Dorian

[FallsLake]

4 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Part of me says keep a close watchful eye on Dorian here in NC but the models are adamant he takes that sharp left. They were also adamant he would hit the greater antilles and they missed horribly.

Once the high starts to take shape and we can get some G-4 flights sampling we can still have major model changes. Once that data starts if it still pulls the sharp left then I think our chances go way way down.

Again history, storms don't tend to directly hit coastal areas from central Florida to SC/Ga boarder. If I was a betting man I would put money on S. Florida or the SC coast. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, FallsLake said:

Again history, storms don't tend to directly hit coastal areas from central Florida to SC/Ga boarder. If I was a betting man I would put money on S. Florida or the SC coast. 

Frances and Jeanne say Hi! 

[FallsLake]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Frances and Jeanne say Hi! 

It can happen. But it's hard for those areas to get hit. >>really hard for the Ga coast to get hit. 

[Ser Pounce]

That'll take me out to about 2:30.

 

Right now for a purchasing decision I'm thinking less about storms and more, what could I use this thing for. I have no plans on getting an RV or tailgating so that's out. No clue what people use them for when camping because I've always done remote backcountry stuff out west. My landscaping stuff and mosquito fogger is all electric and it would be nice not to sling 200' worth of extension cords around. I'm leaning towards buying one because of that reason alone. It's not going to be a decision made because of unreliable model tracking 5 days out.

[scwxguy]

10 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

That'll take me out to about 2:30.

 

Right now for a purchasing decision I'm thinking less about storms and more, what could I use this thing for. I have no plans on getting an RV or tailgating so that's out. No clue what people use them for when camping because I've always done remote backcountry stuff out west. My landscaping stuff and mosquito fogger is all electric and it would be nice not to sling 200' worth of extension cords around. I'm leaning towards buying one because of that reason alone. It's not going to be a decision made because of unreliable model tracking 5 days out.

I'm watching the GFS, panel for hour 114 just came out at the time of this post - much more south and looks to be in line with NHC forecast. We'll see what the next ones show for any turn north.

Yeah not much other use for the generator for us either, but I view it as cheap insurance against power failures. I have no regrets that I have it. They can happen at any time. Transformers blow up, car crashes into a substation, etc. They've all happened to me. I lived up north prior to this and winter storms were what you had one for to keep your blower motor going on the furnace and the fridge. There were outages near me that were days in sub-freezing cold following ice storms. That's life threatening vs just miserable after a hurricane. I was down in Florida after Charley. Taught me to respect them.

[NC_hailstorm]

The Euro has 591dm heights over all  of NC,SC,and the eastern half of GA at day 4.It isn't the 594dm death ridge but that is plenty strong and will force it west,it's not coming too far north if it's right.

Heights weaken at day 5 over these areas  but its already into FLA by then.Timing and strength of the heights are still in question though.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said:

The Euro has 591dm heights over all  of NC,SC,and the eastern half of GA at day 4.It isn't the 594dm death ridge but that is plenty strong and will force it west,it's not coming too far north if it's right.

Heights weaken at day 5 over these areas  but its already into FLA by then.Timing and strength of the heights are still in question though.

Yep. Slower = LF further north. Faster = freight train running into FL scenario. Still looks like steering collapses after LF and this thing sits somewhere for a good while and dumps rain. That threat certainly might need to be emphasized in the coming days if these trends continue

[NorthHillsWx]

Blustery in St. Thomas!

https://www.earthcam.com/world/virginislands/stthomas/?cam=stthomas

[SN_Lover]

23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yep. Slower = LF further north. Faster = freight train running into FL scenario. Still looks like steering collapses after LF and this thing sits somewhere for a good while and dumps rain. That threat certainly might need to be emphasized in the coming days if these trends continue

Not good considering the costal plain has zero elevation change and it like a pan.

[scwxguy]

Euro is running...

[ncskywarn]

FYI now a hurricane:
: ...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE NEAR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ST. THOMAS... 

2:00 PM AST Wed Aug 28
Location: 18.3°N 65.0°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

[NorthHillsWx]

This is really ramping up into a scary situation for the Southeast, again. Dorian was able to avoid all major landmasses, go north of the most hostile shear, develop a core, and now appears to be entering an area of very favorable upper level outflow aided by good divergence from the ULL to the west. Rather than a small system completely re-building its core (track a few days ago) Dorian now has jet fuel to work with and a blocking high that seems intent on sending him into the Southeast somewhere. I think this is the moral of the story today. We are staring at a significant hurricane impact for the southeast. Models seem to be zeroing in on Central/North Florida but I would say anyone up to Hatteras is still in play. Upper air data input into models will start to tell the full tail on that front.

[scwxguy]

12z Euro has a landfall at 120 hrs/Monday near Ft Lauderdale and Palm Beach Co, then into GOM. This is further south than 00z

 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, scwxguy said:

12z Euro has a landfall at 120 hrs/Monday near Ft Lauderdale and Palm Beach Co, then into GOM. This is further south than 00z

 

Very impressive ridging. 

[Cheeznado]

Euro second landfall FL panhandle Thursday.

[NorthHillsWx]

18 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Euro second landfall FL panhandle Thursday.

Right in Michael's impact zone. Thankfully this is a week out and will likely change. A strong ridge north of the storm would certainly push him into the gulf. 

[shaggy]

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Right in Michael's impact zone. Thankfully this is a week out and will likely change. A strong ridge north of the storm would certainly push him into the gulf. 

