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New England Convective Discussion


weatherwiz
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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I watched that tower blow up just to my East in Foster,  watch that one Jay

Taking a look at it... Not sure how to feel about it yet. That one dominant cell near hartford has my eye, as everything should gradually lift NE in terms of storm motion. The cells over RI appear to be more of a threat to metrowest and SE NH. Certainly a spin up threat if they strengthen. We'll see. I'm just hoping for a good show. Nothing severe or crazy.

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  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 609
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   150 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Connecticut
     Massachusetts
     Far southern Maine
     Southern New Hampshire
     Northern New Jersey
     Southeast New York
     Rhode Island
     Southern Vermont
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM
     until 900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify particularly
   across far eastern New York and southern New England, near and south
   of a warm front that will continue to spread slowly northward. Some
   supercells with a hail/tornado risk aside from damaging winds are
   most probable across southern New England, with damaging winds
   otherwise expected with the strongest storms.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
   statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest
   of Poughkeepsie NY to 40 miles east of Boston MA. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   24025.

   ...Guyer
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There is something about today which is different from similar setups. Typically in these sort of setups our best shear happens to be during the morning and then weakening through the afternoon. While our mlvl shear is near maximum, the llvl jet should continue to increase a bit more through the afternoon. Behind this CT stuff there is ample clearing so...

Looking over PA and even NW NJ CU initiating and convection forming. Models insist that we recover pretty quickly and should keep MLCAPE high...I think we see scattered severe t'storms between 5-10 PM. 

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