olafminesaw Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 2 hours ago, downeastnc said: NAM 3K says hold on to your hats.....this is gonna be overdone but not sure by how much, if the storm is well organized and large it might not be that far off.... Not entirely unrealistic I don't think, at least near the coast, if it does in fact manage to hug the coast for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Dorian recovering nicely know, storms wrapping center and he has rebuilt his west side quickly... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2019_05L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_11.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 2 hours ago, downeastnc said: NAM 3K says hold on to your hats.....this is gonna be overdone but not sure by how much, if the storm is well organized and large it might not be that far off.... MEH.. If that holds serve.. Well.. I'll be "on the beach" to record it.. @downeastnc & @shaggy Have ya'll been on the great Fishing bite the past couple days? Kings/Spanish/Spots/Blues/SST, & Red Drum are running.. IF this Model comes to pass, It WILL be a *boon* too fish stocks.. (along with other species of fish).. Chance to Spawn.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 NAM 925 MB winds have 50-90 mph winds 1500-2200 ft up over most of central and eastern NC how well these mix down will determine how bad the winds get.....with Matthew and Irene they mixed down very well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 5 hours ago, NCSU_Pi said: And with that, both the parents and in-laws are in Hurricane Warnings. I already know my parents are planning on staying in Shallotte. I need to see what the in-laws are planning in the Porter's Neck area. They're really low, with their back up against a tidal creek off Middle Sound. I'd be more worried about Dorian if Florence hadn't came thru last year. I figured if anything survived Florence, it can handle this one. (in the Shallotte area) My mom's between OIB and Sunset. Her house backs into a creek that empties into the Intercoastal. She's staying with her sister in Little River that's about 3 miles inland that's got some slight elevation, and doesn't have much trees around. (which means I ain't too worried about wind impacts) When this thing clears out, I'm heading down to Mom's Fri night/Sat to help with any cleanup. I don't expect there will be too much because she's got oaks on her property that have been there for years, and survived a few Cat 2's (and Florence) without much damage. But I'll bring the chainsaw just in case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 53 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: I'd be more worried about Dorian if Florence hadn't came thru last year. I figured if anything survived Florence, it can handle this one. (in the Shallotte area) My mom's between OIB and Sunset. Her house backs into a creek that empties into the Intercoastal. She's staying with her sister in Little River that's about 3 miles inland that's got some slight elevation, and doesn't have much trees around. (which means I ain't too worried about wind impacts) When this thing clears out, I'm heading down to Mom's Fri night/Sat to help with any cleanup. I don't expect there will be too much because she's got oaks on her property that have been there for years, and survived a few Cat 2's (and Florence) without much damage. But I'll bring the chainsaw just in case. Yeah, I'm not too worried about them. They're up high enough that not even the Cat 5 storm surge model touches their house. They'll have to deal with power outages and all that, but they'll be fine. They're in good shape, and it's not like they're elderly. I went down after Florence and we rode around Ash and the areas around the Waccamaw. It just became a giant swamp. And the people that live there, for the most part, lacked the means to deal with something like that. It was just tragic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: NAM 925 MB winds have 50-90 mph winds 1500-2200 ft up over most of central and eastern NC how well these mix down will determine how bad the winds get.....with Matthew and Irene they mixed down very well..... Matthew and Irene , I was fishing on our local piers.. AND have video to prove it, (being there).. MEH.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 45 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said: Yeah, I'm not too worried about them. They're up high enough that not even the Cat 5 storm surge model touches their house. They'll have to deal with power outages and all that, but they'll be fine. They're in good shape, and it's not like they're elderly. I went down after Florence and we rode around Ash and the areas around the Waccamaw. It just became a giant swamp. And the people that live there, for the most part, lacked the means to deal with something like that. It was just tragic. Ugh. Well I hope they've learned they're lesson since then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Wow that 00Z Euro run was nasty for NC....direct landfall over Emerald Isle as a solid Cat 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 2 hours ago, downeastnc said: Wow that 00Z Euro run was nasty for NC....direct landfall over Emerald Isle as a solid Cat 2. The 00z ENS also shifted closer to the coast. Image courtesy of weathernerds.org. (free site btw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 6Z Euro back to just offshore its moves more than the other models, the Ukie, Icon, Nam's all agree with the 00Z Euro track...that's the one that will be the worst for NC so we will see if they trend east today any... