dryslot Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: It certainly doesn't have the look or feel of a severe day right now, but we'll see what happens once the showers clear out later. Yeah, It doesn't ATT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Lots of low clouds in the valley so far this morning. Still looks like breaks to the SW though. Definitely a Charmin kinda morning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 60.8/60 Light rain .08" Cool and dark morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 32 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Area of showers and storms to my southwest, look to impact the Cape and Islands by midday, could become severe ass dew points are in the 70s here already. We have mostly sunny skies. severe ass indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 The amazingly warm water temperatures near the region will allow another hurricane or severe weather event to occur before the fall arrives. It is not a good thing to have this high of a reservoir of warmth and incredible energy present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2019 Author Share Posted August 21, 2019 The HRRR continues to be all over. Anyways some notes... The 12z OKX sounding was pretty damn impressive looking IMO. Looking at BUF/PIT soundings there are the hints of the strengthening mlvl flow too. Satellite/radar is a little on the concerning side with a line of activity developing across PA/SE NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 68/63, Not exactly swampy, Going to need some heating if we want to make things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Watch the Cape pull another Tor this morning with that stuff moving onshore shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Watch the Cape pull another Tor this morning with that stuff moving onshore shortly This water temperature pocket in the region is allowing the energy needed to sustain and create this extreme weather event. If we don't get a tropical cyclone to properly cool the water, we will have a slow winter to start on the Cape. Again we don't big winters anyways. However, if the energy remains big nor'easters will dump heavy snow on RI to Worcester and points west to Hartford and Springfield, but the I95 corridor south and east will see mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 27 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The amazingly warm water temperatures near the region will allow another hurricane or severe weather event to occur before the fall arrives. It is not a good thing to have this high of a reservoir of warmth and incredible energy present. Cough cough *upwelling* cough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The HRRR continues to be all over. Anyways some notes... The 12z OKX sounding was pretty damn impressive looking IMO. Looking at BUF/PIT soundings there are the hints of the strengthening mlvl flow too. Satellite/radar is a little on the concerning side with a line of activity developing across PA/SE NY. Gonna be tough to realize high instability with all these low clouds hanging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2019 Author Share Posted August 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: Gonna be tough to realize high instability with all these low clouds hanging around. Yeah it is. the OKX sounding forecasts right around 2000 J MLCAPE later on...which would be pretty significant. SPC mentions 1000-1500...I think if it became apparent 2000 was going to realize over a large area we would see an enhanced risk (for damaging wind...maybe hail) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 We had a quick shower move through off the ocean & cleared things out a bit. Not very humid though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2019 Author Share Posted August 21, 2019 There is a some drier air pushing east in the mlvls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Suns out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 63/62 light rain .13" Maybe someone can explain how NNE is in a slight risk today? Warm front still south of me. Bit of clearing in VT before that convective line comes through. No real clearing behind it. I don't see any real warming/clearing so everything looks to be south of around Manchester NH today. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like western New England to VT and NH today. next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 63/62 light rain .13" Maybe someone can explain how NNE is in a slight risk today? Warm front still south of me. Bit of clearing in VT before that convective line comes through. No real clearing behind it. I don't see any real warming/clearing so everything looks to be south of around Manchester NH today. Am I missing something? Warm front is crawling north. 72/68 at MHT now but 62/61 and 0.14” rain here. Here northward may be screwed though. You always have to be pessimistic about wet warm fropas up here. The wedges hold strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 hour ago, dryslot said: 68/63, Not exactly swampy, Going to need some heating if we want to make things interesting. That first bunch seems to be weakening as it hits the Maine mank. It stays south of me but might wet the ground in LEW. 2nd area now in ENY looks more promising, though it wouldn't surprise me to see its southerly "tail" disappear so the rest slides by to the north - kinda like Monday. We do fine with stratiform, generally terrible with convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Warm front is crawling north. 72/68 at MHT now but 62/61 and 0.14” rain here. Here northward may be screwed though. You always have to be pessimistic about wet warm fropas up here. The wedges hold strong. Seems like winter when the warm air gets to about the famous Canterbury rest area and stalls. Will be interesting to see if it can punch through. Congrats SNE although unlike a 12" snow storm, severe thunderstorms cause real damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Still some pretty heavy overcast in Franklin County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Latest NWS discussion at 10:30am for Boston seems fairly gung ho for this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Suns out Guns out? Congrats James and Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 STWatches coming in a few hours https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1825.html Mesoscale Discussion 1825 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Areas affected...Northern Mid Atlantic Coast region through southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211531Z - 211730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and, perhaps, an isolated tornado or two, appear increasingly possible by 2-4 PM EDT. This could require the issuance of one or two severe weather watches. DISCUSSION...Convective development appears to be undergoing at least some gradual intensification, within a narrow band now overspreading the Champlain and Hudson Valleys, and as far south as northern New Jersey. This appears to be occurring on the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent associated with a remnant convectively generated or enhanced perturbation, which is forecast to progress into and through western and northern New England by mid to late afternoon. This may be trailed to the southwest by another area of mid-level forcing for ascent spreading northeastward across the northern Mid Atlantic Coast region into southern New England. Based on latest observational data, seasonably moist boundary layer air may mostly remain confined to the south of a weak surface front, reinforced by rain-cooled air associated with weakening convection preceding the main ongoing band. This extends roughly from the leading edge of the convective band across northern Massachusetts, though this boundary could shift northward some into and through the afternoon. To the south of the front, insolation during the next few hours is expected to contribute to moderate mixed-layer CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, coincident with strengthening of west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer. This may contribute to an environment increasingly conducive to organized convection by 18-20Z, which could include further intensification of the ongoing line and perhaps additional discrete storms, with supercell structures possible. Although low-level hodographs may be somewhat modest in size, a tornado or two might not be out of the question, mainly near the surface boundary across southern New England. Otherwise, strongest storms probably will pose a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 08/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 TOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: TOR Lol no. SPC wont go TOR for one or two tornadoes as it stated in the MCD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2019 Author Share Posted August 21, 2019 Does anyone remember what the colors of the MCD indicate again? Forgot what Chris said. Blue = svr red = tor purple = could be either orange ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2019 Author Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Lol no. SPC wont go TOR for one or two tornadoes as it stated in the MCD Well it’s not really SPc call...local offices get final say or a big say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Does anyone remember what the colors of the MCD indicate again? Forgot what Chris said. Blue = svr red = tor purple = could be either orange ? I think that's right. Orange has been more severe as far as I have seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2019 Author Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: I think that's right. Orange has been more severe as far as I have seen Maybe orange had to do with potential for significant gusts? I wonder if there is a documentation somewhere lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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