weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 I'm sure this is somewhere within the August 2019 discussion thread but I don't feel like reading through all of the temp and dewpoint crap and about how people who live in forests try to use their weather to quantify a regime and how people on tarmacs try to quantify their weather as a regime so here it goes... The next few days offers up several opportunities for convection and like we saw this weekend the meso-models (or CAMS) are going to have a very difficult time grasping the evolution of convection. Today: Moderate (to even borderline extreme) instability in place thanks to very high dewpoints, rather warm sfc temps, and modest mid-level lapse rates. Shear isn't overly strong (but a modest MLJ of 40-50 knots) punching into the region will help create bulk shear values supportive for organized convection. The verdict: Scattered severe t'storms today which will produce localized areas of wind damage. Transient supercells may also produce some large hail with low risk for a tornado up in ME. Tuesday: Weak shortwave approaching, high humidity, and low CIN will result in scattered t'storms developing during the afternoon with isolated svr potential Wednesday: Wednesday is a bit more intriguing with strong front/shortwave energy approaching, and decent wind shear/instability. Could see scattered severe weather with all severe hazards possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 High humidity tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2019 Author Share Posted August 19, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: High humidity tomorrow? oops...I had the wrong hour up on the screen. What I meant to say for Tuesday was a chance for t'storms overnight as humidity begins to increase again and the llv jet strengthens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Was just looking at Wednesday. Lots of CAPE, decent hodos, SRH, LCLs, surface low in a decent position. Lapse rates are kinda meh, but what's new there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2019 Author Share Posted August 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Was just looking at Wednesday. Lots of CAPE, decent hodos, SRH, LCLs, surface low in a decent position. Lapse rates are kinda meh, but what's new there? If everything can align Wednesday could be a decent severe weather day. the lapse rates suck but dews well into the 70's could compensate a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 What about today? SPC has a slight hashing over the region - ... I see a lot of heat and rich theta-e but beyond those implications to SBCAPE I don't know, just mentioning - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Interesting setup today. Taking a look at guidance and mesoanal as we speak. Mesoanal is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Looks like a slam dunk severe watch right to most of the entire region... Just had a chance to look over everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 37 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Looks like a slam dunk severe watch right to most of the entire region... Just had a chance to look over everything. Good call ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Thunder has started in Belchertown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 I still wouldn't rule out Thu. Though as the SPC pointed out the timing may be a bit off for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 That storm on CT /MA border is already severe with wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That storm on CT /MA border is already severe with wind I can see that sucker from way down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That storm on CT /MA border is already severe with wind I think you're going to get a good one. Looks to be great timing for C SNE to E SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Can see those towers erupting along the Metacomet Ridge from here in eastern Worc. Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Love the sneaky severe days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I think you're going to get a good one. Looks to be great timing for C SNE to E SNE Not sure. If that’s the line, it’s way ahead of schedule and way east of Mesos. Unless that’s just a few renegade cells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not sure. If that’s the line, it’s way ahead of schedule and way east of Mesos. Unless that’s just a few renegade cells NAM looked like outflow pushes ahead and bursts something near you. But definitely ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: NAM looked like outflow pushes ahead and bursts something near you. But definitely ahead of schedule. Sea breeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Modfan said: Sea breeze? There is a cu field pushing north over CT that might enhance something, but I don't think seabreeze is playing a major factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Hail at work in ludlow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Six flags ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Hopefully all six flags were blown down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 We Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Getting wrecked in Belchertown. More like a tropical storm. Big winds and booms - grill got blown over, several big branches/limbs down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 600 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeastern Connecticut Much of Massachusetts Extreme southern Maine Southeastern New Hampshire Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will form and spread eastward through the afternoon in advance of a surface cold front. The storm environment ahead of the front will favor multicell clusters capable of producing damaging winds and marginally severe hail through the afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Portland ME to 25 miles southeast of Windsor Locks CT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Look out east of Springfield. That thing is all alone. Has supercell look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: Look out east of Springfield. That thing is all alone. Has supercell look to it. Winds are wild. We never get big gusts here but it has them even on the northern edge of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 What a storm near Springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 It is thundering here in Somers. Very dark skies just to the north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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