shaggy Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 99L has been designated and is looking very good this morning GFS brings it close but offshore the east coast and the EURO takes it to the keys. It appears this one will be in the threat zone for US impact possibilities. The tropics are awake finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 Some models want to ramp it up pretty quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 23, 2019 Author Share Posted August 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Solak said: Some models want to ramp it up pretty quickly! Based on current organization I could believe it. Bet its cherry red by the end of today. Think 20% over 5 days was way low on probabilities. Did Barry ever look this good lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 23, 2019 Author Share Posted August 23, 2019 As a side note my nephew started coastal Carolina the year Mathew hit. He has had to evacuate every year he has been there. He is a senior this year but ow his sister is a freshman at coastal carolina so we will see if their curse continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 50 minutes ago, shaggy said: As a side note my nephew started coastal Carolina the year Mathew hit. He has had to evacuate every year he has been there. He is a senior this year but ow his sister is a freshman at coastal carolina so we will see if their curse continues. Hmm, I think we found the cause! I'm in Charleston and the evacuation orders and makeup days at work have been pretty annoying. Maybe I could counteract their effects by selling my lousy, little generator and buying something better... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scwxguy Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 My wife was already asking where our "hurrication" is going to be this year. I said don't plan on it. Certainly has been a lot of close calls last few years and people are beginning to expect it as new normal when it is an aberration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 24, 2019 Author Share Posted August 24, 2019 Lots of questions will be raised with overall track with TD5. Gfs basically brings it along the forecast track but kills it. If it's as strong as hurricane center says would that lead to a more northerly solution allowing it to avoid the big islands? Does it stay as weak as the gfs says and either dies or slides further southwest because it's so weak? Might be the first threat of the season from the deep tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 Dorian SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 49.1W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 24, 2019 Author Share Posted August 24, 2019 The talk of possible RI is interesting. Would hate to be a forecaster for the islands right now. If this thing cranks up their not gonna have a ton of time. Stronger sooner mean north of the islands? Could have ramifications down stream for intensity and threat to land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 We are "watching" here in SENC... While very Bad news for P.R.,, If It crosses the Island at whatever Cat #,, It would be quite devastating too SENC & P.R. .. .. (Or any part of the Carolinas/Caribbean ).. Looks to be on Track, for a Anniversary of sorts for the Carolinas.. At least one good thing, It's doesn't have a "F" name.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 damn. didn’t realize shaggy was doing the tropical threads . hope you’ll join in the hardcore thread at the other site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 10 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said: damn. didn’t realize shaggy was doing the tropical threads . hope you’ll join in the hardcore thread at the other site. I’m not quite into hardcore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 I'll read over there but not say much. Honestly I'm staying away from there more this year because watching stuff from too far out gets kind of stressful after a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 looking rather good the last 4-5 hrs...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 25, 2019 Author Share Posted August 25, 2019 Hwrf never gets it sub 1000mb. Models are keeping this thing super weak and right now it's looking very good. Got to be a big headache for the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 There's official forecasts, spaghetti models, and then, there's this nonsense... (A previous tweet, since deleted, compared Dorian to the track of the 1900 Galveston Hurricane) This one isn't much better. Rep. Pete Olson @RepPeteOlson START WATCHING & PLANNING NOW!!!Tropical Storm Dorian has formed with 60mph winds. Hurricane in 4 days. Following similar path as some of our worst hurricanes - Florida Straits & long run over strengthening warm Gulf water. Changes in path HIGHLY likely. @NWSNHC @NWSHouston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scwxguy Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 On 8/25/2019 at 9:24 AM, Ser Pounce said: I'll read over there but not say much. Honestly I'm staying away from there more this year because watching stuff from too far out gets kind of stressful after a while. Yeah, lots of doom forecasting for a very compact, weak storm that has a lot going against it. People assume everything will rapidly intensify to a major hurricane after the last few years. Anything can happen but the current track, interaction with Hispaniola's mountains and dry air don't point to a catastrophic event at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 Bingo, I haven't paid much attention in about 18 hours but it looked exactly like the kind of thing that would get wrecked by Hispaniola and much ado about nothing afterwords. Everything subject to change of course. Maybe people are jumping on it over there because there hasn't been much to do yet this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 0z, 6z, and 12z guidance has kept ever so slightly ticking north.... Currently center will barely clip Hispaniola or split the gap with PR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 it’s definitely the first real threat of the season. home depot employees were moving hurricane supplies to the front of the store this morning when I was there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 I’ll probably be in the cone on the 5pm advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 Spent the weekend with the in-laws and they were convinced a hurricane was approaching NC. I think there is doom-casting (the tweet above) and then also just pure lack of knowledge among many people who do not follow the weather like we do. If they hear about a storm and hear the mention of their state, some people don't listen or just assume it's coming. With the rash