Orangeburgwx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 It’s sad we can’t get that look in January! I also love that at the end of the loop, there is absolutely no WAR at all!! Here have this weather porn from the 0z GFS... (Oct. 29th and Nov. 1st)Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 20, 2019 Author Share Posted October 20, 2019 On 10/19/2019 at 1:18 AM, Orangeburgwx said: Here have this weather porn from the 0z GFS... (Oct. 29th and Nov. 1st) Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Come now, you know Mother Nature can't compete with those kinds of unrealistic fantasy images! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Just now, Iceagewhereartthou said: Come now, you know Mother Nature can't compete with those kinds of unrealistic fantasy images! Nope, just look at latest runs! It’s going to be Hallowarm or Hotoween! The cold look is gone and SE ridge is back! Welcome to winter! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Just hoping the warm holds through November and flips in early December. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 My opinion is the MJO will keep moving till sometime around Nov.2nd-Nov.7th and then weaken or move to the Maritime.It should re emerge sometime around Nov.11th-Nov.16th meaning the first half of November might be warmer so we'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Cooler trend for November east of the Rockies on the latest runs of the CFS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 3 hours ago, griteater said: Cooler trend for November east of the Rockies on the latest runs of the CFS Griteater, i have paid Attention to you for a while now and you seem to be very astute with your weather knowledge. When will you post your winter outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 13 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: Griteater, i have paid Attention to you for a while now and you seem to be very astute with your weather knowledge. When will you post your winter outlook? Appreciate it Mr. Kevin, thank you. I plan to have an outlook by the end of next week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 When you do your outlook, try to include the positives and negatives going into winter if you dont mind. Hopefully its colder than last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 MJO moving into Maritime right on time(Nov.2nd-Nov 7th)with a slight stall forecasted.Still think it emerges sometime Nov.11th-Nov.16th I'm leaning closer to Nov.11th into the Western Pacific/West.Hem.Warm spell looks brief though this week. When it does come out it should keep moving till around Nov.28-Dec.4th when the next sun/solar wind rotation occurs.Could be a cold month id it's in phase 7,8,1,and 2. Just my opinion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 I saw a coating of snow on the ground in some areas high in the Great Smoky Mountains this weekend where I was hiking. Mostly on northerly facing slopes above 5,000-6,000 ft., it seemed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 My thoughts on the upcoming winter - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52692-griteaters-winter-outlook-19-20/ 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 46 minutes ago, griteater said: My thoughts on the upcoming winter - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52692-griteaters-winter-outlook-19-20/ Great read, and I like you ideas!!! And I'll take a TORCON of (7) going into winter! lol................................. Thanks as I always look forward to reading your work!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 MJO re emerging in the W.Pacific right on time(Nov.11-16th)with a big Arctic front entering the eastern US.Still think it keeps moving till around Nov.28th-Dec.4th into phase7,8,1,2 but as low as the solar wind has been this cycle I'd lean closer to early December but we'll see. MJO should stall,weaken.or move to Maritime around Nov.28th-Dec.4th.There may be a relaxing of the pattern around and a bit after then then but the MJO should re emerge around Dec.6th-Dec.12th.December can be tricky if we get unexpected solar wind flareups like last year which in my opinion locked up the MJO in a warm phase longer than expected. Also I'm watching the QBO closely,if that flips let's just say watch out. Just my opinion. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said: MJO re emerging in the W.Pacific right on time(Nov.11-16th)with a big Arctic front entering the eastern US.Still think it keeps moving till around Nov.28th-Dec.4th into phase7,8,1,2 but as low as the solar wind has been this cycle I'd lean closer to early December but we'll see. MJO should stall,weaken.or move to Maritime around Nov.28th-Dec.4th.There may be a relaxing of the pattern around and a bit after then then but the MJO should re emerge around Dec.6th-Dec.12th.December can be tricky if we get unexpected solar wind flareups like last year which in my opinion locked up the MJO in a warm phase longer than expected. Also I'm watching the QBO closely,if that flips let's just say watch out. Just my opinion. Can you do please do these updates at least 4 times per week? Thanks!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 On 11/10/2019 at 8:13 AM, BIG FROSTY said: Great read, and I like you ideas!!! And I'll take a TORCON of (7) going into winter! lol................................. Thanks as I always look forward to reading your work!!! TORCON 7 winter incoming, I like it Big Frost! