Ser Pounce Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Yep, another day of checking in every so often while I'm at work. Fortunately my place isn't in the city, not in a flood zone, and there are no trees within 100' of the house thanks to Hugo and the previous owners not planting anything. Definitely need to stop by Sam's already this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 I would agree that the longer it takes to get to the coast the better chance of finding a weakeness to turn north. With that said, it is all really a crap shoot at this point. Even if it came north, would we be looking at an OBX cane or just another Crabtree toilet stopper? We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, eyewall said: I would agree that the longer it takes to get to the coast the better chance of finding a weakeness to turn north. With that said, it is all really a crap shoot at this point. Even if it came north, would we be looking at an OBX cane or just another Crabtree toilet stopper? We shall see. I would think based on the latest Euro ensembles something kinda Ireneish, especially with the slow forward speed.....Irene was a iron cast bitch for us as she crawled up, PGV record a 50 mph or better gust 16 hrs in a row and we had hurricane force gust for 8-10 hrs...it was a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Interesting to see Brad step out of his usual conservative approach... Brad Panovich @wxbrad · 1m This morning the guidance is really coming into consensus and honestly the last several runs for a significant impact on Florida from #Dorian. Rapid intensification is possible to Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, Solak said: Matthew 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 12z GFS says Dorian will be traveling to (and maybe hanging out) a favorite amusement park: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 24 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 12z GFS says Dorian will be traveling to (and maybe hanging out) a favorite amusement park: IR of Irma or Maria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 34 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: IR of Irma or Maria? Lol..actually have no idea. Just grabbed the image to show the GFS wants to run Dorian through Orlando. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 I kind of like the 12z ICON. It still hits south Florida, but it now runs it northward to off the SE coast; which allows it to start becoming extra-tropical and pull cool air down from the north (..nor'easter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 So after moving more SW from 72 to 120 on the 12Z Euro we actually end up east of the 00Z last night from there along the Florida coast and instead of inland up the middle of the state the storm now rides just off or half on the coast.....the run from GA north is similar as well with it a bit more inland over SC/NC...not exactly making me feel like we in the Carolina's are out of the woods, a few more little shifts east like that and its first landfall will be Charleston to ILM somewhere.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Euro shifts the heavy rain shield further west this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Dorian is now a Cat 2 hurricane. 976.4 mb 95 knots (109 mph... 105 mph officially) Here’s the raw data: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 17 hours ago, eyewall said: I would agree that the longer it takes to get to the coast the better chance of finding a weakeness to turn north. With that said, it is all really a crap shoot at this point. Even if it came north, would we be looking at an OBX cane or just another Crabtree toilet stopper? We shall see. What on God's green Earth, is a Crabtree toilet stopper? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Jebman said: What on God's green Earth, is a Crabtree toilet stopper? That's the Crabtree creek that runs through Raleigh and always has flooding issues. Especially around the the Crabtree Mall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Last few hours looks like Dorian really starting to strengthen. An eye recently opened. Looks like its trying to become more symmetric in shape. That weak UL seems be aiding in the outflow aloft. See how things progress between now and then. Plenty of 85 degree water in between. Almost reminds me of Andrew. The environment and trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 That north turn is nuts, 75 miles one way or the other in the timing of that turn has huge implications for Florida and the Carolina's... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, downeastnc said: That north turn is nuts, 75 miles one way or the other in the timing of that turn has huge implications for Florida and the Carolina's... It would be nice if it stayed to the right side of the cone and that re-curve showing up on the GFS sends it back out to sea before landfall; as you said what an enormous difference +- 75 miles could make... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 12Z GFS big time right shift.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Just now, Cheeznado said: 12Z GFS big time right shift.... Yeah pretty much same track as 00Z Euro last night so far.....if we can get another 50-100 miles east then Florida will be spared a major disaster.....ridging might keep the GFS farther west and not turnout the system as fast as earlier runs though from GA north..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 This GFS run would actually be a fairly big deal for NC, at the very least tons of rain, depending on how healthy to core was that 24 hrs it spends off the coast before hitting NC again might be enough to get it back to a strong TS/weak cane even.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 GFS has that sharp cutoff in today's run as well.Someone could get 15''-20'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: GFS has that sharp cutoff in today's run as well.Someone could get 15''-20'' Seems like we are getting 500 yr floods every year lately lol.....the rivers are low right now though and can handle quite a bit of rain, flash flooding would be a major issue and all the major eastern rivers would go to flood stage with totals like that its just a question of how high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Horry Chit!, can you Imagine yet another 22" precip dump in around SENC? after last years deluge? We haven't even "recovered" yet.. From Flo... In some cases Matthew either.. I can see massive flooding occurring again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 I was planning on going to the SE NC beach next weekend. Not looking good now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 FWIW. The UK came east too from 0z runs. Slower than GFS. Wetter than GFS too. 15-20" around Orlando. Port St Lucie/Palm Bay to Orlando, to Ocala, to Jacksonville the NE. Timing wise for Orlando. GFS: Mid day Tuesday to over Tuesday/Weds morning. UK over night Tues to Wednesday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 I guess the good news about a quicker turn right is that the Florida panhandle will likely be spared another hit after Michael last year. It was looking like it could still be pretty strong well inland or even enter into the Gulf at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Some notable differences between GFS and Uk. Gfs is faster and weaker. 961mb landfall near Titusville. Uk 942mb near Port ST Lucie/Palm Bay. Has it SE Orlando 949mb. 956mb about 30 miles east of Ocala Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Dorian is now a Major Cat 3 Hurricane per the 2pm Intermediate Advisory from the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 12z Euro stalls Dorian just off the FL coast for at least 24 hours at hour 96. Then the trough picks Dorian up almost due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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