downeastnc Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 GFS back to a NC hit...at least for this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 On 9/1/2019 at 4:27 AM, downeastnc said: GFS back to a NC hit...at least for this run Expand HP seems to be weaker and further North this run, allows it to come closer to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 1, 2019 Author Share Posted September 1, 2019 0z and 6z were the same for the gfs. Too close for comfort. Another 50 miles NW and you have a floyd type track inland. Of course climo says recurve and the other models are offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Dorian a cat 5. 160 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Am I wrong in saying the models keep inching the storm further to the west? I’ll believe the straight north track when it happens. I would not be surprised at all if it makes landfall in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 On 9/1/2019 at 4:27 AM, downeastnc said: GFS back to a NC hit...at least for this run Expand The 0z Canadian and Icon still show landfall in FL. Canadian follows 95 to about Charleston then goes back over water south of MB and Wilmington. I think it's safe to say it's going to curve. But when and where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 This is crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 On 9/1/2019 at 1:46 PM, Solak said: Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches). Expand With gusts over 200 mph ! Strongest hurricane on record this far north in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Josh Morgerman, crazy person, is right in the path on Great Abaco Island. https://twitter.com/iCyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 On 9/1/2019 at 2:02 PM, ragtop50 said: With gusts over 200 mph ! Strongest hurricane on record this far north in the Atlantic Expand Absurd to say the least. I'm amazed it's gone this long without a ewc...wonder what the record for that is too? On 9/1/2019 at 2:04 PM, Cheeznado said: Josh Morgerman, crazy person, is right in the path on Great Abaco Island. https://twitter.com/iCyclone Expand Always liked josh but him tempting fate with storms like this are a real gamble. Is there anyway structures survive 200mph winds...never mind the storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 180mph 913mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 I have some extended stepfamily who lives in Man-O-War near Marsh Harbor in The Bahamas and decided not to evacuate. WTF??? Hope they survive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 On 9/1/2019 at 2:58 PM, Solak said: 180mph 913mb Expand Wow, grim to say the least; hopefully, this means eyewall replacement very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 On 9/1/2019 at 3:00 PM, Moonhowl said: Wow, grim to say the least; hopefully, this means eyewall replacement very soon. Expand There is no signs of a ERC happening anytime soon, the storm is pretty annular so i wouldn't think one would happen in the next 12-24 hrs but you never know.....pressure down to 910 or so once the winds catch up this will be the strongest ATL hurricane ever recorded of there is a plane out to sample it when it peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Check out the core from earlier this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheapdad00 Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 On 9/1/2019 at 2:04 PM, Cheeznado said: Josh Morgerman, crazy person, is right in the path on Great Abaco Island. https://twitter.com/iCyclone Expand Just read his tweets. He has children with him, holed up in Marsh Harbour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 New GFS has shifted right a bit off FL but then it still hits NC, but much weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Bastardi comments specific to Wilmington Area Joe Bastardi just said prepare for wind gusts at least 75 to 100 along NC Coast with 120 to 140 possible in places. Similar to Hurricane Helene in 1958 for Wilmington relative to impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 ICON finally caved to the Euro/GFS with the turn off Fl and movement up the east coast offshore.....then it does this..... 12Z GFS also hits this looks like mid to late Thursday so 4 days from now....starting to think I might get some decent winds here luckily it looks Cat1 weak Cat 2 at worse.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 The models are not digging the second shortwave over the norther plains/great lakes quite as much. In fact, the trend has been that direction for several runs now. It would allow dorian to curve NNE as opposed to NE or ENE. This is obviously significant for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 So far major changes on the Canadian from 0z to 12z. 12z holds Dorian back near the Bahamas(Freeport). Slower, looks poised to do a sharp right turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 185MPH/911MB at 12:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 This storm is incredible. Just. Wow. The statistics are hard to believe.Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Someone from the low country can correct me if I'm wrong but isnt this the worst possible angle for them for storm surge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Canadian model still makes landfall south of Titusville,FL @ 980 mb. Heads north. East of Orlando re emerges off of Palm Coast, Fl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 On 9/1/2019 at 5:12 PM, Queencitywx said: Someone from the low country can correct me if I'm wrong but isnt this the worst possible angle for them for storm surge? Expand Yes, it is especially bad for the Savannah/Beaufort area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 GFS into Morehead City/Havelock.Rain shield further west with 5''into RDU this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 UKMET still offshore barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 It’s basically an EF4 tornado with gusts into EF5, yet is bigger than many states in the country.....unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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