of destructive storms the last few years, this may be a side effect. Every storm that forms, people ASSUME the worst now. A cat 1 slamming into Hispanola with plenty of dry and and shear before that is not means to get me overly concerned AT THIS POINT (for SE US impact). As with any tropical system, it needs to be heeded, but anyone predicting any sort of impact at this point is simply spewing. On Dorian- first of all, he is looking progressively better as of this morning. On Water Vapor, the dry air remains apparent, but it seems he has established a CDO and decent outflow, something with the bursts of convection we had not seen to this point. Given his small size, we know that RI is not out of the question. However, here is what I see: 1) small storm very susceptible to intensity swings 2) Good outflow but shear is certainly not too far to the N and W and very much in the forecast path (see above concerningsize) 3) Opportunity for a brief spinup quickly followed by weakening. Very real possibility we see this thing shoot up to a hurricane but weaken markedly before making it to the islands (if this thing gets sheared apart, it will likely drift west south of the islands in the easterlies and never reach there, as we've seen before) 4) IF and I mean IF this does ramp up to a hurricane, very good chance it is a shell of itself post-land interaction. Even if hit hit as a cat 3 (VERY unlikely) due to its small size, it would likely be a depression (Meaning LF intensity doesn't matter as much as if this was a large storm with broader circulation IE more resilient to a LF or interaction) upon entry to the Atlantic Side 5) We have seen time and time again post land interaction these type of storms struggle to get re-organized. Also, though the shear in that area is light at the moment, there is a TON of time for that forecast to change. Everything considered, this is a VERY challenging forecast due to small size, dry air, very sharp pockets of shear, degree of land interaction, and environment post-Hispanola. Certainly bears watching but I would not sound the alarm for any threat to the US east coast at this point. I think, as always, the flooding and impact to Hispanola and Puerto Rico (especially post-Maria) needs to be the main news story. Any storm of any intensity causes destruction to these areas and can cause loss of life. Much to come in the coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Spent the weekend with the in-laws and they were convinced a hurricane was approaching NC. I think there is doom-casting (the tweet above) and then also just pure lack of knowledge among many people who do not follow the weather like we do. If they hear about a storm and hear the mention of their state, some people don't listen or just assume it's coming. With the rash of destructive storms the last few years, this may be a side effect. Every storm that forms, people ASSUME the worst now. A cat 1 slamming into Hispanola with plenty of dry and and shear before that is not means to get me overly concerned AT THIS POINT (for SE US impact). As with any tropical system, it needs to be heeded, but anyone predicting any sort of impact at this point is simply spewing. On Dorian- first of all, he is looking progressively better as of this morning. On Water Vapor, the dry air remains apparent, but it seems he has established a CDO and decent outflow, something with the bursts of convection we had not seen to this point. Given his small size, we know that RI is not out of the question. However, here is what I see: 1) small storm very susceptible to intensity swings 2) Good outflow but shear is certainly not too far to the N and W and very much in the forecast path (see above concerningsize) 3) Opportunity for a brief spinup quickly followed by weakening. Very real possibility we see this thing shoot up to a hurricane but weaken markedly before making it to the islands (if this thing gets sheared apart, it will likely drift west south of the islands in the easterlies and never reach there, as we've seen before) 4) IF and I mean IF this does ramp up to a hurricane, very good chance it is a shell of itself post-land interaction. Even if hit hit as a cat 3 (VERY unlikely) due to its small size, it would likely be a depression (Meaning LF intensity doesn't matter as much as if this was a large storm with broader circulation IE more resilient to a LF or interaction) upon entry to the Atlantic Side 5) We have seen time and time again post land interaction these type of storms struggle to get re-organized. Also, though the shear in that area is light at the moment, there is a TON of time for that forecast to change. Everything considered, this is a VERY challenging forecast due to small size, dry air, very sharp pockets of shear, degree of land interaction, and environment post-Hispanola. Certainly bears watching but I would not sound the alarm for any threat to the US east coast at this point. I think, as always, the flooding and impact to Hispanola and Puerto Rico (especially post-Maria) needs to be the main news story. Any storm of any intensity causes destruction to these areas and can cause loss of life. Much to come in the coming days. Worse case: Irma repeat.. RI outflow blocks the dry air and shear, but splits the gap between DR and PR and enters the Altantic side as a Cat.3 or higher. EXTREMELY unlikely, bjt not out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 26, 2019 Author Share Posted August 26, 2019 I've seen plenty of storms with their plot over Florida and then as it approaches that curves up the coast to threaten my area. Floyd, Mathew a bunch. This time that's going to be much harder as that ridge shuts the door. East coast of Florida ala Jeanne and frances comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 I’m all in. East coast Florida strike on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 Borderline Hurricane.... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt05L.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 5PM update keeps Dorian a high end TS after the islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 12.7N 58.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 13.4N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 14.5N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 15.7N 64.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 17.1N 66.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 20.1N 70.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 23.0N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 25.5N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 27, 2019 Author Share Posted August 27, 2019 Little ticks north in the models. Wouldnt shut Dorian out of our minds here just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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