thess Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Wake County schools closed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 I've got a place booked at Edisto Beach Sunday through next week. Really hoping this thing takes that NE turn ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Folks, Link(s) to LIVE WEB CAMS, up & down the Beaches, IF interested in scoping out whats happening.. From Myrtle to OBX/Nags head.. I linked the pier I fish-on in Carolina Beach, (the North End).. http://www.surfchex.com/carolina-beach-web-cam.php 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Johnston Co. Schools closed Thur AND Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 3K NAM holds inland track big winds as well....though these values are probably overdone 10-15 knts....most of eastern NC gusting to hurricane force or better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 One stop shop for everything... Temp, dewpoint, humidity, wind speed and gusts, etc. Dropdown menu is on the left side. https://climate.ncsu.edu/map/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 4 hours ago, thess said: Wake County schools closed tomorrow. What a joke. Next month Wake County Schools close for a breezy fall day! So ridiculous. I can certainly agree when winds are forecast to gust over 50mph for an extended period. But keep in mind folks, there are areas all over this great nation where that's a perfectly normal day! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Thoughts and prayers for OBX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 18Z Euro track 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Be interesting to see what the NHC does with this drop finding 120 mph at the surface.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Looking to intercept.. Got a couple places planned.. CANNOT get onto the "Barrier Islands", (Mandatory evacuation ) though can intercept across the Inlet in two places.. .. grrr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Stay safe everyone Dorian keeps strengthening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Damn, 953. Continues to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Several Mets have been comparing Dorian's track to Matthew and noted the similar proximity to the coast. How fast/slow was Matthew compared to the expected forward speed of Dorian? I was in Rehab at the time after my hospital stay, and really have no memory of the storm as it was going on. What about the inland reach of the rain shield and wind speed.... then vs. now? Comparing tracks is kind of useless without other parameters to use as a gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 This sucks. This absolutely sucks. I grew up in Wilmington (look at my name!) and my family still lives there. The entire place is still on pins and needles from Florence. The LAST thing they need is to be punched by the northern eyewall of a major. Ugh. Yeah, instead of doing the usual core disintegration a la Irene or Matthew or Florence, it's actually STRENGTHENING. It's always a bit scarier to watch these big hurricanes tighten up and gain a second wind; its like watching a 7 foot basketball player dribble a basketball with proficiency. All the classic signs (warmer eye, symmetry, constricting eyewall etc) are there. SSTs say this has about 12 more hours of strengthening before it hits the continental shelf and slides out of the warm gulf stream. Maybe it bottoms out at 949? 950? It's hard to guess these things but it has a little more deepening to do in my opinion. Until then, don't know what happens. It will be a bit harder to bring down, if this is a 125 mph storm by 12z tomorrow, there's a solid chance it stays a major as it zips by. The small saving grace is that it seems like model consensus brings this just a hair offshore, giving land the relatively weaker eyewall. Hopefully for the weary residents of Cape Fear this doesn't sneak onshore. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: This sucks. This absolutely sucks. I grew up in Wilmington (look at my name!) and my family still lives there. The entire place is still on pins and needles from Florence. The LAST thing they need is to be punched by the northern eyewall of a major. Ugh. Yeah, instead of doing the usual core disintegration a la Irene or Matthew or Florence, it's actually STRENGTHENING. It's always a bit scarier to watch these big hurricanes tighten up and gain a second wind; its like watching a 7 foot basketball player dribble a basketball with proficiency. All the classic signs (warmer eye, symmetry, constricting eyewall etc) are there. SSTs say this has about 12 more hours of strengthening before it hits the continental shelf and slides out of the warm gulf stream. Maybe it bottoms out at 949? 950? It's hard to guess these things but it has a little more deepening to do in my opinion. Until then, don't know what happens. It will be a bit harder to bring down, if this is a 125 mph storm by 12z tomorrow, there's a solid chance it stays a major as it zips by. The small saving grace is that it seems like model consensus brings this just a hair offshore, giving land the relatively weaker eyewall. Hopefully for the weary residents of Cape Fear this doesn't sneak onshore. Hope your family stays safe. Is this trajectory the worst case scenario for surge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Local stations here in Charleston surprisingly haven’t even started doing continuous coverage yet for the storm, even though we’re under 12 hours away from most of the immediate metro area potentially getting 80-100 mph wind gusts. Only Channel 5 is even running hourly updates. Figuring this is because of the late-night pass, but there’s been storms before where they started doing almost continuous coverage at least a day out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 IMO it is because the storm has been covered for over a week and is currently several orders of magnitude weaker than it was two days ago. If Dorian had slid across the Bahamas as a Cat 1, strengthened to a Cat 2 as it made the turn up the coast and now was on the cusp of becoming a Major hurricane for the first time as it neared Charleston the storm would be handled much differently by the news organizations. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 If it looks to take the track the NAM just ran which is similar to the Ukie/Euro/ICON etc then this board will be hopping tomorrow as a potential strong Cat 2 or even Cat 3 bears down on MHX and then across the IBX to Nags Head....thats would be a big hit from the Triangle to the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 36 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Hope your family stays safe. Is this trajectory the worst case scenario for surge? Thank you. They'll be good, although you never know which storm is the one to knock that pine tree in your back yard over. Just generally stressed out, it's the little things. My cousin whose a UNCW student had a really hard time finding a place to live this year because Florence constricted the housing market. I had a few friends that had to run go fund mes for various Florence casualties (cars, roofs, etc.) Speaking of roofs, my high school English teacher showed a picture of the patch from Florence he's putting a bigger patch on because he's still on the waiting list for a new roof after Florence. Everything is backlogged. And to think my family had things easy! TBH, I have no idea how surge will react to this oblique landfall angle, I wish I did. Most of the news stations are going with 4-7 feet which seemed like a great forecast 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 As of the 11 PM Advisory, Dorian is projected to still have TS-force winds off the shores of Greenland on Monday. Crazy. And that's after swiping Nova Scotia as a hurricane on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 NHC discussion of the intensity: Dorian could maintain this intensity for about 12 hours or so, but guidance is showing shear increasing, and that should result in gradual weakening. The intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory, keeping Dorian at the border of category 2 or 3 intensity as it moves near the southeast coast of the United States. This forecast is consistent with the intensity models, which unanimously gradually weaken the cyclone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 0z GFS did not follow suit with a more inland pass downeast, but it is alarming that several of the other models show it. Here is an example from the 0z WRF-ARW2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 36 minutes ago, calculus1 said: As of the 11 PM Advisory, Dorian is projected to still have TS-force winds off the shores of Greenland on Monday. Crazy. And that's after swiping Nova Scotia as a hurricane on Saturday. Been focused on NC impacts for obvious reasons, but this Canada impact looks to be no joke. That's a Hurricane making landfall almost directly over Halifax, Nova Scotia, and then directly impacts Newfoundland thereafter. (as a post tropical, but still) I wonder how often Canada issues Hurricane Warnings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 If you guys are weary of canes, move to sunny warm Austin TX. We dont get much rain and we never get canes. We do get plenty of sunshine lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Over the past 3 hours, Myrtle Beach has picked up 3.98" rain. That, alone, exceeds the daily rainfall record of 3.61", which was set in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Tornado Warned Cell right off the coast of Topsail: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Good Morning Folks, woke up around 4AM w/my phone screaming Weather alerts.. Tornado warnings.. Or Waterspouts.. Looks like it's going to be a interesting morning & Day around ILM.. I sincerely believe, watching the course this morning, ILM will brace for Impact.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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