Looking Ahead to Fall and Winter

[Met1985]

14 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

MJO weakening and entering the COD right on time (Dec.18th-Dec.22nd)and entering the relaxing/warming period .Everything looks on schedule to me.

Still think the MJO reemerges around Dec.26th-Jan.1st ,getting a short/weak rotation so far only a 4 day event with kp4 levels and solar wind/EEP only cracking 550km/s nothing to stall it  or loop it in my opinion.GLAMM and torque should respond as the forcing moves back equatorially.

It might sneak into p6 but this should enter p7 rapidly and keep moving(p8 p1) till around Jan.14th when the next rotation begins.Then we get another relaxing/warmer period(5-7 days) around and after then.

Just my opinion.

 

Great stuff. Keep it up. 

[NC_hailstorm]

Pretty sure I see the culprit on why these MJO forecasts are trying to stall/loop/Maritime.

There's now a forecast of kp3(elevated solar wind/EEP) for 12/25 12/26 and 12/27 that was NOT there three days ago.Any extra solar wind/EEP will try to stall and loop the MJO into Maritime,and given the 4-8 day lag that's why its trying to loop it around Jan 1st-5th.

Depending how strong this is will determine whether or not we get a cold first half of January in my opinion,anything over 500km/s for 3 days won't be good either.Seeing as a relaxing period is coming Jan14th- Jan.18th anyway because of the regular rotation it will be Jan.22nd -Jan.26th before the MJO reemerges.

Just my opinion.

[NC_hailstorm]

MJO re emerging today right on time (Dec.26th-Jan 1)

MJO forecasts are slowly correcting,moving this into p7,p8 and possibly p1,this latest kp3 solar wind shouldn't be enough to get a full transfer to the Maritime in my opinion.Only cracking 400km/s so far,low solar/EEP +GLAMM don't equal Maritime forcing.

MJO will stall weaken/stall or get pulled to Maritime around Jan14-Jan 18th though when the next rotation begins,get another relaxing/warming period then or a bit afterwards.

Just my opinion.

[mackerel_sky]

28 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

MJO re emerging today right on time (Dec.26th-Jan 1)

MJO forecasts are slowly correcting,moving this into p7,p8 and possibly p1,this latest kp3 solar wind shouldn't be enough to get a full transfer to the Maritime in my opinion.Only cracking 400km/s so far,low solar/EEP +GLAMM don't equal Maritime forcing.

MJO will stall weaken/stall or get pulled to Maritime around Jan14-Jan 18th though when the next rotation begins,get another relaxing/warming period then or a bit afterwards.

Just my opinion.

I like our chances at a winter storm between the 4-10th of January 

[Cold Rain]

Man, those solar winds must be really smokin'.  Going to from things looking ok to unending record warmth possibilities.  I have to say, it's not looking good.

[NC_hailstorm]

Basically here's what going on(in my opinion)

-Notice the lack of any MJO through the Maritime over the last 90-100 days.Low solar/EEPusually equal less Maritime forcing in general.Now you add extremely low solar wind/EEP over 100 days and you get an undisturbed/boiling Maritime.Nobody including me was paying any attention to that too much and this was all solar forced/induced with low solar wind over 3 months.

-The best example i can give is throwing a match at the end of a gas leak with a vehicle at the other end about 100  feet,that vehicle will explode in a couple seconds.Same thing going on here the MJO gets close to the warming gets pulled rapidly,way ahead of schedule to the Maritime and explodes.Just file that away for later,use what you learned and be prepared next time.

_MJO should still come out Jan 22nd-26th after the rotation around Jan 14th.Whether or not we get strong one to p8 p1 and p2  remains to be seen that feature in the Maritime looks potent and might get another repeat of this last MJO cycle so we'll see.

Just my opinion.

 

[NC_hailstorm]

On 1/3/2020 at 4:38 PM, Cold Rain said:

Man, those solar winds must be really smokin'.  Going to from things looking ok to unending record warmth possibilities.  I have to say, it's not looking good.

No need to be a smartass dude with your snarky remarks.

Why don't you move along son and let some of us observe and research things while you stare out your window and pray for snow.

[Cold Rain]

19 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

No need to be a smartass dude with your snarky remarks.

Why don't you move along son and let some of us observe and research things while you stare out your window and pray for snow.

Not at all.  I don't understand the solar stuff or really know where to follow it.  I just assumed based on your last post about the potential for solar winds increasing, that must have happened since the MJO was going to spend a lot of time in the bad phases.  It is really looking bad right now in terms of the mjo progression and unending warmth.  Not a shot at you at all.  Just a reflection of me not understanding how the solar stuff really ties in and sad that it looks like it isn't going to help as much as it initially appeared.  I've said many times (as have others) how we appreciate your posts and wish you'd post more about this stuff.  Even have asked questions, but you hardly ever respond.

[Cold Rain]

At the risk of being ICBM'd, how are the solar winds looking?  It looks like a colder pattern is starting to show up in the LR.  I am assuming that the solar winds are slowing down?