miles north or so. Fine details will matter a lot over the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 50 minutes ago, calculus1 said: The official NHC track for Dorian didn't change too much at the 2:00 PM Advisory: The cone/track doesn't change with the intermediate updates; only the storm's initial location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Still some 40mph gusts getting back in the W.Piedmont on the Euro.Higher the further east you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said: Still some 40mph gusts getting back in the W.Piedmont on the Euro.Higher the further east you go. Just an FYI, based on my experience with tropical systems the past few years, these maps tend to be over done by 10-20% vs what ends up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Still the same at 5:00 5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 Location: 26.2°N 74.4°W Moving: W at 8 mph Min pressure: 945 mb Max sustained: 150 mph Recon won't be there for a while - still over the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 43 minutes ago, Solak said: Still the same at 5:00 5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 Location: 26.2°N 74.4°W Moving: W at 8 mph Min pressure: 945 mb Max sustained: 150 mph Recon won't be there for a while - still over the GOM Typo? Or are they investigating what's over the Yucatan Peninsula ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 The plane took off from MS or West FL, approaching the islands. Another plane took off from FL and is now in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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