Cheeznado Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Euro misses FL altogether LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Euro misses FL altogether LOL. ...And now has a 956mb Major Hurricane off the SC Coastline... I hope the Carolina's haven't let their guards down! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 The Euro has no US landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Just now, Cheeznado said: The Euro has no US landfall. It does a Hurricane Matthew or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Yeah bad day at the beach but overall that run was very Matthew like...the real questions for us in NC now is if this misses Florida is it going to get east fast enough to clear NC, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, jjwxman said: ...And now has a 956mb Major Hurricane off the SC Coastline... I hope the Carolina's haven't let their guards down! Sure as heck have..... So far this has just been a FL thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 IF you blend the Euro and GFS you get a very Floyd like track..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Models are still very inconsistent, IMO. I definitely wouldn’t put any stock into any particular one as of now. This ridge is going to be the ultimate deciding factor as to where this things goes. If the ridge gets weaker or moves east, it’s going to have major implications on the the track. There are still many model runs to go. And so much times for things to change. We saw what happened with Irma and how much of a mess that was. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Euro further east today,eastern NC still gets hit by heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 CAT 4, 130mph at 8:30PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 mandatory evacuation for casa de Akeem (Martin County) beginning at 10am Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Shazam! Dorian starting to look more like Matthew in track and intensity. FL understandably getting all the attention, but everyone near the coast of GA, SC, NC needs to keep both eyes peeled on the forecast. VA probably should as well. Cautiously optimistic major flooding potential doesn't extend to inland areas of Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 2 hours ago, Solak said: CAT 4, 130mph at 8:30PM Up to 140 mph as of 11 pm now. And the center of the new NHC cone doesn’t even make landfall in FL as the cone shifts east. Looks strangely Matthew-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 This could end up being a fairly decent miss, seems odd the models had the ridge so overdone in the short range though....still a lot to worry about, that timing on the turn, hell does it actually turn, how far off the coast it rides, does it get further N and W and come into SC or NC etc....just yesterday we were pretty sure S Florida was screwed and now we are talking OTS being possible if not likely, I mean hell if the models were that wrong yesterday how much faith do we have in them for 5 days from now lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 The 00z GFS appears to be keeping it pretty far offshore of FL. I’m not sure it’s going to make landfall anywhere on the 00z. EDIT: Looks like it might try to make landfall northeast of KCHS, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 These hurricanes turn farther north and east than originally forecast 99.99999999999999% of the time. Nothing surprising here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 GFS was a smack down for NC..pretty much a Floyd track.... right over my house pretty much...I am sure it will only change 100 more times between now and then, though this run was much faster allowing it to make landfall before getting kicked OTS.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbubba Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 On the latest GFS run Dorian rakes the North Carolina coastline albeit as a slightly weaker storm. The past twenty four hour model runs have me concerned for the Carolinas receving the brunt of this storm as it moves up the Southeast coast. It's still early in the game but the Carolinas definitely need to keep an eye on Dorian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 19 minutes ago, downeastnc said: GFS was a smack down for NC..pretty much a Floyd track.... right over my house pretty much...I am sure it will only change 100 more times between now and then, though this run was much faster allowing it to make landfall before getting kicked OTS.... Tracking right over your house. 6-7 days from now. That's enough time for it to trend away from you, and then trend back closer again.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: GFS was a smack down for NC..pretty much a Floyd track.... right over my house pretty much...I am sure it will only change 100 more times between now and then, though this run was much faster allowing it to make landfall before getting kicked OTS.... I’ve been watching from a distance for many years and it seems that either the models are becoming less reliable, the weather is becoming harder to predict, or my memory is getting worse. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Oh Jesus, What great Track(s) to wake-up to this AM.. I'm in the process of Moving.. To a Home *almost* on the ICW Waterfront this week.. whoopie! I'll be living here.. 34.309653, -77.737413 Please someone UN-PLUG the ILM hurricane magnet! stat! At least I'll be able to get a good price on the Generator I'm selling.. I have Two.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Alil humor this morning for OUR Enjoyment.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 hour ago, SENC said: Oh Jesus, What great Track(s) to wake-up to this AM.. I'm in the process of Moving.. To a Home *almost* on the ICW Waterfront this week.. whoopie! I'll be living here.. 34.309653, -77.737413 Please someone UN-PLUG the ILM hurricane magnet! stat! At least I'll be able to get a good price on the Generator I'm selling.. I have Two.. Right I put a post yesterday telling my family in Wilmington and Jacksonville NC that it's going to curve and may affect them. I guess because NC sticks out in the ocean we always take a hit with these type of storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 145 mph now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 8/31/2019, 8:00 AM Advisory on Dorian: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Man I was hoping this storm would stay away from us in the Carolinas. Florence caused a lot of work for me last year. Our best chance now (as it looks) is it stays off the coast and then goes out to sea. I think that's a possibility we (I) can hope for. Big model runs upcoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Man I was hoping this storm would stay away from us in the Carolinas. Florence caused a lot of work for me last year. Our best chance now (as it looks) is it stays off the coast and then goes out to sea. I think that's a possibility we (I) can hope for. Big model runs upcoming. Still so far out I am skeptical/optimistic, the issues for us are the turn keeps happening farther east this keeps the storm further away from land and this should lead to a stronger storm up the coast. One saving grace with earlier runs was IF it does end up in NC the track was right on or just off the coast this would weaken the storm quite a bit, the further east it stays the less chance it weakens as much. The upside is the further east it is the more likely it is to turn OTS and miss all together. The thing to watch now is the energy in the mid west the models hint at that could capture Dorian or a significant increase in timing and less of a slowdown when/if it turns which would allow Dorian to get farther north ( onshore NC ) before kicking out.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, calculus1 said: 8/31/2019, 8:00 AM Advisory on Dorian: There's your history....Storms just don't want to make landfall in central Florida to the SC/Ga boarder. Of course it's not them specifically, it's the upper air patterns (at that latitude) recurving the storm from westward to eastward motion. Only problem is the SC/NC coast line juts out too much for the recurve to miss (sometimes). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: There's your history....Storms just don't want to make landfall in central Florida to the SC/Ga boarder. Of course it's not them specifically, it's the upper air patterns (at that latitude) recurving the storm from westward to eastward motion. Only problem is the SC/NC coast line juts out too much for the recurve to miss (sometimes). Once he passes 75W there has to be a turn to the NE at some point to miss land...the good news is we have several days before its even suppose to turn much less get up this way we are talking next Thur at the earliest unless the models really speed up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Still so far out I am skeptical/optimistic, the issues for us are the turn keeps happening farther east this keeps the storm further away from land and this should lead to a stronger storm up the coast. One saving grace with earlier runs was IF it does end up in NC the track was right on or just off the coast this would weaken the storm quite a bit, the further east it stays the less chance it weakens as much. The upside is the further east it is the more likely it is to turn OTS and miss all together. The thing to watch now is the energy in the mid west the models hint at that could capture Dorian or a significant increase in timing and less of a slowdown when/if it turns which would allow Dorian to get farther north ( onshore NC ) before kicking out.... Yeah, I guess we're in the sights now. One other thing to look at is how fast this storm moves. With Florence it was the flooding from a slow/stalled storm. So as you said, if it's weaker and then if it's also fast moving, a SC/NC hit may not be too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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