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 38 minutes ago, downeastnc said: 6Z Euro back to just offshore its moves more than the other models, the Ukie, Icon, Nam's all agree with the 00Z Euro track...that's the one that will be the worst for NC so we will see if they trend east today any... Interesting, the 6z GFS Ensemble had a quite significant shift west and has a landfall across most of extreme eastern NC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 9 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: Ugh. Well I hope they've learned they're lesson since then.. When you live in a dirt floor shack near the river, you don't exactly have a lot of options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 The 3km NAM track through inland NC is rough for a lot of central and eastern NC.....if that ends up being right and the storm can stay organized and a strong Cat 2 this might be one of the worse "wind" hits NC has taken over a large area since Fran, most models already really want to put gust well into strong TS territory all the way to the Triangle...the 3k NAM has hurricane gust to the Triangle and would be lights out for NC from the Triad to the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 20 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The 3km NAM track through inland NC is rough for a lot of central and eastern NC.....if that ends up being right and the storm can stay organized and a strong Cat 2 this might be one of the worse "wind" hits NC has taken over a large area since Fran, most models already really want to put gust well into strong TS territory all the way to the Triangle...the 3k NAM has hurricane gust to the Triangle and would be lights out for NC from the Triad to the coast.... That's two runs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Whatever model(s) wunderground uses calls for a lull on Harkers Island around 7am Friday. That’s got to be the eye, and is around the same time and place the latest NHC forecast places Dorian. Found it interesting, never seen that on this app. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 IR presentation continues to improve with storms wrapping around the center. Would be something if this made a run for a cat 3 landfall. I'm ready here in Jville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Hey guys help me out my geography sucks where exactly is the TRIANGLE or where does it go from ? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Hey guys help me out my geography sucks where exactly is the TRIANGLE or where does it go from ? Thanks Durham, Raleigh, Chapel Hill. Roughly 20 mile sides I suppose. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Hurricane Warning posted for OBX. Just got a notice on my phone. I'm in Kill Devil Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 36 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The 3km NAM track through inland NC is rough for a lot of central and eastern NC.....if that ends up being right and the storm can stay organized and a strong Cat 2 this might be one of the worse "wind" hits NC has taken over a large area since Fran, most models already really want to put gust well into strong TS territory all the way to the Triangle...the 3k NAM has hurricane gust to the Triangle and would be lights out for NC from the Triad to the coast.... The NAM 3km overdoes the intensity with Hurricanes, we all know that... but it has a pretty good record on the tracks of Low Pressure systems. With that being said, it has been consistently showing a more westward track. The center is actually west of Wilmington on the 12z run when it comes on shore. That would definitely increase the impacts to all of Eastern NC especially since the stronger winds are east of the center. The OBX would get spanked on this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 HWRF, HMON, Euro, NAM all are liking something close to an Oak Island landfall. New GFS keeps it offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 ICON ticked east 20 miles still crosses Lookout to Hatteras, GFS is east as well never hitting land and staying a good 20-30 miles off the OBX.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 I'd say the HRRR is doing very well on this since late Sundays runs,moving this NW. then almost due north and well of the coast so far. That HWRF or whatever you call it looks horrible,slamming this into central Florida for almost 3 days.Pitiful just pitiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 The 3k NAM is a bit overdone for inland locations I think. It is overamped and I think a track that far inland is an outlier. Right now, I think the 60-70 mph gusts will be contained to the US 17 corridor and eastward for NC. If anyone sees hurricane gusts, I think it's going to be directly along the coast. The ECMWF may have the track right, but those gusts maps have been 10-20% higher than verification for the majority of areas during recent storms the past couple of years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Wake Co is now under the TS Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, thunderwolf said: The 3k NAM is a bit overdone for inland locations I think. It is overamped and I think a track that far inland is an outlier. Right now, I think the 60-70 mph gusts will be contained to the US 17 corridor and eastward for NC. If anyone sees hurricane gusts, I think it's going to be directly along the coast. The ECMWF may have the track right, but those gusts maps have been 10-20% higher than verification for the majority of areas during recent storms the past couple of years. My TS states 40-50 with gusts to 65. Going to be interesting to see how it approaches the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 UKIE hold the MHX to Pamlico sound to Hatteras track.....pressures in the mid 950's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 30 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Wake Co is now under the TS Warning. Got the alert on my phone from the FEMA app - highly recommended for those who don't have it. You can set alerts for certain types and for multiple locations, great if you have family or friends far away you're concerned about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Hurricane Warning posted for OBX. Just got a notice on my phone. I'm in Kill Devil Hills.My first time in Kill Devil Hills this summer. We stayed right across the street from the Wright Brothers Museum. Great people and great food! We want to make it an annual trip. Be safe. I hope everyone in your area comes through okay. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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