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Glimmers of hope and promising signs abound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 MJO weakening and crawling in the COD(Nov.28th-Dec.4th),right on time to me.No full pull to the Maritime because in my opinion the solar wind /CME rotation running real low. this cycle.Pattern relaxing as expected as i see a 594dm death ridge parked over S.Florida and most of the Gulf of Mexico this morning.Lag times have been real short with this cycle,almost cut in half so it might try to sneak out earlier than expected(Dec.6th-Dec-12th)so we'll see. It should come out and move till around Dec.26th,-Jan.1st but if the lag times continue to shorten everything gets moved up(Dec.22nd-Dec.28th).My opinion is the whole solar wind field has been extremely low since about Oct.10th and the CME rotations have been much weaker. Dec.8th could be pivotal as a CME is forecasted to arrive.this could lock up the MJO if its strong and lasts a few days. Just my opinion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Lot of these experts or so called experts like using and looking at Global Angular Momentum( GLAMM),Mountain torque(MT),and Global Wind Oscilation(GWO).These are all fine to use but in my opinion the solar wind/EEP/CME/sun rotation drive all these ultimately.Most people don't even know what these are so Ill try. -GLAMM is a measure of the turning force of the winds and it oscialltes up and down.When its high its called +GLAMM when low its called -GLAMM. - Torques make up significant parts of the momentum as well. They are large drivers in tendency in angular momentum helping to remove or add winds to the atmosphere. - Rising GLAAM is better for promoting a disrupted flow pattern which is supportive of higher latitude blocking in winter..Blocking is more likely during El Nino (+GLAAM) .Seasonlly dependent though -GLAMM in summer promtes blocking. - Tropical forcing is very significant as this is a major driver in global momentum. (MJO) Low solar wind/EEP pushes the Hadley cells Equatorially(+GLAMM into the MJO) High solar wind/EEP pushes the Hadley cells to the Polar regions(-GLAMM weakens the MJO) Anyone notice the GWO and GLAMM completely dropped out at the beginning of September and the MJO completely locked up?Isn't a coincidence the solar wind/EEP roared to life then hitting 872km/s .The next rotation hit in late September and kept it knocked down. Anyone notice it shoot straight upwards around Oct,10th and still high now?Isn't it another coincidence the solar wind/EEP dropped out below 300-350lm/s for weeks. It don't take a rocket scientist to figure out when you hear terms like Angular momentum,Torque,and Global Wind what's really going on here. Carry on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 Well I'd love to see some fun this winter but being honest, I have NO realistic hope of cold or snow for my area. No matter which index or cycle we hang our hats on every year, none of them seem to result in a good setup for the 85 and south crowd anymore. I can get a couple of sloppy inches from a Miller B changeover but that is literally the only set up where I can get anything at all, and there's no such thing as Miller As or ULLs that deliver anymore. My son has been asking about when we'll see snow and I'm trying not to break his heart, but I have no confidence anymore. It's kinda like being a Gamecock fan (which I am). You keep thinking the stars will align and the odds will be in your favor eventually, but... What I'd give for one more of these setups! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 8 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: MJO weakening and crawling in the COD(Nov.28th-Dec.4th),right on time to me.No full pull to the Maritime because in my opinion the solar wind /CME rotation running real low. this cycle.Pattern relaxing as expected as i see a 594dm death ridge parked over S.Florida and most of the Gulf of Mexico this morning.Lag times have been real short with this cycle,almost cut in half so it might try to sneak out earlier than expected(Dec.6th-Dec-12th)so we'll see. It should come out and move till around Dec.26th,-Jan.1st but if the lag times continue to shorten everything gets moved up(Dec.22nd-Dec.28th).My opinion is the whole solar wind field has been extremely low since about Oct.10th and the CME rotations have been much weaker. Dec.8th could be pivotal as a CME is forecasted to arrive.this could lock up the MJO if its strong and lasts a few days. Just my opinion. NC, happy Thanksgiving to you and your family. I have one question. Is there anyway to tell if and when the mjo may go to the colder phases? I know the IOD is pretty positive right now. I was just confused on what you said here and the below paragraph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 15 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: NC, happy Thanksgiving to you and your family. I have one question. Is there anyway to tell if and when the mjo may go to the colder phases? I know the IOD is pretty positive right now. I was just confused on what you said here and the below paragraph. Looks like the MJO is struggling to push into phase 3 by Dec.15th just looking at the latest forecasts which make sense in my opinion.This latest solar wind/CME/ sun rotation exited on 11/28 meaning low solar wind,+GLAMM are returning now.This should continue till December 18th when the next high solar wind/CME rotation comes in and weakens the MJO or pushes it to Maritime after the 18th. Phase 1 and 2 are colder for Eastern US in December,low solar/EEP +GLAMM don't equal Maritime forcing or Indian forcing so I'd be very cautious throwing out big December warmups at least through Dec.18th. +GLAMM/low solar/EEP into an El Nino promotes blocking as well,you could easily get 7-10 days of some sort blocking in between solar rotations in my opinion.The QBO is a whole different matter, stratospheric anomalies tend to be transmitted down to the troposphere during an easterly QBO rather more than a westerly one. Strong research that -QBO with low solar promote blocking as well. Just my opinion. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 11 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: Looks like the MJO is struggling to push into phase 3 by Dec.15th just looking at the latest forecasts which make sense in my opinion.This latest solar wind/CME/ sun rotation exited on 11/28 meaning low solar wind,+GLAMM are returning now.This should continue till December 18th when the next high solar wind/CME rotation comes in and weakens the MJO or pushes it to Maritime after the 18th. Phase 1 and 2 are colder for Eastern US in December,low solar/EEP +GLAMM don't equal Maritime forcing or Indian forcing so I'd be very cautious throwing out big December warmups at least through Dec.18th. +GLAMM/low solar/EEP into an El Nino promotes blocking as well,you could easily get 7-10 days of some sort blocking in between solar rotations in my opinion.The QBO is a whole different matter, stratospheric anomalies tend to be transmitted down to the troposphere during an easterly QBO rather more than a westerly one. Strong research that -QBO with low solar promote blocking as well. Just my opinion. I talked to a guy at the CPC today and he believes the mjo gets into the warm phases and by beginning of January it could go back to the cold phases. That's just his opinion obviously. Maybe you can answer this. Lets say the mjo goes into the COD after being in the warm phases, is there anyway to tell what phase the mjo could propagate into? Despite the +IOD that i hear about, im surprised if the mjo will go into the warm phases,and if it does, it would be eerily similar to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 MJO re emerging In phase 2 today and right on time(Dec.6th-Dec.12th).Should continue there till around Dec.18th-Dec.22nd if we get a short lag time.Weakens or a pull to Maritime and we get a brief relaxing of the pattern afterwards. MJO should reemerge around Dec.26th-Jan.1st if we get the short lag time,pattern reloads but these lag times are getting shorter because in my opinion of very,very,low solar wind?EEP and shorter/weaker CME rotations.I counted 5 days this week where it went below 300km/s. Just my opinion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 6 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: MJO re emerging In phase 2 today and right on time(Dec.6th-Dec.12th).Should continue there till around Dec.18th-Dec.22nd if we get a short lag time.Weakens or a pull to Maritime and we get a brief relaxing of the pattern afterwards. MJO should reemerge around Dec.26th-Jan.1st if we get the short lag time,pattern reloads but these lag times are getting shorter because in my opinion of very,very,low solar wind?EEP and shorter/weaker CME rotations.I counted 5 days this week where it went below 300km/s. Just my opinion. Excellent stuff! Keep it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just looking at the Euro/Berlin strat site,I see the QBO forecast to switch to easterly in 5-7 days at 30hpa at the equator.That's pretty significant. Sooner the better because it's going to take a while to bust up that strong PV that's running pretty strong at the moment,least a month or so to feel any effects. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Cold nasty rain today. Low of 38.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Euro seasonal looks better today,this updates every 13th day of the month.Much better blocking showing up south of Alaska now,.Heights across the lower 48 much lower this was all in the 40%-50%-50%-60% above average(light/moderate yellow) in November.Better heights in Greenland this was all mostly 40%-50% below average(light blue) in November as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: Euro seasonal looks better today,this updates every 13th day of the month.Much better blocking showing up south of Alaska now,.Heights across the lower 48 much lower this was all in the 40%-50%-50%-60% above average(light/moderate yellow) in November.Better heights in Greenland this was all mostly 40%-50% below average(light blue) in November as well. Thanks for posting. How's the solar stuff looking @NC_hailstorm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 MJO weakening and entering the COD right on time (Dec.18th-Dec.22nd)and entering the relaxing/warming period .Everything looks on schedule to me. Still think the MJO reemerges around Dec.26th-Jan.1st ,getting a short/weak rotation so far only a 4 day event with kp4 levels and solar wind/EEP only cracking 550km/s nothing to stall it or loop it in my opinion.GLAMM and torque should respond as the forcing moves back equatorially. It might sneak into p6 but this should enter p7 rapidly and keep moving(p8 p1) till around Jan.14th when the next rotation begins.Then we get another relaxing/warmer period(5-7 days) around and after then. Just my opinion. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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