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New England Convective Discussion


weatherwiz
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2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

We hope! Storm in the distance  now

 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was a nice light show at 4:30 in the NW sky during AM run. Was pretty cool with ear skies and moon out here 

When I was driving into work this morning I was getting onto Rt. 9 from 84 in West Hartford and I saw the flash to the NW. 

Plenty of blue sky...or much more than I thought anyways here in Branford. Satellite doesn't look horrific. 

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45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

When I was driving into work this morning I was getting onto Rt. 9 from 84 in West Hartford and I saw the flash to the NW. 

Plenty of blue sky...or much more than I thought anyways here in Branford. Satellite doesn't look horrific. 

Just gotta clear out these clouds. Doesn't look like it will be a problem.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

the mesos have been pretty horrific the past week with convection...not just here in the Northeast either. So much inconsistency...anyways I think there is room today to get some discrete cells going. CT could actually be a hot spot today

They sure have. Every single one of them. 

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The forcing though is more in those areas I mentioned. Not sure much survives SE of ORH-BDL. Maybe a renegade cell or two? Perhaps evening has a chance. 

It is complex indeed. I agree with you regarding the forcing. I keep debating this in one in my head, but I can see two things;

1) The lack of the strongest forcing could help with discrete cell development here

2) The forcing is just too weak...but with enough buoyancy we get development but it struggles to grow vertically. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It is complex indeed. I agree with you regarding the forcing. I keep debating this in one in my head, but I can see two things;

1) The lack of the strongest forcing could help with discrete cell development here

2) The forcing is just too weak...but with enough buoyancy we get development but it struggles to grow vertically. 

I mean yeah if a line formed I suppose it wouldn't be a shock. Just seems like the gravy train is NW for awhile. Eventually something will form and move east, just unsure how much survives. S/W timing does look to help.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I mean yeah if a line formed I suppose it wouldn't be a shock. Just seems like the gravy train is NW for awhile. Eventually something will form and move east, just unsure how much survives. S/W timing does look to help.

I'm almost starting to wonder if tomorrow may actually offer the best potential :lol: 

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Warm frontal structure was analyzed by WPC extending west-east thru N. PA to Cape Cod around 6:30 this morning.. It appears slated to evolve N thru the region during the remainder of the morning. Not sure what the timing is... but it may wait until the +pressure perturbation associated with day-time heating in the BL/warm sector to give it the nudge north to southern VT/NH during the afternoon..    

If you're in central new england...you are still hundreds of miles from that boundary and probably cold butt banged...  If you are S of rt 2 ... you might get in... If you are S of the Pike you probably have a good shot at tainted heating with elevated dew points... 

One thing ... any time we have warm fronts in that configuration attempting to wobble N through the area... there is elevated torsional shear values ... I'm curious what the spinner prospects might be... ? 

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