radarman Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said: Has anyone really excelled at it this year? Thinking the March Alabama/Georgia outbreak and that one busy week in the plains back in the spring are the winners so far for 2019.... North Texas was nutso this spring, granted with no very strong tornadoes. Typical Nino conditions really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 48 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: banger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Here is one example of some significant damage i came across near the border of Longmeadow and Springfield MA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 5 hours ago, dendrite said: Man do we suck at severe. SNH/CNE is alright in August. At least historically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 6 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: SNH/CNE is alright in August. At least historically? It was more in response to Wiz losing his shit over a shelf cloud, but yeah...we have our moments. Yesterday wasn’t too bad. That was some big hail and nice wind damage posted here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 30 minutes ago, dendrite said: It was more in response to Wiz losing his shit over a shelf cloud, but yeah...we have our moments. Yesterday wasn’t too bad. That was some big hail and nice wind damage posted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 If we can get the front to slow on Thursday, could be a busy day. It's a tight call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: You need to get out to the midwest one spring. Our good days are their bad days. But yeah, it’s all good. Heck, I was weenieing out over rain the other night. Those were def some nice shelf pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: 80 degree river water will do that after a summer like this. Great video Lol the river water is far from being 80 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: You need to get out to the midwest one spring. Our good days are their bad days. But yeah, it’s all good. Heck, I was weenieing out over rain the other night. Those were def some nice shelf pics. I think I should be in excellent position to get out west within the next few years. I think come 2021 I will be eligible for two weeks of vacation and by that point I'll have a few big bills paid off so I can put aside a decent amount of money. I've even thought about holding off until later in the summer...everyone gets so pumped for the spring and you get all the chaser convergence but August can offer up some pretty awesome severe chances out that way...this time of year can be rather underrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If we can get the front to slow on Thursday, could be a busy day. It's a tight call. The NAM looks solid out your way. Another chapter to James book coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 I like this description for tomorrow from SPC/Convective Outlook source... "...Northeastern states... Heating will lead to numerous thunderstorms across the moist sector by 18Z over much of NY and northeast PA, expanding across New England during the afternoon. Around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear and 100-150 m2/s2 effective SRH will be sufficient to sustain severe storms, including isolated supercells capable of marginal hail, a brief/weak tornado, or damaging wind. Due to the expected large number of storms, mergers are likely, and a few line segments may form as well. Storms may persist well into the evening and overnight into northern New England when the stronger height falls occur...." I've come to find that things tend to work out better for New England when the region is initially on the eastern manifold of these hashing's... Things just have a tendency to accelerate toward the coast and "sweet" instability away once triggered... but, tomorrow would tend to compensate for that effect as the axis of deeper layer forcing and destablization "waits" until a bit later in the day... The upshot is more time in heating... Looking at the synoptic evolution then going forward into the evening and the overnight ... there are steady albeit slow height falling in associated with the Ontario trough amplitude pressing over top ... I wouldn't be shocked if after initial wave of convection ...there are those training nocturnal back-building storms in the area... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 The NAM is a legit tornado threat tomorrow. Not sure how big the window is...might be small...it's also a highly complex set-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The NAM is a legit tornado threat tomorrow. Not sure how big the window is...might be small...it's also a highly complex set-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 ORH county NE into southern NH may be in a maximized zone for tornado potential tomorrow...obviously assuming the NAM is handling things correctly. This is what I' thinking... If we are able to see 2000-2500 MLCAPE...it will be a pretty big event. I want to see bufkit soundings and see what is has for 0-3km CAPE but if we can get around 125-150...that will be pretty eye opening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Really about as as good as it gets around here. One downside is above 1km winds are mainly unidirectional so any tornado potential will be confined to discrete cells...and the window for these may be small. Anyways, we could see a few wet microbusts tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 storm motion actually looks like it might be with the flow too so that could decrease tornado potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Will this be a deal where we want to see as much sun as we can early in the day to maximize potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: Will this be a deal where we want to see as much sun as we can early in the day to maximize potential? yes, I think so. I think our best window is early on...so we're going to want to start with sun...I don't think we need a ton of sunshine so we don't need sunny skies...but we want to get MLCAPE over 2000 and 3km CAPE over 125 J...and maybe we could get away with closer to 100 J of 0-3km CAPE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: 80 degree river water will do that after a summer like this. Great video Where are you seeing water temps for the Connecticut River at Rocky Hill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 15 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: SNH/CNE is alright in August. At least historically? Strongest TS to hit within 10 miles my place was on August 30, 2007. No spinners but hail defoliated much of 7,000 acres of forest, partially debarking some, and damaged roofs, windows and siding on houses in Rome village. There were still sizable piles of runoff-gathered hail 24 hours after the storm. (6-8 miles NW, we had a moderate TS with zero hail - the usual.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 2 hours ago, MetHerb said: Where are you seeing water temps for the Connecticut River at Rocky Hill? Not Rocky Hill, but it’s all close to the same temps. River temps are low 80’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Snicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not Rocky Hill, but it’s all close to the same temps. River temps are low 80’s Yes you were right,lots of near 80 on the guages but its has zero effect on waterspouts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Let's hope tomorrow will provide plenty of excitement and damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Let's hope tomorrow will provide plenty of excitement and damage. Going to be a tight window but it could be pretty widespread...even despite the weak mid-level lapse rates. Not to beat the bat with the dead horse, but if we are able to get 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE...I think that's the magic value. Where's @OceanStWx been???????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Going to be a tight window but it could be pretty widespread...even despite the weak mid-level lapse rates. Not to beat the bat with the dead horse, but if we are able to get 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE...I think that's the magic value. Where's @OceanStWx been???????????? I think he's out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Going to be a tight window but it could be pretty widespread...even despite the weak mid-level lapse rates. Not to beat the bat with the dead horse, but if we are able to get 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE...I think that's the magic value. Where's @OceanStWx been???????????? 4 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: I think he's out west Where Paul should go visit for Severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Going to be a tight window but it could be pretty widespread...even despite the weak mid-level lapse rates. Not to beat the bat with the dead horse, but if we are able to get 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE...I think that's the magic value. Where's @OceanStWx been???????????? Imagine 12-15 Tors on the ground at same time in SNE tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Imagine 12-15 Tors on the ground at same time in SNE tomorrow TORs for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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