snowlover2 Posted August 18, 2019 Share Posted August 18, 2019 The new day 3 disco is short but with strong wording calling for a MCS with possible destructive winds because of extreme instability and also saying upgrades being likely in later outlooks. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 18, 2019 Share Posted August 18, 2019 Yeah we'll see. 3km NAM doesn't really have anything. Environment definitely looks volatile though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted August 18, 2019 Share Posted August 18, 2019 12 hours ago, snowlover2 said: The new day 3 disco is short but with strong wording calling for a MCS with possible destructive winds because of extreme instability and also saying upgrades being likely in later outlooks. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html They can’t even get today right let alone day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 NAM more bullish now on 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Looks like an overzealous outlook. The main threat will be across IA into W IL later tonight into early tomorrow morning, before a weakening MCS spreads east from there. There's high agreement for that scenario as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 The SPC has given out an enhanced risk. They explain this as mainly an 06z - 12z threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Here's the image for the 20th. 30% SIG hail and Wind. A number of the models have this derecho looking line falling apart as it gets into central IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 601 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and central Iowa Far southwest Minnesota Far southeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1155 PM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple elevated supercells will likely develop through the early morning hours before growing upscale into a linear cluster that may eventually bow across central to south-central Iowa. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east of Lamoni IA to 15 miles west northwest of Worthington MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0601.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Line looking pretty good for now, especially the central IL portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Line looking pretty good for now, especially the central IL portion. Yeah, we'll have to see if it maintains or increases its momentum as it enters IN. Pretty juicy here at 84/74. Also concerned about the line entering LaCrosse CWA now for Chi- town and NW IN later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 That dang thing looks beefy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 A few counties in NW IN just added to current watch. That seems pretty telling that it's not going as far south as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 New day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Looks like an overzealous outlook. The main threat will be across IA into W IL later tonight into early tomorrow morning, before a weakening MCS spreads east from there. There's high agreement for that scenario as well.As expected...The SPC holding on to the ENH with the new D1 is lolz. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 SOURCE...ASOS OBSERVATION. AT 243 PM, A 73 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT THE INDIANAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 27 minutes ago, Indystorm said: SOURCE...ASOS OBSERVATION. AT 243 PM, A 73 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT THE INDIANAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. I saw that. It looks like the leading edge is right over your head, although from velocities on radar, it looks like I-70 and south is getting raked with winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I saw that. It looks like the leading edge is right over your head, although from velocities on radar, it looks like I-70 and south is getting raked with winds. Yes. the heavier part of the storm was to the south of me with southern Hancock being affected. I had some good winds with the gust front several minutes prior to the rain here IMBY but lucked out on the svr. Lots of tree and power line damage reports coming in from Indy metro west to the state line though. Had to phone IND NWS prior to the storm arrival though because NWS warning polygons were not appearing on their radar site. Got it corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 On 8/20/2019 at 11:40 AM, Chicago Storm said: As expected... The SPC holding on to the ENH with the new D1 is lolz. . I'd say there's been far worse "misses" than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 23 hours ago, Hoosier said: I'd say there's been far worse "misses" than this. Looks like the ENH was nailed if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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