Still time for changes but that window is shrinking for such large scale features. The ridge simply needs to be overdone by a decent amount to allow this to miss Florida.

[ILMRoss]

I really would not focus on anything 4-5 days out.

 

I think the medium range (2-4 days out) has a better-than-normal confidence because it would be a pretty wild failure if a 591-593ish Bermuda ridge did not pan out. The slight left turn to WNW (or even west) is going to happen.

 

I would also caution banking on a “northward” trend... Florence was pretty zeroed in on N.C./SC from the get go. Irma went south of guidance. It’s not a hard and fast rule.

 

 

.

 

[Wow]

Dorian looking dangerous.  Where's Stanley Ipkiss when you need him?

[vwgrrc]

Planned to spend the Labor Day weekend in Orlando with family. Maybe we should work on a plan B now?

[Cheeznado]

FWIW the latest HWRF has it up to almost a cat 5....

[downeastnc]

IF this is anything like the last few years we will see the models in good agreement until around Friday then all of a sudden we will start seeing several camps form in the ensembles of the Euro and GFS adding a ton of uncertainty in the final track......well at least that is what would happen if this was locked in on NC in this range.....

[jjwxman]

It’s not often you get to watch a strengthening Hurricane on radar. Dorian is looking healthy tonight. 

[shaggy]

Just cant see this one coming north of Florida unless major changes in the mid range occur. Shouldn't be a landfall problem for SC/NC but maybe a later rain threat if it crosses inland a few days after landfall

[ROOSTA]

Timing couldn't be more perfect. My Davis went on the fritz a few weeks back. Can only attribute to a possible lightning strike.
Figures I've been smack-dab ground zero for repeated runs, always thought that was the place to be five days out...shall see...
I have a back-up (TX Weather, the 8000 model)  and been wanting to seat for a few months now. Health issues have prevented me from getting on the roof disassembling old, attaching the new. Mostly it's the retraction of a telescoping antenna 40ft to the top and getting the guy-wire secured.
Possible storm of a lifetime, the good Lord will not allow this to happen!

I'm loaded for BEAR. Structure will withstand 150mph+, provision wise must go get some Fillet-Mignon. Generac is locked and loaded (100GA of propane) good for a week. Lost electric in Mathew for a week, never again...  

[shaggy]

GEFS should be interesting. At 0z it appears the high went from being centered just northwest of bermuda to northeast of bermuda. This allows the storm to start turning and it hits Georgia. A slightly weaker ridge and that turn could happen just a touch sooner and get it up the coast.

This ridge placement and strength is gonna be the big question the next 2 to 3 days.

[downeastnc]

Euro went east, now no longer goes into the GOM at all, hits about the same spot in S Florida as the 12Z but then rides right up the middle of Florida then hugs the coast just inland all the way to Hatteras...so the GA and Carolina folks just took a step back closer to being in play for a landfall or more than just rain....a shift 75-100 miles east of the latest Euro would be Matthew/Floyd type track....

[FallsLake]

I'm not sure what to think about the overnight model runs. Late yesterday it was looking like Dorian would maybe hit south Florida and then run right out into the Gulf. That would spare us farther to the north a lot of the affects. But overnight the models have shifted back east some and now show a hit farther up the Florida coast with a curve north and northeast. At this point Florida is still in the cross hairs but again I'm suspect about a direct hit on the central and northern coast (...just doesn't follow history). So honestly I think there needs to be two cones; one running through south Florida and the other curving and heading towards the SC coast. But that's just my non-meteorological thoughts.... 

[scwxguy]

34 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I'm not sure what to think about the overnight model runs. Late yesterday it was looking like Dorian would maybe hit south Florida and then run right out into the Gulf. That would spare us farther to the north a lot of the affects. But overnight the models have shifted back east some and now show a hit farther up the Florida coast with a curve north and northeast. At this point Florida is still in the cross hairs but again I'm suspect about a direct hit on the central and northern coast (...just doesn't follow history). So honestly I think there needs to be two cones; one running through south Florida and the other curving and heading towards the SC coast. But that's just my non-meteorological thoughts.... 

Me either, other than maybe windshield wiper effect? It's truly a maddening situation. No one here in Charleston is even paying attention to Dorian, completely written off as a Florida thing. If it takes a Matthew like track it is almost a week away from impacts here it looks like which is good. If it were to landfall here less time. 

If most of Florida is going to start evacuating tomorrow (that's a ton of people compared to GA/SC!) where would GA/SC people go if it suddenly came here? All those hotels in GA and even here are filled with FL evacuees. We are even planning to house a friend that is in Orlando if necessary.

At this point I'm just keeping an eye on it as we all are. Hopefully today adds more clarity not confusion. I expect FL officials will call for the evacuation today as well. They have to, running out of time.

[NorthHillsWx]

I said this earlier. If it slows down, it gives more time for it to find a weakness in the ridge. That is exactly what changed overnight. It slowed down a good 18+ hours. Where the western periphery of the ridge sets up is absolutely critical. Also, a slow system + frictional effects with land can end up delaying LF further north as well. We certainly saw this with Matthew. It's only 75-100 miles inland at most on these runs now whereas yesterday many had it going into the gulf. The only good thing about this track is storms that slow and linger on approach to the east coast tend to ingest dry continental air and weaken before LF. It this thing slows to a crawl I would doubt it will come in at peak intensity, especially if it comes north. Obviously that's a sidenote as we saw what Florence (and Matthew) did as a modest 1.